5 min read

Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles' WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup

divisional round underdog high/low picks

Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline eight Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Travis Etienne Lower than 3.0 Receptions - Josh Larky

  • Etienne has played 18 career games in the NFL and has four or more receptions in none of them
  • This line should either push (money back), or Etienne should go lower

Brandon Aiyuk Higher than 55.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

  • Aiyuk is higher in five of seven games with Brock Purdy at quarterback
  • Aiyuk is higher in 12 of 18 games overall this season.
  • Since Purdy became QB, Aiyuk is averaging 75 air yards per game
    • No other 49ers player is averaging even 40 air yards per game during this span

A.J. Brown Higher than 74.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

  • Brown has more than 74.5 receiving yards in four straight, including Week 18 against this same Giants team
  • The Giants use man defense more than any other team in the NFL, and Brown lead the NFL in receiving yards against man coverage
    • Brown is also third in the NFL (minimum 100 routes run) in yards per route run against man, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams
  • Receivers in a similar tier to Brown all went higher against the Giants (CeeDee Lamb twice, Justin Jefferson)

Joe Mixon Higher than 25.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

  • Mixon has higher than this number in nine of 15 games (60%) this season
  • Mixon averaged 31.5 receiving yards per game in 2022
  • The Bengals are down three offensive line starters, and Burrow will need to get the ball out quickly against Buffalo
    • Expect an increase in dump-offs to Mixon


Richie James Lower than 46.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

  • James had fewer than 46.5 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games played
  • This line is the highest among other Giants receivers (Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton)
  • The Eagles allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game to opposing WRs in the regular season
  • James played only 60% of the snaps last week, which was his fewest since Week 13

Trevor Lawrence Higher than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - Josh Larky

  • Lawrence was higher than this number in only eight of 18 games (44%)
  • But, every quarterback that faced the Chiefs threw for at least two touchdowns this year, except:
    • Malik Willis
    • Bryce Perkins
    • Geno Smith without Tyler Lockett
    • Russell Wilson in Week 17 (he had three passing TDs against the Chiefs in the first matchup, and then ran in two during the second matchup)
    • Jarrett Stidham in Week 18
  • So while a QB threw for multiple TDs in 12 of 17 games against Kansas City, practically every competent QB hit this number against the Chiefs
  • The Chiefs allowed 33 passing TDs, four more than any other team this season

Isiah Pacheco Lower than 13.5 Rushing Attempts - Ben Wolby

  • Pacheco had fewer than 13.5 rushing attempts in 11 of 17 games, as well as fewer in two straight
  • Ronald Jones saw 10 carries and averaged 4.5 yards per carry in Week 18 – I think he’s likely to see a few carries if active
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was designated to return from injured reserve and is likely to eat into this workload if activated
  • Jerick McKinnon is the most valuable player in this backfield. Though he’s most likely to see passing-down work, he’s still averaging just more than four carries per game
  • Despite nearly always being in a positive game script, Kansas City still runs the ball at the seventh-lowest rate

DeVonta Smith Higher than 63.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

  • Smith was without a catch in Week 1
    • Since then, ten of 16 games have been higher than this number
  • Smith is averaging 70.4 receiving yards per game, which includes the zero from Week 1.
  • Smith had eight targets in each game against the Giants during the regular season.
    • Smith was higher in both contests.
  • Smith has been higher than this number in six straight games.
  • Our Head of DFS, Jordan Vanek, released an incredible coverage article this week that details why Smith should feast against the Giants, given their propensity to play man coverage.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

WATCH: Divisional Round Betting Preview