Betting
1/29/24
3 min read
First Look at Betting Super Bowl 2024: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Super Bowl is now set between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. The big game is two weeks away, but numerous betting options are already available. Let’s take an early look at these teams and some early betting markets.
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Spread: 49ers -1
Total: 47.5
Weather: Indoor stadium
Line Movement
As of Monday morning there has only been minor line movement between 49ers -1 and 49ers -1.5. If this sticks, this will be the third game in a row that Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are underdogs.
The total has not moved from its opening of 47.5 points at most national sportsbooks.
Previewing Both Offenses
| Per Game Category | Chiefs | 49ers |
| Points Per Game | 21.8 (15th) | 28.9 (3rd) |
| Total Yards | 351.3 (9th) | 398.4 (2nd) |
| Passing Yards | 246.4 (6th) | 257.9 (4th) |
| Rushing Yards | 104.9 (19th) | 140.5 (3rd) |
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Kansas City’s offense relied on Patrick Mahomes’ passing attack. This group struggled as a whole throughout the regular season, but they saved their best football for the postseason. Travis Kelce and rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice are the two main veins of Kansas City’s passing attack. Every other pass catcher is a role player in this offense.
San Francisco has an ultra-talented, well-rounded offense that can win in various ways. That also means that their premium skill position players can reasonably exceed expectations. Brock Purdy has been extremely effective in the vast majority of his starts over his two-year career. When he struggles, it’s often pressure-related.
Check out early prop lines here.
Previewing Both Defenses
| Per Game Category | Chiefs | 49ers |
| Points Allowed | 17.3 (2nd) | 17.5 (3rd) |
| Total Yards | 289.8 (2nd) | 303.9 (8th) |
| Passing Yards | 176.5 (4th) | 214.2 (14th) |
| Rushing Yards | 113.2 (18th) | 89.7 (3rd) |
The Chiefs’ defense has carried its high-end play into the postseason, especially in Baltimore last week. Kansas City’s secondary has been particularly strong this season, though their run defense is league-average.
San Francisco’s supremely talented defense has struggled in each of its postseason games. The 49ers’ pass rush is the key to their defensive success. San Francisco is very hard to beat when it creates consistent havoc in the passing game. Teams that can mitigate them, like the Lions and Ravens recently did, can exceed expectations.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Virtually every player that isn’t an offensive lineman has Super Bowl MVP odds at most sportsbooks. These 12 options have the clearest paths to contention for this award.
| Patrick Mahomes +130 | Brock Purdy +210 | Christian McCaffrey +480 |
| Travis Kelce +2000 | Deebo Samuel +3800 | Isiah Pacheco +4000 |
| Brandon Aiyuk +4700 | Rashee Rice +6000 | George Kittle +7500 |
| Nick Bosa +10000 | Chris Jones +13000 | Fred Warner +19000 |
The quarterback of the winning team often wins the Super Bowl MVP. That said, two of the past five Super Bowl MVPs were wide receivers from the winning team. A running back has not won since Terrel Davis did so in Super Bowl XXXII in 1998. A tight end has never won this award, though this game features two of the best in history.
If you like deep longshots, 49ers centerpiece Fred Warner is an interesting option, as two of the past 10 winners were linebackers. One of those linebackers was Von Miller, who is more of a pass rusher than a traditional linebacker. That makes Nick Bosa and Chris Jones two more deep long shots who warrant consideration.
