Betting
1/31/24
7 min read
Betting Super Bowl 2024: Chiefs-49ers Player Prop Guide
This player prop guide for the Kansas City Chiefs-San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl helps you navigate through the nine star players you’ll see on Sunday, Feb. 11. Line movement and key stats are discussed for each player. Next week, we’ll have a breakdown of the anytime touchdown market, along with a guide to all the novelty props for the Super Bowl.
All betting odds/lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.
To see the full list of opening betting lines, refer to this article from earlier in the week.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Passing Yards: Over/Under 258.5
Passing Completions: Over/Under 25.5
Passing Attempts: Over/Under 36.5
Passing Touchdowns: Over is -140, Under is +110
Throws an Interception: Over 0.5 is -120, Under is -110
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 25.5
Rushing Attempts: Over 4.5 is -130, Under 4.5 is +100
Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards line hasn’t moved, but there is now heavy juice (-130) to the over. Still, 258.5 yards is a generally better number than the 262.5 that FanDuel’s offering.
ESPN Bet has Mahomes at 258.5 yards at -115 to the over and under. Mahomes was 8-8 on this line during the regular season and has 241 or fewer yards in two of three playoff games. The 49ers have allowed just seven of 19 quarterbacks faced to top 252 passing yards.
After opening at 26.5 yards with heavy juice to the over, his rushing yards line is now at 25.5 with minimal juice. Mahomes rushed for at least 26 yards in nine of 16 games during the regular season, but he’s hit 20 yards just once in his three playoff games.
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards: Over/Under 243.5
Passing Completions: Over/Under 21.5
Passing Attempts: Over/Under 31.5
Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 1.5
Throws an Interception: Over 0.5 is -110, Under is -120
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 12.5
Rushing Attempts: Over 2.5 is -166, Under 2.5 is +130
Brock Purdy’s passing yards opened at 247.5, and his pass attempts at 32.5. Both these numbers have come down, likely due to the Chiefs' strong pass defense and Purdy’s struggles in the playoffs.
After averaging an NFL-high 9.6 yards per pass attempt during the regular season, he’s at just 7.4 in the playoffs. His league-leading seven percent touchdown rate has also plummeted to 2.9 percent in the past two games.
The Chiefs have held 12 of 20 opposing quarterbacks to 235 or fewer yards passing, including the three playoff games they’ve played. For those wanting to bet against Purdy, FanDuel lists his passing yards at the higher number of 245.5 (-110). Overall, the betting public has started to sour on Purdy based on the passing yardage line movement, while expecting a big game from Christian McCaffrey (see below).
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 89.5
Rushing Attempts: Over/Under 18.5
Receptions: Over 4.5 is -150, Under 4.5 is +120
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 36.5
Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards opened at 87.5, and his attempts are now slightly juiced (-120) to over 18.5. Only the Denver Broncos allowed more yards per carry to opposing running backs during the regular season than the Chiefs.
However, the Chiefs' defense has been successful during its past five games at stopping the run, allowing just three yards per carry from Week 17 through the AFC Championship game against Baltimore. There’s a chance the rising rushing lines correlate with Purdy’s falling passing props, as McCaffrey has run for at least 90 yards and two touchdowns in both playoff games.
Isiah Pacheco
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 70.5
Rushing Attempts: Over 16.5 is -145, Under 16.5 is +100
Receptions: Over 3.5 is +135, Under 3.5 is -175
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 17.5
Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards have ticked up from 68.5 on Sunday night, and his rush attempts are now even more heavily juiced to the over. Aaron Jones carried 18 times for 108 yards (6.0 YPC) in the Wild Card Round before David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 138 yards on 27 carries (5.1 YPC).
Last week, Pacheco handled 24 of the 25 running back carries for 68 yards against a tough Ravens defense. Including last week’s performance, Pacheco has only topped 70.5 yards in six of 17 games this season, so the 49ers’ struggling run defense is likely fueling his rushing lines.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice
Receptions: Over/Under 6.5
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 66.5
San Francisco allowed the 20th most receiving yards per game to wideouts (146) this year (including the playoffs). While Rashee Rice only averaged 4.9 receptions and 58.6 yards per game during the regular season, he, like many rookie receivers, came on stronger during the second half.
In his past nine games, he’s averaged seven receptions and 82 yards per game, topping his receptions prop in six and his yardage line in five. In that nine-game span, Rice averaged 32 percent of the team’s receiving yardage. With Mahomes’ prop at 258.5, Rice would put up nearly 83 yards if he were to perform at recent levels.
On the other end, if you’re concerned about Rice, bet his 6.5 receptions at -110 to the under on FanDuel - it’s juiced to -120 on DraftKings.
Brandon Aiyuk
Receptions: Over/Under 4.5
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 63.5
There has been no line movement for Brandon Aiyuk’s props on DraftKings. FanDuel has these same props at -110, rather than DraftKings’ -115 for those looking for the best line. The matchup against the Chiefs is further explored in the Deebo Samuel section (below).
Deebo Samuel
Receptions: Over 4.5 is -130, Under 4.5 is +105
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 55.5
Rushing Yards: Over 13.5 is -130, Under 13.5 is +100
Deebo Samuel’s receiving yardage opened at 56.5, a number it’s still listed at on FanDuel. His receptions opened at 5.5, with -150 juice to the under, and has since to 4.5, now with -130 juice to the over. After five straight games with 48 or fewer yards, Samuel erupted for eight catches and 89 yards last week against Detroit, one of the NFL’s most beatable secondaries.
This week’s matchup against Kansas City is much tougher, with the Chiefs allowing 57 fewer yards per game to wide receivers. Samuel’s average depth of target (7.1 yards) was less than half that of Aiyuk (13.8) during the regular season, and he could see a usage spike if Purdy is under pressure.
Samuel’s rushing yardage is 15.5 on FanDuel, with -110 odds on each end. No major sportsbook has a rush attempts line out for him.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Receptions: Over 7.5 is +110, Under 7.5 is -140
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 69.5
Travis Kelce’s receptions line opened at 6.5, with heavy juice (-150) to the over, and has risen a full reception while swinging the other way. If you have a strong stance on Kelce’s receptions line, the most playable options (unfortunately) are under 6.5 receptions on FanDuel (+122) or over 7.5 on DraftKings (+110).
Kelce’s receiving yardage line is at 70.5 on FanDuel, for context. Kelce has at least 71 receiving yards in all three playoff contests, with five, seven and 11 receptions. However, during the regular season, Kelce only crested 70 receiving yards in five of 15 games.
Because Kelce and Kittle are two of the NFL’s best tight ends, no traditional tight end metrics from the regular season or playoffs should be used to evaluate these two defenses. The 49ers do have the far superior linebacking core though, and they are an overall stronger defense in the middle of the field.
George Kittle
Receptions: Over 3.5 is -166, Under 3.5 is +130
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 46.5
George Kittle opened at 48.5 yards on DraftKings, with heavy juice (-130) to the over. That has since come down to 46.5, though the number is still as high as 48.5 yards on FanDuel. His reception line has also fallen, opening at 4.5 - though the under was at -150.
Kittle has recorded under 3.5 receptions in 11 of 18 games, with several of his big performances coming when Samuel missed time. Because of a career-high 15.7 yards per reception this year, Kittle has had at least 54 receiving yards in 11 of 18 contests, despite the low reception totals.
