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Best Bets for Super Bowl LVIII

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Brock Purdy
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) hands off to running back Christian McCaffrey (23) against the Philadelphia Eagles. (Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)

Below, you’ll find the best bets for the Kansas City Chiefs-San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl. The team of Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Ahaan Rungta, and Patrick H. are working to find the best player prop bets and will be posting them in this article.

You can also find all our plays in our FREE Discord, in the prop-bets channel. Some of the player props listed below have slightly different lines now, and our Discord is the best place to get immediate access to the bets being placed throughout the week.

View opening player prop lines here.

View our player prop guide for every key player here.

Top Super Bowl Player Prop Bets

49ers vs. Chiefs

Spread: 49ers -2

Total: 47 Points

Location: Las Vegas

Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush OVER 14.5 Yards

Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings

Isiah Pacheco ran an elite 4.37 40-yard time at the 2022 NFL Combine. His speed and ferocity are the two reasons he’s the Chiefs' starting running back. This season, he's had a run of 15 or more yards 10 times (13 total runs). Overall, once every 20.6 carries (4.85 percent) Pacheco runs for at least 15 yards. 

The 49ers allowed a running back to hit 15 rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, but their run defense declined for much of the season. After only allowing one carry of 15 or more yards through the first five games, nine of the next 14 games had a running back carry that went for at least 15 yards. Since Week 6, one in 17 running back carries has gone for at least 15 yards against the 49ers' defense (5.9 percent). 

Pacheco’s rush attempts line is at 16.5, and if he has at least 15 carries on Feb. 11, he will have a rush of at least 15 yards more often than the odds imply — we’ll spare you the detailed math. The 49ers have a struggling run defense, and Pacheco has 24, 15 and 24 carries in three playoff games this year.

Noah Gray OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: -110 FanDuel

Noah Gray has beaten this number in 12 of his 19 games this season. In 10 of those games, Gray beat this number on a single reception. Additionally, Gray went under this number in the regular-season finale, so he’s technically 12 of 18 when Patrick Mahomes starts.

Gray also exceeded this number in two of his three playoff games. The lone miss came in the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore, where he saw five targets. Gray is far from the centerpiece of the Chiefs’ passing attack, but he’s a reliable option who has seen significant playing time for years. It would be no surprise if he beat this number on one catch early in the game.

PARLAY: Christian McCaffrey OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards + Brock Purdy UNDER 31.5 Passing Attempts

Best Odds: +210 on DraftKings

Christian McCaffrey had at least 90 rushing yards in 11 of 18 games this season. The Chiefs allowed the second-highest yards per carry to running backs during the regular season while being one of the premier pass defenses.

Brock Purdy has gone under 31.5 pass attempts in 15 of 18 games. With his struggles in both playoff games (7.4 yards per pass attempt compared to 9.6 in the regular season), it would make sense for the 49ers to lean more on the run in the Super Bowl.

The 49ers are slight favorites, but even if the Chiefs take an early lead, San Francisco has still shown a commitment to running the ball, regardless of the game script. Despite trailing in both playoff games, McCaffrey still had at least 17 carries and 90 rushing yards in both.

We are partnered with Betr. Use promo code 33rdTeam to get a 100 percent deposit match up to $500 upon sign-up, which is five times the industry standard for fantasy picks apps. Many picks analogs for these player props exist on the Betr app. Two weeks ago, we hit on a 9x entry in the Buccaneers-Lions game, turning $50 into $450. Stay tuned for this week’s Betr picks, coming later this week.

Tags: Betting