NFL Analysis


21 min read

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Insider Predictions For Entire First Round

The week of the 2024 NFL Draft is finally here. This is my only mock draft — and it is not what I think teams should do, but rather, what people around the league believe will happen. Trades are not included in this exercise.

Let’s jump in.


1. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 214 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: This pick has been locked in for months now. The Chicago Bears have never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a season. The Bears hope Caleb Williams does that and a lot more for the city of Chicago, which has been desperately waiting for a franchise quarterback.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 210 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: The Washington Commanders have taken a unique approach to their quarterback search, involving many voices, including former Golden State Warriors GM Bob Myers and minority owner Magic Johnson, among others. The prevailing belief for weeks has been that the coaching staff, including coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, are most enthusiastic about Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.

If there's a sudden change in the final week, it wouldn’t be something new for GM Adam Peters. He was in San Francisco when the organization pivoted from considering Mac Jones to selecting Trey Lance in the final week before the 2021 NFL Draft. I still believe it’ll end up being Daniels.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 223 pounds
Class: R. Sophomore

Fit: Owner Robert Kraft has openly stated that he wants to see the New England Patriots select a quarterback in this draft. Considering the Patriots have yet to hire a full-time general manager, I imagine Elliot Wolf is aware of what his owner wants as he tries to secure the full-time gig. A couple of teams have tried to trade up with the Patriots, and the presuming belief is that those teams want Drake Maye.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 209 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: Arizona Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has indicated to other teams that he’s open to trading down, but Arizona's asking price has been relatively high. This team already has six picks in the top 90, so the Cardinals aren’t in dire need of more picks.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is considered the best receiver on most draft boards and will immediately become the top target for Kyler Murray in an offense that quietly features some solid pieces, with Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Trey McBride and James Conner.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 321 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: New Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh is all about getting more physical up front. While I could see a receiver going here, there was one quote I picked up from GM Joe Hortiz last week at his pre-draft presser: "I can promise you that wide receiver is going to be a deep position in the draft every year. It's just the way the game has changed and evolved."

So yes, the Chargers need to replace Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but they could get a receiver later in the draft. This also could be a trade-down spot because the Chargers covet a few of the top offensive linemen. If they go with Joe Alt, the plan would more than likely be to play him at right tackle.

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Height: 6-foot
Weight: 200 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: I think the New York Giants will address quarterback in this draft at some point, but it's hard to believe they’ll do it at No. 6. There have been rumblings that they love Maye, but that would require a trade-up.

In this mock, they'll get some help for quarterback Daniel Jones, whom they paid $81 million fully guaranteed a year ago. Some teams have Malik Nabers as the top receiver in this class, and most consider it to be a 1A/1B type of situation with Harrison. I also wouldn’t sleep on TE Brock Bowers here.

7. Tennessee Titans

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 342 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: The worst-kept secret in the league is that the Tennessee Titans would like to come away with an offensive tackle, and the strong belief is they’d like to draft Alt. They’re essentially in the same situation the Jets were in last year when everyone knew they wanted a tackle, and the Steelers then jumped them for Broderick Jones.

If Alt is off the board, which he is in this mock, then this could be the sweet spot for a team to trade up and get the quarterback it covets. Tennessee could then draft one of the other available tackles, or the Titans could stick and secure whoever the second-ranked tackle is on their board. JC Latham is a mountain of a man and played primarily at right tackle at Alabama. 

8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 247 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: The Atlanta Falcons have been all offense this offseason, but they finally turn to defense at No. 8. Alabama's Dallas Turner, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, had 10 sacks last season for the Crimson Tide and would be an immediate starter for head coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons' top two leaders in sacks last season were Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell, and both are still free agents, which should tell you everything about how much help Atlanta could use.

Byron Murphy also could be an intriguing option up here for the Falcons. 

9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 212 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: Once the Bears come back on the clock at No. 9 they will only have three picks remaining in this draft, so they’re another team that would make sense to trade down. Ryan Poles has already traded down seven times in his short tenure as general manager.

If they stick, it’s difficult to see them passing on Rome Odunze, who would join DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. That would be pretty good company for Caleb Williams.

10. New York Jets

Troy Fautanu, OL, Washingon

Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) blocks for tight end Devin Culp (83) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 317 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: The New York Jets quickly learned last season that having Aaron Rodgers could be special, but not having proper protection defeats everything. They’ve done a nice job this offseason, adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson to go with Joe Tippmann and Alijah Vera Tucker, who is coming back from an Achilles tear. That likely will be their starting five, but they need more capable players should there be injuries — which is likely considering the injury history of some of those guys.

Troy Fautanu could, at the minimum, start by competing for the starting left guard spot with Simpson, and he could be an immediate option at left tackle should something happen to Smith, who is on a one-year contract. Any injury on this line could be shored up with the positional flexibility of Simpson, Vera-Tucker and Fautanu.

11. Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 219 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: A trade-up could likely be required for the Minnesota Vikings to get a quarterback in this draft, but I don’t think they will have to go all the way to No. 4 with Arizona the way most people think, especially if it’s for J.J. McCarthy. Assuming it can’t get Maye, Minnesota could be more patient and let the draft come to them; trading up to No. 7 or 8 would make more sense.

McCarthy is the most polarizing quarterback of the top four. Still, he would walk into easily the best position of anyone: Minnesota has the play-caller in Kevin O’Connell, the playmakers with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones, and the protection with bookend tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. 

12. Denver Broncos

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 243 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: Many mocks have pegged the Denver Broncos as a quarterback team, and maybe they ultimately are. However, multiple people have stressed that the organization likes Jarrett Stidham much more than the general public understands. If that is the case, Sean Payton goes out and gets him another weapon with Brock Bowers.

The Georgia standout does far more than just play tight end; he could be used as a slot receiver, line up outside or block inline. Payton would be able to use him in all sorts of ways in his offense.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during a game at Stanford Stadium. (Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 340 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: The Las Vegas Raiders have been rumored as a quarterback team, but the sense has been they were highest on Jayden Daniels, who is long gone in this mock. I could see Michael Penix Jr. coming into play, but that would probably be later in the first round if they wanted to trade back in.

For now, this team has a glaring hole at right tackle after Jermaine Eluemunor's departure in free agency, and Taliese Fuaga could be an instant starter. The First-Team All-American is the most physical blocker in this draft and would fit right in with Antonio Pierce’s mindset of what being a Raider is.


Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 312 pounds
Class: R. Junior

Fit: The New Orleans Saints have not seen what they have wanted out of former first-round pick Trevor Penning, and All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk could miss this entire season because of a knee injury.

Whichever tackle is left on the board at this point feels like the likely choice in New Orleans. Olu Fashanu would be an instant plug-and-play starter for the Saints considering their situation.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Height: 6-foot
Weight: 195 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: The Indianapolis Colts re-signed just about everyone this offseason as they prepare to get a healthy Anthony Richardson back.

There still is a bit of a gaping hole at the perimeter corner, and Quinyon Mitchell would fit right in with what GM Chris Ballard looks for: size, speed (4.33), physicality, composure and a willingness to tackle. Mitchell's week at the Senior Bowl in Mobile was one of the most impressive of all players in attendance.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) during warmups against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 254 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: The Seattle Seahawks enter a new era with coach Mike Macdonald taking over for Pete Carroll. Jared Verse is as powerful as anyone in this class off the edge, thanks to his explosive get-off and hand usage.

Seattle’s run defense struggled severely during the second half of last season, and Verse can set a physical edge in the run game, which fits perfectly with what Seattle was missing last year. His energy is also tailor-made for Seattle and the culture it has had over the years.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Height: 6-feet-3
Weight: 209 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: The Jacksonville Jaguars added Gabriel Davis this offseason but their initial plan was to add Davis while also retaining Calvin Ridley. Ridley left for the division-rival Titans, leaving the Jaguars with a clear need for a big outside receiver.

Brian Thomas Jr. has the height, speed, length, ball skills and explosiveness to be that. His 17 touchdowns led the nation last season. Zay Jones, who has a $10 million cap hit, would find himself on the roster bubble if the Jaguars go receiver.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas

Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 297 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: Byron Murphy II is the one name who has picked up the most steam late in the draft process, and it wouldn’t shock me if he goes earlier than this. He is a bit undersized but creates havoc on the interior with his quick first step and powerful punch. He would be an immediate impact player for Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. 

19. Los Angeles Rams

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 214 pounds

Class: 5-Year Senior

Fit: I've been saying for weeks on The 33rd Team that the Los Angeles Rams' actions have told us they could be a sneaky quarterback team. First and foremost, Matthew Stafford is getting up there in age (36) and has no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season.

Second, Sean McVay previously considered leaving for TV but ultimately decided to stay with the next group of young players for the long run. So he needs to ensure he has his next guy in the building, and if he loves someone, he's winning that argument. Third, this team tried to trade for Sam Howell earlier this offseason but fell short of Seattle's offer.

I’m not sure if it's Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. or whoever, but I wouldn’t be stunned if L.A. went quarterback. I’ll give them Nix in this mock. The quarterback they don’t take won't hear his name until the second round.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Jackson Powers-Johnson crouches over the ball
Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) signals against the Washington State Cougars in the 4th quarter at Autzen Stadium. (Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-3

Weight: 328 pounds

Class: Junior

Fit: The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have a clear-cut starting center after releasing Mason Cole earlier this offseason. Jackson Powers-Johnson is big and powerful and won the Rimington Award this past season as the nation's best center.

21. Miami Dolphins

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Height: 5-foot-11
Weight: 165 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: I had the trenches locked in for the Miami Dolphins until the very end, but then was convinced to put Xavier Worthy in after floating the idea to some people.

How awesome would it be to add Mr. 4.21 to an offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane? Would Mike McDaniel be able to resist? I would love to see it happen just for the internet to break trying to imagine it. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Height: 6-foot
Weight: 189 pounds
Class: R. Sophomore

Fit: The Philadelphia Eagles have only two starters in their 30s on defense, cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Howie Roseman has never drafted a cornerback in the first round, so this would be a first for him. Terrion Arnold led the SEC in passes defended (17) and interceptions (five) this past season, and he has smooth footwork and can line up inside and outside.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 304 pounds

Class: Senior

Fit: The Minnesota Vikings could very well not even have this pick if they trade up, which many people think is likely. Jer'Zhan Newton had more than 100 pressures over the past two seasons, and some people rate him as the draft's top interior defensive lineman.

The First-Team All-American had surgery in January to repair a fracture in his foot and did not do any workouts during the pre-draft process.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 259 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: Laiatu Latu is probably the most natural pass rusher in the class, but his landing spot will depend on how he checked out medically for each team. He suffered a serious neck injury before the 2020 season while at Washington and was forced to retire. He eventually got medical clearance and had no issues over the past two seasons at UCLA, totaling 23 sacks.

The Dallas Cowboys have DeMarcus Lawrence entering the final year of his contract, and if Latu checks out medically, this is a steal at No. 24.

25. Green Bay Packers

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

Tyler Guyton blocks
Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-foot-8

Weight: 322 pounds

Class: RS Junior

Fit: The Green Bay Packers have always gone the developmental route with their offensive line and have been historically successful. While still a product, Tyler Guyton possesses raw pro undeniable size and skills, making this pick very much in line with the Packers' strategic style.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton
Duke Blue Devils offensive lineman Graham Barton (62) before a game at Kenan Memorial Stadium. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 313 pounds
Class: Senior

Fit: Graham Barton is a player who didn’t get much buzz this draft cycle but could get selected in Round 1, possibly even earlier than this by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He played left tackle for the last three years but is expected to move to the interior in the NFL, possibly at center where he started his career at Duke. 

27. Arizona Cardinals

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) reacts after the Hawkeyes score on a safety against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits during the third quarter at Kinnick Stadium. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 203 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: Cooper DeJean checked all the boxes he needed at his pro day as he returned from a leg fracture. He has a diverse skill set and would add immediate game-breaking ability to the backend of Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals defense.

28. Buffalo Bills

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: It’s not breaking news that the Buffalo Bills will add a receiver or two in this draft. Adonai Mitchell is a big speed threat who can run routes and create at all three levels. He would be a fun addition to this Bills team with Josh Allen.

29. Detroit Lions

Zach Frazier, OL, West Virginia

Zach Frazier blocks
West Virginia Mountaineers offensive lineman Zach Frazier (54) blocks during the first quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. (Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 313 pounds
Class: RS Junior

Fit: Zach Frazier is a former four-time state heavyweight wrestling champ in high school who brings nastiness to his game. That shouts coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes.

The Detroit Lions have Kevin Zeitler on a one-year deal, and Frank Ragnow has battled many injuries over the last few years. Detroit could play the long game with this pick. During his pre-draft press conference, Holmes said of the offensive line, "We're firm believers that that's where the game is won."

30. Baltimore Ravens

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Amarius Mims in his blocking stance
Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 340 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: Amarius Mims lacks experience (just 802 college snaps) but has the talent to become a long-term starter at either tackle spot. The Baltimore Ravens seem to be going year-to-year with Ronnie Stanley right now, which could make them the perfect spot for Mims.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 254 pounds
Class: Junior

Fit: The San Francisco 49ers prioritize pass-rushers with an elite first step, and that's precisely Chop Robinson's strength. He's somewhat raw, and his numbers are not eye-catching (his career-high in sacks is 5.5), but his flexibility, speed off the edge and physicality are at the level of a top-tier rusher potential. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

BYU Cougars offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia
Brigham Young Cougars offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia (78) prepares to block against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. (Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)

Height: 6-foot-5

Weight: 326 pounds

Class: RS Sophomore

Fit: Many people predict the Kansas City Chiefs will take a receiver, which makes sense, especially due to the Rashee Rice situation. But if there’s one thing the Chiefs have shown us over the past few years, it's that they are fine with finding receivers using other avenues than a first-round pick.

Kingsley Suamataia is a bit of a project, but he has the size and mobility to become a starting-level tackle in the NFL eventually. He started at right and left tackle at BYU. If there’s a team willing to be that patient, I see Andy Reid and the Chiefs as one of them.