Prop Bets

Betting

Super Bowl LVII Betting: 11 Player Props to Target

25 min Watch

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolby provide 11 Super Bowl player props to take ahead of next Sunday’s Eagles-Chiefs matchup. For each line, they provide their detailed reasoning behind betting on the specific prop.

The implied probabilities are included along with the odds to make the mathematical intuition easier. If a prop has odds of -110, this implies it should hit 52.4% of the time. So, if we take a -110 prop, we expect it to hit more often than 52.4 percent.

Team to Score Longest Touchdown: Eagles – Larky

Odds: -135 (57.5%) on Caesar’s

  • When looking at TD length from the 2022 regular season and playoffs in the table below, it immediately becomes clear that the Eagles should be extremely heavy favorites for this line.
Team Over 40 Yards 30-40 Yards 20-29 Yards
Eagles 5 6 7
Chiefs 4 2 3
  • This prop can be found roughly 50 spots down in the Novelty props tab of the Caesar’s Sportsbook mobile app.

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards – Wolby

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings

  • Last week, I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards
    • Burrow had rushes of 11 and 14 yards against the Chiefs
  • Quarterbacks rush against Kansas City at the third-highest rate this year, and they’re fairly efficient in doing so
  • The Chiefs allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to QBs, the second-most in the NFL
  • Hurts’ rush attempts line is 10.5, and he’s averaging 10 non-kneel-downs per game
  • Hurts is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards and had 11 in the regular season
    • But, including the playoffs and looking at a per-game basis (he missed time), he’s averaging just less than one per game but is fourth on a per-game basis
  • Hurts had a run of 14 yards last week against the 49ers, the second-best rush DVOA team in the NFL (the Chiefs are 15th), which came in the third quarter when up by two TDs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire First Player to 10 Rushing Yards – Larky

Odds: +3300 (2.9%) on FanDuel

  • This one’s hard to quantify precisely, but there’s definitely at least a one in 10 (probably one closer to one in four) chance that Edwards-Helaire, the former first round pick and early season primary ball carrier, is the Chiefs’ starting RB this Sunday.
  • If the Chiefs get the ball first, their starting RB has a great chance to hit 10 rushing yards first.

Noah Gray OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards – Reynolds

Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings

 

  • Gray has been over this number in 10 games this season.
  • The Chiefs already play a high amount of two tight end sets.
  • With the Chiefs WR injuries, it makes logical sense that they’ll continue this trend to better mitigate the Eagles’ pass rush.
  • Gray can top this number on one catch.

Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Completions – Larky

Odds: +102 (49.5%) on FanDuel

  • Jalen Hurts was over this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup
  • Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year
    • That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9
  • In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was over against Kansas City
  • The only QBs under this number were:

Team to First Record a Sack: Chiefs – Wolby

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on FanDuel

  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles have allowed:
    • Eight sacks in the first quarter
    • 21 sacks in the first half
  • In Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs have allowed:
    • Three sacks in the first quarter
    • 13 sacks in the first half
  • The Eagles are allowing three times the first quarter sack frequency.
  • While the Eagles are better at getting sacks than the Chiefs, Kansas City is more frequently sacking QBs early in games.
    • Not to mention, the Eagles had an easier schedule to help bolster their sack number total this season.

Jerick McKinnon Under 20.5 Yards Rushing – Larky

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on PointsBet

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer yards rushing in four of his past five games
  • McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl

McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards – Larky

Odds: -140 (58.3%) on FanDuel

  • Only seven of his 87 carries this year were over this number
    • That’s just one in 12.4 carries over this number for McKinnon
  • Only one of his past five games was more than five carries
  • Eleven carries is the most he’s had in any game this season
  • He’s averaged 1.8 yards per carry during his past five games
  • Edwards-Helaire should be activated ahead of this game, stealing carries from McKinnon
  • The Eagles’ run defense is roughly league-average during the past two months

Player to First Record a Reception: A.J. Brown – Wolby

Odds: +130 (43.5%) on DraftKings

 

  • DraftKings is pitting A.J. Brown (+130) against Travis Kelce (-165, 62.3%).
  • This is basically a “which team wins the coin flip” and if it’s the Eagles, you’re getting that at plus odds.
  • Travis Kelce has had a reception on 11 of 19 first drives.
  • Brown has had a reception on 12 of 19 first drives, and on 11 of 17 Jalen Hurts starting QB drives.
  • Whichever team wins the coin flip is likely winning this bet, but this is a juicier, better value way to bet on the Eagles to get the ball first.
  • This prop can be found by clicking on the “Super Bowl Specials” tab (don’t click into the game first), then scrolling to “Rec Props”

Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 Yards Rushing – Larky

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM

  • Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl
    • Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
  • Mahomes was under this number in nine of 19 games this year.
  • Mahomes averaged 21 yards rushing per game during the regular season when fully healthy
  • This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue
  • In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest

Shortest TD Yardage in Game OVER 1.5 Yards – Larky

Odds: +150 (40%) on Caesar’s Sportsbook

  • The Chiefs and Eagles each played 19 games (regular season + postseason), and each had six games with a 1-yard TD score.
  • Using 100,000 simulations in R, where one of the 19 games is randomly chosen for each of Kansas City and Philadelphia:
    • We should expect no 1-yard scores to occur in 46.7% of games
    • 46.7% is higher than the 40% implied odds
  • This prop can be found about 20 spots from the bottom of Caesar’s novelty props menu.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these 11 Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

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Betting

Super Bowl LVII: Ultimate Guide to Prop Betting, Office Pool Picks

46 min Watch

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl Squares Analysis

  • 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
  • 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
  • 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
  • 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid

 

Game/Team Props

Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)

  • The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
  • Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
  • Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
  • However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.

Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)

  • The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
  • Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.

Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)

  • The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
  • This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
  • Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
  • Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.

 

First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)

  • Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by a historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
  • Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
  • The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
  • Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.

Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650

  • Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
  • They are also the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
  • This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.

Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving

 

First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)

  • Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
  • In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
  • A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
  • Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.

First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)

  • This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
  • However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
  • With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
  • How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
  • Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.

First Touchdown Scorer

  • Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
  • Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
  • Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
  • Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
  • But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
  • With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
  • Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.

Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)

  • Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
  • But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
  • Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
  • Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.

 

Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)

  • The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
  • Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
  • In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
  • In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
  • Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.

First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat

  • Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
  • Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
  • But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
  • The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
  • Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
  • Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
  • Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
  • Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
  • Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
  • Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
  • If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
  • There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.

 

Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)

  • Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
  • They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
  • In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
  • It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.

Novelty Props

Gatorade Color

  • Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
  • If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
  • If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
  • Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.

 

National Anthem Length

  • The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
  • Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
  • Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.

Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit

  • In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
  • All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
  • “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
  • Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
  • However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
  • But Larky and Reynolds agree black is the color of choice.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

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Betting

Underdog Fantasy Picks for Super Bowl LVII

25 min Watch

I found three Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks that you should take ahead of next Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. For each pick, I’ll lay out the statistical and/or logical case behind it, so you can better understand my process.

 

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Jalen Hurts Higher than 21.5 Completions

  • Jalen Hurts was higher than this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup.
  • Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year.
    • That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9.
  • In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was higher against Kansas City.
  • The only QBs lower than this number were:

Jerick McKinnon Lower than 22.5 Rushing Yards

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.

Patrick Mahomes Lower than 18.5 Rushing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl.
    • Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
  • Mahomes was lower than this number in nine of 19 games this year.
  • Mahomes averaged 21 rushing yards per game during the regular season when fully healthy.
  • This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue.
  • In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

Watch: Early Super Bowl Betting Preview

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Super Bowl

Player Prop Happy Hour: Early Super Bowl Props

24 min Watch

The biggest week in prop betting is upon us, and The 33rd Team’s Betting and Fantasy experts have you covered with the best Super Bowl player props.

 

Ryan Reynolds’ Top 3 Props

Patrick Mahomes Oover Pass Completions 24.5 (-125 on BetMGM)

  • Patrick Mahomes has gone over this number in 11 of 19 games this season, including the playoffs. The Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league. They’re also projected to be a slight underdog in this game, so we can either reasonably expect this game to be close or for Kansas City to have to play from behind.
  • I also still expect more short throws to help Mahomes manage the pressure on his high ankle sprain. With the Chiefs going up against a talented Eagles defense, I could see an uptick of dump-off passes to running backs and outside screens to receivers.
  • The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in a pretty tough spot here against James Bradberry and Darius Slay, leading to more passes to the middle of the field. I think there’s a 70% chance this line goes over 24.5.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Over Tackles 5.5 (+115 on DraftKings)

  • Kansas City’s high-volume passing game puts the over in play. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a super-versatile player, playing roughly half his snaps as a safety, a quarter of them at slot corner and another quarter in the box. He saw a bit of an uptick in slot corner snaps when Avonte Maddox was banged up in Week 18 and again in the Divisional Round. He’s only beaten this number in five of 12 regular-season games. However, he’s had exactly five tackles in four other games, and another with five in the playoffs. So even when he falls below this, he’s right there within striking distance.

 

Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings)

  • This number’s a little lower than I think it should be. With that said, I’m not in love with it because I think potentially every Eagles receiver can get there. It’s one of the problems with picking any of their over/unders throughout the playoffs for me. That said, the Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points to the tight end position in the slot this year. Dallas Goedert plays 29% of his snaps in the slot.
  • Before Goedert got hurt, he was third in the league in yards after the catch, which is kind of mind-blowing if you really think about it. But part of the reason for that is because they design short-passing plays for him. So we can expect at least one or two of those. He beat this number in 9 of 14 games this year.
  • One issue I have with this, looking at it from a Chiefs’ perspective, they faced the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Raiders’ Darren Waller this year. Kittle had 98 yards receiving, Waller had 35 late in the year. But they didn’t play a top tight end otherwise. Both Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich of the Broncos reached 40 yards receiving against the Chiefs later in the season. So I think Goedert has a chance to reach 45.5 yards.

Ben Wolby’s Top 3 Props

Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • I was on Miles Sanders over 55.5 rushing yards early in the week. It’s since moved to 57.5 yards. When the Eagles are going up against bad rush defenses, Sanders has a good game. We’ve taken Sanders rushing overs against bad rushing defenses before.
  • But Kansas City, they don’t have a bad rushing defense; it’s just average. The Chiefs were ranked 15th throughout the regular season, but if we take a look at how they’ve been in the playoffs, they actually haven’t been great. They’re the second-worst playoff team when it comes to rushing DVOA. However, last week they held Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to a combined 41 rushing yards. We did see Travis Etienne get 62 yards on just 10 carries in the Divisional Round. Sanders’ attempts currently sit around 13.5.
  • Here’s where I get sold on this prop. If we take a look at games where Jalen Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game. He’s over this number in nine of 15 games and three of those losses came against top-10 DVOA teams.

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-105 on DraftKings)

  • If you watched the show last week, you know I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards; he had four rushes, two that went for 11 and 14 yards, which is also higher than Hurts’ line. Why did I take this last week? Because quarterbacks rush at the third-highest rate against Kansas City, and they’ve been good at doing it. The Chiefs are bad against rushing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to quarterbacks this season, second-most in the NFL.
  • Hurts’ rushing attempts line is 10.5. He’s averaging 10 rushes per game (that are not kneel-downs). So 10 attempts against this defense? It’s going to be hard to keep him under that number when he is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards with 11 in the regular season.
  • Last week, Hurts faced San Francisco and the second-best rush DVOA. He still had a 14-yard rush, which would have topped this line against one of the best rush defenses, and it came in the third quarter when the 49ers were up by two touchdowns.
  • Hurts is going to run the ball all the time. Whether the Eagles are down or whether they’re up, he’s going to run the ball.

 

Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Yards Passing (-117 on Caesars)

  • Hurts has only gone over this number in five of 18 games this year. Three of the games where he went over were against bottom-10 pass DVOA teams, including Chicago (last), Tennessee (28th) and Minnesota, which we were picking against all year. He also went over in a divisional game against Washington and against Pittsburgh without T.J. Watt.
  • Kansas City’s defense is average in pass DVOA. But during the second half of the season and the playoffs, there’s only one quarterback who has passed this number: Burrow. That is it. There have been so many other quarterbacks since Week 12 who have not topped this number. Furthermore, because it’s the Chiefs, the other quarterbacks were in a negative game script the entire time. Still, these quarterbacks were averaging just 204 yards per game, despite that losing game script.
  • The Eagles have the fourth-highest rush percentage among all teams in the regular season. Even when they are down by three or more, they are still rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Josh Larky’s Top 3 Props

Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games. He just hasn’t played much recently, and on top of that, he hasn’t been carrying the ball much. He’s had seven or fewer rushing yards in four of the last five games. It’s crazy this line is at 23.5.
  • McKinnon did beat that number once in those last five games when he had a season-high 11 carries for just 25 yards. So even when he had a season-high in carries, he barely cleared the number. McKinnon is averaging 1.8 yards per carry during the last five games.
  • The Eagles are an average run defense at this point. They were near the bottom early in the season. They fortified it by signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. Jordan Davis, their star first-round rookie, returned from injury.
  • There’s still a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated for this game. I think there’s a good chance he’s active instead of Ronald Jones, and I think they like him more than Jones. I don’t think this affects Isiah Pacheco at all. But I do think this could actually affect the few carries McKinnon has. They could just go to Edwards-Helaire as they deploy McKinnon mostly as a third-down back.

Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-125 on Draftkings)

  • Everything I talked about with McKinnon above still applies. This guy does not get a lot of carries. If we look at carries over 9.5 yards, we’re gonna take him under. He’s gone over this in five of his 87 carries in the regular season and in the playoffs; that is 1 in 17.5 carries. As I mentioned, his season-high is 11 carries. Only in one of his last five games did he reach five carries. I don’t understand how you would see this line and take the over.

 

Jalen Hurts OverPass Completions 21.5 (-108 on FanDuel)

  • This is -130 at pretty much every other book because people love this. This is a great play. But we’re gonna get it at -108.
  • Hurts was over this number in just five of his 17 games this season, including the playoffs. But let’s look at the matchup. Quarterbacks against Kansas City average 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game. Twenty-four is much higher than 21.5. And that includes the Malik Willis game, where he completed five passes. If we look at the 19 games the Chiefs have played, including playoffs, the opposing quarterback had more than 21.5 completions in 15 of them.
  • I think the Chiefs are the Vikings of completions overs because in pretty much every game, the opposing quarterback has an over. Here are the four quarterbacks who didn’t have more than 21.5 completions against the Chiefs this year: Derek Carr, Willis, Bryce Perkins and a game against the Texans where Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel split duties.
  • I understand Hurts runs a lot, but the Eagles have been very opponent-specific with their game plans. The Chiefs quietly allowed about 6.5 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is incredibly low.

 

In this article

Betting

5 Early Player Props to Bet in Super Bowl LVII

24 min Watch

While the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs don’t play for 13 more days, I’ve already found five Super Bowl player props I have put my money on. I expect these lines to move as the game draws closer, and I outline the logical/statistical case for each bet.

Along with the betting odds and sportsbook, I’ll provide the implied probability, too. If I’m taking a -115 bet, I’m expecting it to hit more often than the implied probability of 53.5%.

Jerick McKinnon UNDER 23.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings and BetMGM

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has only beat this number once in the past five games, when he carried 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league average the past two months.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.
  • This line is already down to 20.5 rushing yards at FanDuel.

DeVonta Smith OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings and BetMGM

  • DeVonta Smith has been OVER this number in 10 of his past 18 games (56%).
  • While Smith has been UNDER this number each of the past two games, the Eagles won by at least 24 points in both playoff games.
    • I would be completely shocked if the Eagles blew out the Chiefs, as the Chiefs haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.
  • Smith finished the 2022 NFL season on an absolute tear:
    • From Weeks 10-18, Smith averaged 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 83.8 receiving yards per game.
    • He was OVER this number in seven of those nine weeks prior to the playoffs.

Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings

  • Travis Kelce was OVER this number in 11 of 19 games (58%).
  • Kelce has been OVER this number in his past eight playoff games.
  • The Eagles are an elite pass defense overall, but they do allow a significant portion of receiving yards to go to TEs. Using our flagship tool, The Edge, I calculated the percentage of a team’s WR/TE receiving yards that came from TEs.
    • 26.6% of total receiving yardage from the WR/TE position came from TEs when facing the Eagles, the tenth highest figure this season.
  • Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are both questionable to play in the Super Bowl, so Kelce may be counted on even more than usual for this matchup.

 

Patrick Mahomes MOST Passing Yards in the Game

Odds: -220 (68.8%) on FanDuel

  • I don’t usually like betting on anything with so much juice, but mathematically, I like this play.
  • The included sample I used for this analysis was Patrick Mahomes’ 19 games and Jalen Hurts’ 17 games from the 2022 season/playoffs.
  • Running 100,000 simulations, I would randomly grab one pass yards game log from Mahomes and one from Hurts.
    • 72.9% of the time, Mahomes’ pass yards number was higher than Hurts’ number, which is better than the 68.8% implied probability of -220 odds.
  • During the regular season, Mahomes attempted 38.1 passes per game, while Hurts attempted just 30.7 passes per game.
  • During the regular season, the Eagles defense allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt, while the Chiefs defense was close behind, at 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
  • It’s tough to envision the Chiefs leaning on a running back room that’s averaging just 4.1 yards per carry over their past five games.
  • While the Eagles boast arguably the NFL’s top pass defense, Mahomes is the one QB that’s truly matchup-proof:
    • He threw for 338 yards against Buffalo, 423 yards against the 49ers, 329 yards against the Chargers, at least 328 yards in both games against the Broncos, and 326 yards against the Bengals (last week).
    • These are all top-12 pass defenses according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Skyy Moore Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +950 (10.5%) on PointsBet

  • Skyy Moore ran 29 routes in the Conference Championship game, with both Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney exiting early with injuries.
    • It’s too early in the week to speculate on their exact injury statuses for the Super Bowl, but neither is a guarantee to suit up.
  • Moore was targeted seven times on his 29 routes, and his targets per route run rate of 24% is very strong.
  • +950 odds for potentially a starting Chiefs WR is simply too good to pass up at this stage.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these five Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.

WATCH: Championship Review, Super Bowl Preview

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Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup

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Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline eight Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider. >> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to […]

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Wild Card Underdog High/Low Picks: 49ers’ Top Producers Good Picks vs. Seahawks
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline 11 Wild-Card Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider. >> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100. […]

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Josh Larky’s Wild-Card Weekend Parlays

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Josh Larky’s Wild-Card Weekend Parlays
Below, you’ll find five wild-card parlays I’ve taken ahead of this weekend’s playoff games. You’ll notice that this is most certainly not your typical parlay article, as there are no wild longshot bets with multiple uncorrelated parlay legs. All my analysis is statistically/logically motivated. For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. […]

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Betting

15 Favorite NFL Player Prop Bets in Week 18 Games

29 min Watch

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolbransky each name five of their favorite player props for Week 18  in the NFL (through Saturday’s games, they are 3-for-3):

Larky’s Top-5 Props

Deshaun Watson OVER 18.5 Rush Yds (-115 FanDuel)

Watson has topped this number in all five of his starts this season. The Steelers will play tight coverage and bring pressure, which will cause Watson to use his legs.

D.J. Chark OVER 40 Rec Yds (+120 FanDuel)

Chark is averaging 49 receiving yards per game, 40 fewer yards than one-sixth of Goff’s passing yards prop on FanDuel.

Robert Tonyan UNDER 24.5 Rec Yds (-110 DraftKings)

From Week 10 on, Tonyan has averaged 2.6 targets, 1.7 receptions and 18 receiving yards per game.

Chigoziem Okonkwo OVER 2.5 Receptions (+110 FanDuel)

In the past six games, Okonkwo has averaged 4.5 targets and 3.5 receptions per game. (UPDATE: Okonkwo had three receptions in the Titans’ loss Saturday night).

Travis Etienne UNDER 68.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Etienne faced the Titans in Week 14, giving him 17 carries to test the run defense. Even with 17 carries, he had only 32 rushing yards. (UPDATE: Etienne finished with 17 rushing yards on Saturday against the Titans).

Reynolds’ Top-5 Props

Diontae Johnson OVER 51.5 Rec Yds (-114 DraftKings)

The Browns have given up the eighth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers, and Johnson leads the league in perimeter snaps.

Jamaal Williams OVER 52.5 Rush Yds (-115 DraftKings)

Williams has beat this number in 11 games this season, and this number is as high as 56.5 on DraftKings.

Geno Smith OVER 237.5 Pass Yds (-114 FanDuel)

The Seahawks are highly motivated, and the Rams have a better run defense than pass defense.

Allen Lazard OVER 48.5 Rec Yards (BetMGM)

Lazard plays 35% of his snaps in the slot and has beaten this number in 8 of 14 games this season.

Hunter Renfrow OVER 226.5 Rec Yds (-114 DraftKings)

Renfrow has beaten this number every time he’s played the Chiefs in games played before this season.

 

Wolby’s Top-5 Props

Deshaun Watson UNDER 209 Pass Yds (-115 DraftKings)

Since T.J. Watt has come back from injury, the Steelers are allowing 106 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

Geno Smith OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (-115 DraftKings)

The Rams run the third-highest rate of Cover 3 in the league, and Smith leads the league in touchdowns against Cover 3 with eight.

Tyler Boyd OVER 28.5 Rec Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Boyd, who averages 57 yards per game in games that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins play in, will be going up against the Ravens, who allow the most yards to opposing wide receivers.

Cam Akers UNDER 74.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Akers has hit this number in the Rams’ last two games. 

Christian Kirk Longest Reception OVER 21.5 yards (-120 DraftKings)

The Titans have allowed 36 receptions of 22 yards or longer to wide receivers, which ranks fourth in the NFL. (UPDATE: Kirk’s longest reception Saturday night was 33 yards).

WATCH: Week 18 ‘Smash’ of the Week

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