Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup

Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup
Welcome to the NFL playoffs recap series. Each week, The 33rd Team’s Nic Bodiford will break down the results of the most recent playoff round, offering thoughts for NFL fans, fantasy football players and sports bettors. This article will provide you with important stats from the past weekend for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup and […]

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DFS

Previewing the Conference Championship DFS Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.

For the full breakdown of coverage analysis, click the link below!

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/dfs/defensive-coverage-breakdown-for-every-conference-championship-team/

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/ 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is not coming in popular with that ankle injury
  • In 2019, he had a high ankle sprain in Week 1 on the opposite foot, and in the next six weeks on the injury report averaged 300.3 yards passing and two passing touchdowns
  • The Cincinnati Bengals will likely play Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a high rate; Mahomes ranked ninth in yards per attempt amongst QBs with at least 100 snaps against it
  • Pair Mahomes with two pass-catchers in every build; for large field tournaments, three can be viable

Jalen Hurts

  • The San Francisco 49ers will play a lot of zone coverage, and Jalen Hurts ranked third in yards per attempt against zone amongst QBs with 100 snaps against it
  • Hurts is the only QB on the slate with an ability to run, and I expect him to use his legs against this 49ers defense
  • The game script can go either way, and I believe we will see a big game from Hurts
  • Hurts is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and I am willing to eat the chalk

Joe Burrow

  • The Kansas City Chiefs will run a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 2 coverage against Burrow
  • Joe Burrow averages 8.6 yards per attempt and a 70.4% completion percentage against these two coverages
  • Against the Chiefs, Burrow led seven drives of at least eight plays. Five of his drives lasted four minutes of game time, and they will likely attempt to do that again
  • The ceiling game for Burrow comes down to the offensive line holding up and his ability to continue attempting quick yardage throws
  • Burrow is ranked third amongst QBs, and I will be underweight compared to the field

Brock Purdy

  • I will not be playing Brock Purdy this weekend; the pricing doesn’t generate enough of an advantage for paying down, and I don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

  • The 49ers have the advantage in the run game, and Christian McCaffrey is chalk I am willing to buy into
  • McCaffrey has an injury to monitor, but Shanahan knows he has to dial up the run game for his rookie quarterback on the road
  • The Eagles have given up over 100 yards rushing in six straight weeks
  • The trenches tool gives the 49ers a significant advantage in the run game
  • If you are not playing McCaffrey, I recommend getting to Elijah Mitchell

Joe Mixon

  • Slow, methodical drives will lead to Joe Mixon rushing attempts 
  • Mixon did not play in the first matchup. Samaje Perine ran for 106 yards and had six receptions for 49 yards
  • Mixon is a target for Burrow out of the backfield and will get usage near the red zone
  • I don’t believe Mixon is a must-have, but the slate of RBs is weak, and it won’t take a big game to be in the optimal build

Jerick McKinnon

  • Jerick McKinnon is the Chiefs running back I want because of his ability to pass protect. Isiah Pacheco will out-carry him, but McKinnon will make it up in the passing game
  • McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, and I believe that was because of the Mahomes’ injury
  • McKinnon is projected to be more popular than Pacheco

Miles Sanders

  • I will not be getting Miles Sanders; I think the Eagles throw a lot more than run, and near the red zone, it will be Hurts

Elijah Mitchell

  • McCaffrey is nursing an injury, and so is Mitchell, but I expect him to get enough carries to be viable
  • Mitchell is my preferred punt play at running back because I expect the 49ers to be run-heavy

Samaje Perine

  • Perine played extremely well against the Chiefs and has played over 40% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks
  • The only problem with Perine is he is more popular than Mitchell, and Mitchell will likely see more touches

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase

  • The most popular wide receiver on the entire slate, and it’s for a good reason
  • Ja’Marr Chase averages 139 yards against the Chiefs and has four touchdowns in three games
  • This season, he came off an injury and had seven receptions for 97 yards in that game, and whenever they saw Cover 1, it was an easy play for him to make
  • If the Chiefs can play Cover 2 for most of the game, I don’t believe he will have a big game to pay off the price. If they get the lead and force them into Cover 1, the explosive play is just waiting to happen

A.J. Brown

  • The 49ers’ corners can be beaten on the outside, and A.J. Brown will be able to out-physical them the way we saw DK Metcalf do in the wild-card round
  • If the 49ers attempt to play more Cover 3 coverage, Brown will be the player to have, but in Cover 4, Smith has been the preferred option
  • Crossing routes have hurt the 49ers this season, and Brown has 19% of his targets on these routes

DeVonta Smith

  • DeVonta Smith has been the go-to for the Eagles against Cover 4, and in games where the 49ers will have the lead or be in a one-score game, they will play plenty of that coverage
  • Smith has had eight targets in every game since Week 10, and I don’t think he will be under that number in this one
  • Brown has the highest ceiling, but Smith can have a big game

 

Deebo Samuel

  • I don’t trust Purdy enough to make plays down the field against a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. Deebo Samuel has not been getting much usage in the ground game to compensate for that

Tee Higgins

  • Burrow spreads the ball against Cover 2 coverage, and I think that style of play will limit the pass-catching group
  • Tee Higgins is priced in a spot where he will be popular, but it is chalk I am willing to go to because he has a high ceiling
  • In Cover 1, I expect Chase to be the main focus for this defense, and they will try to trust their corners on an island vs. Higgins

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster is not great against man coverage. However, he will have the opportunity to run routes one on one with Eli Apple, and can win in that matchup

Brandon Aiyuk

  • The Eagles’ safeties stay over the middle of the field, and James Bradberry gets beat in man situations down the sidelines
  • The only concern I have for Brandon Aiyuk is Purdy’s ability to make the throw, but out of the 49ers’ pass-catchers, he is my preferred option

Tyler Boyd

  • Tyler Boyd led the team in yards against Cover 2 coverage and is someone Burrow likes to target
  • In Burrow stacks, I will get plenty of exposure to Boyd

Kadarius Toney

  • Kadarius Toney is the most explosive player after the catch for the Chiefs, and I believe he is key to their offense performance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • The Bengals will play man-to-man coverage and bring pressure; the deep play will be there for the Chiefs’ pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quez Watkins

  • Quez Watkins is my favorite option under $4,000, and I believe he will have the opportunity to have a big play touchdown in the game

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce

  • Travis Kelce will get plenty of work in this game, and you shouldn’t be concerned about what he can do
  • The Bengals have a great scheme, but the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is too great

George Kittle

  • George Kittle scares me off because of his price and because he might be needed a lot more in pass protection and blocking in the run game
  • Kittle has a defensive scheme he can play well against, but like the wide receivers, I am not sure that Purdy can get the job done

Dallas Goedert

  • The 49ers have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFL, but they will have plenty to deal with against this Eagles’ run game and wide receiver room
  • Dallas Goedert is way too cheap on DraftKings, and is a strong play on the slate

Hayden Hurst

  • Like the quarterback position this weekend, I don’t think Hayden Hurst can keep pace with the top portion of the tight end room

Defense/Special Teams

49ers

  • The 49ers are viable, and I will be loading up those builds with the Chiefs-Bengals game

Eagles

  • The safest defense on the slate is the Eagles’; they are at home and going up against a rookie quarterback
  • I would correlate them with Hurts’ stacks because you want them to play with the lead and get after Purdy

Chiefs

  • Their defensive line is very motivated, and I am not buying into how well the Bengals’ offensive line played against the Bills
  • Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker, and I will be banking on him in this matchup

Bengals

  • Lou Anarumo has slowed this team down and confused them in coverages
  • They are the cheapest defense on the slate against a limited Patrick Mahomes

 

Favorite Stacks

  • QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Quez Watkins
    • Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey
  • QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Travis Kelce
    • Runback: WR Ja’Marr Chase
  • QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd
    • Runback: WR Kadarius Toney

Favorite Play

Quez Watkins

Favorite Fade

Deebo Samuel

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Patrick Mahomes QB KC vs CIN $7,600 $8,500 24.5
Jalen Hurts QB PHI vs SF $7,200 $9,200 24.25
Joe Burrow QB CIN @ KC $6,800 $8,300 23.5
Christian McCaffrey RB SF @ PHI $8,000 $9,000 22.25
Joe Mixon RB CIN @ KC $6,500 $8,100 23.5
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs CIN $5,400 $6,500 24.5
Eli Mitchell RB SF @ PHI $4,900 $5,600 22.25
Samaje Perine RB CIN @ KC $4,500 $5,300 23.5
JaMarr Chase WR CIN @ KC $7,600 $8,600 23.5
A.J. Brown WR PHI vs SF $7,000 $8,000 24.25
DeVonta Smith WR PHI vs SF $6,800 $7,700 24.25
Deebo Samuel WR SF @ PHI $5,700 $7,000 22.25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ KC $5,400 $6,700 23.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC vs CIN $4,700 $6,100 24.5
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF @ PHI $4,400 $6,000 22.25
Tyler Boyd WR CIN @ KC $3,800 $5,300 23.5
Kadarius Toney WR KC vs CIN $3,700 $5,600 24.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC vs CIN $3,600 $5,100 24.5
Quez Watkins WR PHI vs SF $3,100 $4,800 24.25
Travis Kelce TE KC vs CIN $7,800 $8,500 24.5
George Kittle TE SF @ PHI $5,200 $6,800 22.25
Dallas Goedert TE PHI vs SF $4,100 $6,400 24.25
49ers DST SF @ PHI $3,000 $4,100 24.25
Eagles DST PHI vs SF $2,800 $4,600 22.25
Chiefs DST KC vs CIN $2,500 $4,200 23.5
Bengals DST CIN @ KC $2,300 $4,000 24.5

WATCH: Finding a DFS Big Play Option From 49ers

Analysis

From Jerry Rice to Brandon Aiyuk, Shanahan Samples 49ers 1995 Play Call

When Marc Trestman watched the 49ers play against Dallas in the NFL Divisional Round, he noticed San Francisco run a play he called back in 1995 for Jerry Rice against the Cowboys. This time, it was Brandon Aiyuk on the receiving end from Brock Purdy as he broke open on a slant with a linebacker in coverage. Trestman goes in-depth to break down why both plays worked.

DFS

DFS: Which 49ers Will Have Big Days in Conference Championship

With so many weapons on the 49ers side, it can be hard to pick which one will go off for DFS purposes. Jordan Vanek is leaning Brandon Aiyuk against James Bradberry, while Greg Jennings says George Kittle could excel vs. the Eagles linebackers.

DFS

Optimal DFS Plays For 2023 Two-Day Divisional Round Main Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

This weekend’s main slate lasts two days, so late swapping will benefit those who utilize players from Sunday’s games. I have a Divisional Coverage primer that you should look at because this piece will reference a lot of data from that piece. There are many ways to get unique on this week’s main slate and leverage spots at certain price ranges. I will be looking to flip the script with some of my builds based on the popularity of the expensive quarterbacks.

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found HERE.

Double Stacks

Stack: QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert

The week of rest couldn’t have been more important to any playoff team with Hurts’ shoulder injury. A fully healthy Jalen Hurts can put up big numbers against the Giants, and there’s a blueprint to put up big numbers on them. Dallas Goedert has to watch the film of T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews and be ready to win in man-coverage situations.

A.J. Brown is the No. 1 receiver in the NFL against man coverage. However, Martindale has his former Titans teammate in Adoree’ Jackson, and I think they will have a good game plan for this matchup. DeVonta Smith is also a top wide receiver against man coverage, and I think being looked at as a second option in this game will allow him to work freely. I don’t believe I want to run it back in this game because of how good this Eagles’ defense is and how the Giants can utilize multiple wide receivers.

Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones

Runback: TE Travis Kelce

The Jaguars-Chiefs game features the highest point total on the entire slate, and Trevor Lawrence isn’t projected to be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate. When Lawrence gets man coverage, who he targets has been relatively consistent week-to-week, and it’s Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Since Week 10, Lawrence saw a high man coverage rate against the Chiefs, Lions, Titans, and Cowboys. During that span of weeks, Kirk had a 33.3% target share, with Jones at 29.6%, and with the game flow, I believe it’s the spot for the Jaguars to find success. The Chiefs are one of three teams to give up 20 or more touchdowns to wide receivers this year, and these two wide receivers combine for a 55.8% target share.

 

Travis Kelce has had 90 yards receiving in six straight playoff matchups and has scored in five of the last six games. All of these team’s games planned to slow down Kelce and couldn’t find any success, and I don’t expect that to change here. The Chiefs have a wide receiver rotation that I don’t plan on trying to guess in tournaments because I think the number of players they utilize will limit the upside of breaking the slate with the value at wide receiver this week. Kadarius Toney is the one Chiefs wide receiver I would bet on, and if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated, I have no interest in this running back room.

Single Stacks

I’m not single stacking this week.

Mini-Stacks

WR Tee Higgins, WR Gabriel Davis

Greg Jennings believes we could see Tre’Davious White shadow with Ja’Marr Chase, and with three starting offensive linemen, I think Joe Burrow throws Tee Higgins’ way in contested coverage. Higgins has been the best player against Cover 3 coverage, and with the Bills’ struggles against the run, I think we see plenty of that coverage for Higgins to exploit.

Gabriel Davis will get Eli Apple in this matchup, and Stefon Diggs will deal with bracketed coverages. Davis has to win in his matchup against the Bills for this offense to find success and score points. Last weekend, Demarcus Robinson was able to win deep on Apple, and Davis will have plenty of film on the matchup to be able to replicate that double move.

RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR CeeDee Lamb

Christian McCaffrey is a chess piece that Dan Quinn has not seen Kyle Shanahan have on his board before, and he will need to get going if they want to slow down the pass rush. Mike Martz believes that the Cowboys are weak in their interior defensive line and that McCaffrey can exploit that area of the field.

Brandon Aiyuk is a lethal route runner and the 49ers’ pass catcher that can get the job done down the field against the Cowboys’ secondary. Aiyuk is the down-the-field threat with Brock Purdy, and I believe he will continue that trend in this matchup.

The Cowboys should be looking at the Davante Adams film against the 49ers and getting every bit of the route combinations he ran for CeeDee Lamb to get free against the 49ers. The 49ers’ weakest point is the slot, and Lamb will frequently align in that area. The 49ers’ primary coverages also bode well for Lamb because he has a high target rate against them, with Dak Prescott as the starter.

 

Divisional Round DFS Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Jalen Hurts QB PHI vs NYG $7,600 $9,000 27.5
Trevor Lawrence QB JAC @ KC $6,000 $7,600 22.5
Christian McCaffrey RB SF vs DAL $8,000 $9,200 25
Saquon Barkley RB NYG @ PHI $7,900 $8,500 20.5
Joe Mixon RB CIN @ BUF $6,500 $7,700 21.75
Travis Etienne RB JAC @ KC $6,400 $6,800 22.5
Tony Pollard RB DAL @ SF $6,100 $7,100 21
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs JAC $6,000 $7,000 30.5
Miles Sanders RB PHI vs NYG $5,700 $7,200 27.5
James Cook RB BUF vs CIN $4,800 $5,800 26.75
Eli Mitchell RB SF vs DAL $4,700 $5,400 25
A.J. Brown WR PHI vs NYG $7,600 $8,300 27.5
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL @ SF $7,300 $7,800 21
DeVonta Smith WR PHI vs NYG $7,200 $7,400 27.5
Christian Kirk WR JAC @ KC $6,000 $7,600 22.5
Deebo Samuel WR SF vs DAL $5,900 $7,100 25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ BUF $5,800 $7,000 21.75
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF vs DAL $5,000 $6,500 25
Gabriel Davis WR BUF vs CIN $4,800 $6,600 26.75
Zay Jones WR JAC @ KC $4,700 $6,500 22.5
Kadarius Toney WR KC vs JAC $4,100 $5,800 30.5
Michael Gallup WR DAL @ SF $3,800 $5,700 21
Isaiah McKenzie WR BUF vs CIN $3,300 $5,100 26.75
T.Y. Hilton WR DAL @ SF $3,200 $5,000 21
Travis Kelce TE KC vs JAC $7,700 $8,000 30.5
George Kittle TE SF vs DAL $5,700 $7,100 25
Dallas Goedert TE PHI vs NYG $4,500 $6,300 27.5
Dalton Schultz TE DAL @ SF $4,200 $6,400 21
Hayden Hurst TE CIN @ BUF $3,200 $5,000 21.75
49ers DST SF vs DAL $3,300 $4,500 21
Eagles DST PHI vs NYG $3,200 $4,800 20.5
Chiefs DST KC vs JAC $3,100 $4,200 22.5
Cowboys DST DAL @ SF $3,000 $3,900 25
Bills DST BUF vs CIN $2,900 $4,100 21.75
Giants DST NYG @ PHI $2,500 $3,000 27.5
Bengals DST CIN @ BUF $2,400 $3,400 26.75

WATCH: Best Divisional Round Sleepers, Values

Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup

Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline eight Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider. >> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to […]

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Betting

10 Player Props for 2023 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Ten of the best value player props available to bettors in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Reynolds’ Top Props

Trevor Lawrence OVER 249.5 Yards Passing (-115 DraftKings)

  • Lawrence has beat this in nine of 18 games, so this is kind of his baseline performance. He also beat this earlier in the year against Kansas City… This is like a 65% outcome for me.

Lawrence UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (+115 DraftKings)

  • Lawrence has thrown a pick in only seven games this year, and did not throw one against Kansas City.

George Kittle UNDER 51.5 Yards Receiving (-114 FanDuel)

  • He’s under this number in five of Brock Purdy’s seven games. Dallas is giving up the fifth-fewest yards receiving to tight ends… I could see him being used more directly as a blocker in this matchup.

Larky’s Top Props

Christian Kirk OVER 63.5 (DraftKings -115)

  • I think we’d all take this into the high 60s. Kirk is over this number in 10 of 18 games this year. When the Jaguars and Chiefs played earlier this year, he caught nine targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. On the season, the Chiefs allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the slot.

Travis Etienne OVER 17.5 Yards Receiving (-125 DraftKings)

  • Travis Etienne has been over this in nine of 18 games this year… In 17 games this year, 20 running backs were over 17.5 yards receiving against Kansas City. Overall, Kansas City allowed the fourth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.

Lawrence OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 FanDuel)

  • We love this matchup. Every quarterback who faced Kansas City this season threw at least two touchdowns except Malik Willis, Bryce Perkins, Geno Smith (without Tyler Lockett), Russell Wilson in Week 17 (with two rushing touchdowns), and Jarrett Stidham.

DeVonta Smith OVER 63.5 Yards Receiving (-115 DraftKings)

  • In 10 of his 16 games since Week 1, he’s been over this number… He had eight targets in both games against the Giants, with 64 and 67 yards… Everything is pointing at both A.J. Brown and Smith to have great days.

 

Wolby’s Top Props

Brandon Aiyuk OVER 53.5 Yards (-115 DraftKings)

  • He’s averaging 12 more yards than this with Brock Purdy as his passer, and he’s 5-1 over this number… Wide receivers against Dallas with Aiyuk’s minimums, those receivers went 12-3 over this number.

Jerick McKinnon OVER 34.5 Yards Receiving (-120 DraftKings)

  • He’s been averaging 44 yards per game since the team’s bye week (removing Week 18)… The Jaguars allowed the second-most receptions and yards receiving to opposing running backs. Running backs are averaging five targets and four receptions per game against the Jaguars.

Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion OVER 38.5 Yards (-115 DraftKings)

  • He has the most completions of this long in the NFL… What I love most about this: 9-2 in the playoffs, with the two games he didn’t have a pass this long being his first career playoff game and the Super Bowl where his team only put up nine points… The Jaguars have the third-worst pass DVOA in the NFL.
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