Tank Williams says the Kansas City Chiefs‘ front office knocked it out of the park in 2022. From finding suitable replacements for Tyreek Hill and supplementing their defense in free agency to drafting eight rookies that all made an impact, it was clear that 2022 was not a rebuilding season; it was title time.
Important Stats to Know from Super Bowl LVII
Second-Half Surge Sends Chiefs to Second Super Bowl Title in Four Years
Three Chiefs, Eagles’ Players to Target in Super Bowl LVII DFS Lineups
Super Bowl LVII DFS Showdown Slate Strategy, Picks
Super Bowl LVII Odds: How to Bet on the Big Game
Super Bowl LVII Underdog High/Low Picks: Bet Big on Kadarius Toney’s Explosive Potential
Super Bowl LVII Betting: Best ATS, Value and Prop Bets
The NFL season has all come down to Sunday’s Super Bowl. Two top-seeded teams will square off as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs clash. We’ve finished this season strong from a betting perspective. Let’s get a few more wins before we close up shop for the season.
Best ATS Bet
First-Quarter Total: Over 9.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
The last 15 Super Bowls started with an average of 8.6 points in the first quarter of play, but not the last few years. Each of the last three Super Bowls posted exact totals of 10 points. This year, expecting some early scores feels like a smarter wager than ever.
One of my favorite bets in the NFC Championship game was either Philadelphia or San Francisco failing to gain a first down on their first drive. That didn’t end well. Brock Purdy eventually went down to injury on the sixth play of the 49ers’ first possession, but they still got their first down.
The Eagles marched right down the field and opened up the game with a 7-0 lead. In most cases, the first quarter, typically, affords at least three total drives. The team that receives the ball first will usually get two stabs at scoring. That leaves three chances for the Chiefs and Eagles, two teams that averaged a combined 11.2 points per game in the first 15 minutes all season, to put up at least 10 points. I like our chances.
I considered taking the under because of the pressure on both quarterbacks to start the game. After all, the flash bulbs and energy of a Super Bowl kickoff are enough to make a normal man’s stomach churn. On the other hand, the Eagles and Chiefs have the two most consistent offenses in the NFL. They’re the top two teams in points per game, points per first half, points per play and first downs per game.
This is Patrick Mahomes’ third Super Bowl appearance, and I doubt he’ll feel the same pressure as other players. And while Jalen Hurts will probably feel more tension than his opponent, the Eagles’ incredible offensive line and creative play-calling have resulted in 10 touchdowns and two field goals on their opening drives this season. That’s a 63% scoring rate on opening possessions. The Chiefs scored five touchdowns and five field goals on their opening possessions, a rate of 53%.
Bet on the first quarter going over the total and bet it with confidence.
Best Value Bet
Halftime/Full Time: Eagles/Chiefs (+650 everywhere)
This is one of my favorite Super Bowl bets for the value it offers.
The Eagles’ ability to dominate in the first two quarters has been nothing short of amazing. They average a league-high 18.2 points per game in the first 30 minutes, and they only allow 9.6 points per half, which is good for fifth place overall. It’s one of the biggest reasons why Philadelphia has found so much success this season.
They start off hot with explosive plays to big-name skill players such as A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, and then they apply pressure on opposing offenses with the league’s best defensive line. They lead the league in sacks with a staggering 4.1 per game, and most of those sacks happen in the first half. Philadelphia is a juggernaut first-half team, and I expect them to hold a lead at the end of the first two quarters.
On the full game-winner, you’re betting on the magic of Mahomes. In just five seasons, the NFL’s best quarterback has been a part of 13 fourth-quarter comebacks and 14 game-winning drives in the regular season. Even more importantly, he has two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives in the postseason.
He’s done it as recently as two weeks ago against the Cincinnati Bengals, running for a first down that resulted in a personal foul penalty and thus putting his Chiefs in field goal position to win the game. He did it last year in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills, and he did it the last time he won a Super Bowl back in 2020 against the San Francisco 49ers.
The betting line (1.5) tells us this should be a close game. The Eagles have never played an offense as good as the Chiefs this year — not even close, in fact — and in a one-score game, my money will always be on Mahomes to get the job done.
Best Prop Bet
Isiah Pacheco: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-120 at Bet MGM/DraftKings)
Last week, rookie running back Isiah Pacheco earned the most touches, targets, catches and reception yards in his career. He was a key part of the Chiefs’ victory against the Bengals, and I think he might be needed even more in Super Bowl LVII.
The Chiefs are already without Mecole Hardman (IR), and receivers Kadarius Toney and JuJu Smith-Schuster are not 100 percent. Mahomes will likely rely on Travis Kelce early and often, and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they wanted to bet more of his props; I just love the value we’re getting on such a low line for Pacheco.
The young back has an Ahmad Bradshaw-like style of playing. He has burst, runs smartly with determination and he’s a powerful athlete who doesn’t go down easy. Kansas City was utilizing Jerick McKinnon more and more as the season went on, but lately, his production has dropped. McKinnon was targeted zero times against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round and targeted only four times (two catches) for 17 yards against the Bengals. His exposure has been limited, and we expect that to continue.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs’ upstart running back who went down to a high ankle sprain in Week 11, will suit up in Super Bowl LVII, but don’t let that deter you. Pacheco was targeted six times in the AFC Championship game. He turned those six targets into five receptions for 59 yards, a solid 11.8 yards per catch, and he was an integral part of a few key first downs.
His ability to make defenders miss in the short passing game is a perfect tool for the Chiefs’ offense against an Eagles’ defense that’s among the most aggressive in the NFL. Trust that Pacheco will get his opportunities and that he easily eclipses 15 receiving yards.
WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview
Super Bowl LVII Betting and DFS Preview Show
The 33rd Team’s betting and DFS experts break down everything you need to know to place bets and play DFS for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The guys break down how to be the spread (Eagles -1.5) and the total (51.5), the players with the best DFS matchups and some player props you should add to your ticket. Finally, they close out with their predictions for the final score and MVP.
Wednesday Watchman: Betting, DFS Stats to Know for Super Bowl LVII
The time has come. The two best teams in football meet to decide on a champion.
Will Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni finally get his playoff 2-point conversion? Will there be a “Philly Special?” Will Kansas City Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney play, and if so, in which quarter will he be injured? Heads or tails? Will a lineman score a touchdown? I can’t tell you the answers to any of those. But what I can do is tell you Super Bowl LVII will be decided in the trenches.
The Chiefs’ offense allows the second-best sack rate at only 3.8%, while the Eagles’ defense ranked first in sack rate at 11.2%. It could be the “unstoppable force meets an immovable object.” Or this could be an inflated number for Philadelphia’s defense given its generally lower quality of opponent. In 26.3% of their matchups, the Eagles faced opponent offenses ranked in the top 10 for sack rate allowed.
Conversely, the Eagles’ offense is ranked 21st in sack rate allowed at 7.3%, while the Chiefs’ defense generates the fifth-best sack rate of 8.2%. In 42.1% of their matchups, the Chiefs’ defense faced a top-10 offense in sacks-allowed (great success even with a tougher defensive line schedule than the Eagles).
As good as the Eagles’ lines have been, the Chiefs are underrated in the trenches.
The trenches are the emphasis because both quarterbacks appear to be partially hampered by injury. Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, which will still be sore even with the two weeks of rest.
With a possible shoulder injury, Jalen Hurts has not cracked 160 yards passing in these playoffs. But he hasn’t really needed to do so in two blowout wins over the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.
It would be interesting if we have a game where Mahomes can’t run and Hurts can’t pass, but I think they will be healed up enough to be the alpha competitors they are. Both coaches are creative and will pull out all the stops.
Do we bet against Howie Roseman’s Philadelphia “team of destiny,” or do we bet against the future GOAT Mahomes? Tough decisions.
The current line is Eagles -1.5 with a total of 50.5. My money will be on the Chiefs and the under.
With only a showdown slate available, you want to be unique in GPP tournaments. Captain an unlikely hero; that alone will differentiate you from the field. Most people will be using one of Mahomes, Hurts, A.J. Brown, or Travis Kelce. Fine options for the roster spot with a multiplier include DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco.
Sanders faces a Kansas City defense ranked 22nd in yards per rush and is the lead back on a run-heavy offense. That is why he is my top “best of the rest” candidate if the aforementioned foursome fails to flourish.
If you envision an Eagles victory, you could also throw some money on Sanders as MVP. One thing I will do on occasion is take the obvious player from the team I think will win, then throw a dart on a lower-probability player from the other team.
So this year, I might take Mahomes as MVP at +130 for one unit and put an equal amount of money on Sanders at +3000. Shop around for the best odds. If Mahomes wins the award (a likely scenario), then I am up 0.3 units. If Sanders wins, then I am up 29 units. If neither of them wins, then I am down 2 units, which is not devastating. Other, more precise bets can cover the loss.
Caveat: the last time a running back was Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998. There’s no time like the present.
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)