Betting

Underdog Fantasy Picks for Super Bowl LVII

I found three Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks that you should take ahead of next Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. For each pick, I’ll lay out the statistical and/or logical case behind it, so you can better understand my process.

 

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Jalen Hurts Higher than 21.5 Completions

  • Jalen Hurts was higher than this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup.
  • Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year.
    • That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9.
  • In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was higher against Kansas City.
  • The only QBs lower than this number were:

Jerick McKinnon Lower than 22.5 Rushing Yards

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.

Patrick Mahomes Lower than 18.5 Rushing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl.
    • Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
  • Mahomes was lower than this number in nine of 19 games this year.
  • Mahomes averaged 21 rushing yards per game during the regular season when fully healthy.
  • This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue.
  • In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

Watch: Early Super Bowl Betting Preview

Conference Championship Underdog High, Low Picks

Conference Championship Underdog High, Low Picks
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline five Conference Championship Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider. > If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to […]

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Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup

Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles’ WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline eight Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider. >> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to […]

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Betting

Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks from Larky & Wolby

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 18 (!!) Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

The Freebie: Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 0.5 Total Yards

  • Underdog lets you use this special line once, and you’re able to spend up to $25 when pairing it with other lines.

Joe Mixon LOWER than 84.5 Total Yards – Josh Larky

  • Mixon has been LOWER in seven of 12 games.
  • He has 16 touches in each game since returning from the concussion.
    • He was averaging 21 touches per game prior to his Week 11 concussion.
  • Mixon should be inefficient on the ground, as the Patriots are ninth in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
  • The Patriots allow just 3.9 yards per carry, and that’s not being offset in the receiving game, as they are right in the middle there – 14th most receiving yards per game to RBs. Both stats can be found using our flagship tool, The Edge.
  • Mixon is out-targeting Perine just eight to six since returning from the concussion.

Devin Singletary HIGHER than 8.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • The Bears run Cover 2 at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Josh Allen throws the ball to the RB position on 29% of his dropbacks when facing Cover 2 .
    • Allen is top-5 in yards per attempt when targeting his RBs against Cover 2.
  • James Cook has not taken over this backfield as a rusher or receiver.
    • Aside from the Week 13 game at New England, Singletary has out-snapped and out-touched Cook.
    • Despite this, Cook’s receiving yards line is higher. Those yards will go to Singletary.
  • Singletary is averaging 18.4 receiving yards per game (11 as the median), and has gone HIGHER in eight of 14 games.

Darius Slayton HIGHER than 51.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Slayton has been HIGHER in six of his past eight games.
  • He has a target share of at least 20% in seven of his past ten games.
  • The Vikings allow the second-most (200) receiving yards per game to wideouts, via The Edge.
  • Overall, passers average 7.9 yards per attempt against Minnesota, second-highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • Minnesota has allowed 24 WR games HIGHER than this number (1.7 per game), via The Edge.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Isaiah Hodgins HIGHER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Hodgins has at least four receptions and 37 receiving yards in three straight games.
  • He’s run at least 32 routes in three straight games.
  • Minnesota has allowed 33 WR games HIGHER than this (2.4 per game), via The Edge.

Sam Darnold HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Ben Wolby

  • Over their seven game 6-1 streak, the Lions lead the NFL in interceptions with eight, slightly more than one per game.
  • Darnold hasn’t yet thrown an interception this season (through three games) despite throwing 52 in his 52 career games as a starter.
    • This makes for a great regression play.
  • Teams are passing against the Lions at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.

Nelson Agholor LOWER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • He’s been LOWER in eight of his past nine games.
  • The Bengals allow the 20th most receiving yards per game to wideouts, per The Edge.
  • Cincinnati is the 11th-highest pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders.

Dalvin Cook HIGHER than 76.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Cook has at least 76 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this year.
  • The Giants allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs, second-most in the NFL via The Edge.
  • The Giants have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in 11 of 14 games this year.

Tyler Boyd HIGHER than 33.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Tyler Boyd has 33 or more yards in ten of his 13 full games.
  • Boyd has better stats with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase on the field (see below table for per-game numbers).
Split Receptions Yards Per Game
Yards After Catch Per Reception
With Chase 3.8 55 5
Without Chase 3 35 2.4

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Derrick Henry HIGHER than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns – Josh Larky

  • RBs have scored rushing TDs against the Texans in ten of 14 games.
  • Henry has scored a rushing TD in nine of 14 games this year.

Alvin Kamara HIGHER than 65.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Kamara has 75% of the team’s RB carries over the past four games.
  • The Browns allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this year, second-most in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • The Browns are 30th in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
  • The Browns have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in nine of the past 11 games.
  • Kamara had 21 carries last week, and this game should have the worst weather of the weekend, forcing both teams to rely on the run games.
    • Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry won’t play in this game, either.

Desmond Ridder HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Josh Larky

  • The Ravens have 14 interceptions through 14 games this season, with interceptions in eight of those 14 games.
  • Ridder had two interceptable passes in his first start last week, according to PlayerProfiler.

Jauan Jennings LOWER than 3.0 Receptions – Ben Wolby

  • Jennings hasn’t amassed higher than three receptions in a single game with Brock Purdy as a passer.
  • Jennings is fifth in target share with Purdy as a starter.
    • He runs the fewest routes of all his teammates.
  • Even with Deebo out last week, Jennings still had only three receptions, and only saw a 30% increase in his routes run.
    • While he’ll be on the field more, he isn’t a primary focal point in this offense.
  • Teams pass the ball at the fifth-lowest rate against Washington, and since Purdy took over in Week 13, the 49ers pass at the fifth-lowest rate.

J.K. Dobbins HIGHER than 56.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Dobbins has at least 13 carries and 120 rushing yards in both games since returning from IR.
  • The Falcons are the 26th-ranked rush defense, via DVOA.
  • The Ravens are projected to win this game by a TD, so game script should favor the run game.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 79.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • Star defensive end Chase Young returns for Washington this week.
  • The Commanders have the fourth-best run defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • McCaffrey has been LOWER than this number in nine of 14 games this year.

Gardner Minshew HIGHER than 13.0 Rushing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Minshew is HIGHER than this number in 14 of 21 career games.
  • Every QB that had at least two non-kneeldown rushes against Dallas has topped 13 rushing yards.
    • Minshew averages 4.4 rushing attempts per game as a starter.

Mark Andrews HIGHER than 45.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Andrews has at least six targets in five straight games.
  • The Falcons allow the fourth highest yards per attempt (7.7) to passers, via The Edge.
  • This is a regression play, as Andrews’ usage has been strong throughout this season.

Curtis Samuel HIGHER than 28.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky

  • Samuel has at least 28 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this year.
  • Samuel has an 81% slot rate this year, via The Edge.
    • The 49ers allow the sixth most fantasy points to the slot this year, per The Edge.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

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