Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 18 (!!) Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.
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The Freebie: Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 0.5 Total Yards
- Underdog lets you use this special line once, and you’re able to spend up to $25 when pairing it with other lines.
Joe Mixon LOWER than 84.5 Total Yards – Josh Larky
- Mixon has been LOWER in seven of 12 games.
- He has 16 touches in each game since returning from the concussion.
- He was averaging 21 touches per game prior to his Week 11 concussion.
- Mixon should be inefficient on the ground, as the Patriots are ninth in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
- The Patriots allow just 3.9 yards per carry, and that’s not being offset in the receiving game, as they are right in the middle there – 14th most receiving yards per game to RBs. Both stats can be found using our flagship tool, The Edge.
- Mixon is out-targeting Perine just eight to six since returning from the concussion.
Devin Singletary HIGHER than 8.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby
- The Bears run Cover 2 at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Josh Allen throws the ball to the RB position on 29% of his dropbacks when facing Cover 2 .
- Allen is top-5 in yards per attempt when targeting his RBs against Cover 2.
- James Cook has not taken over this backfield as a rusher or receiver.
- Aside from the Week 13 game at New England, Singletary has out-snapped and out-touched Cook.
- Despite this, Cook’s receiving yards line is higher. Those yards will go to Singletary.
- Singletary is averaging 18.4 receiving yards per game (11 as the median), and has gone HIGHER in eight of 14 games.
Darius Slayton HIGHER than 51.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky
- Slayton has been HIGHER in six of his past eight games.
- He has a target share of at least 20% in seven of his past ten games.
- The Vikings allow the second-most (200) receiving yards per game to wideouts, via The Edge.
- Overall, passers average 7.9 yards per attempt against Minnesota, second-highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
- Minnesota has allowed 24 WR games HIGHER than this number (1.7 per game), via The Edge.
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Isaiah Hodgins HIGHER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky
- Hodgins has at least four receptions and 37 receiving yards in three straight games.
- He’s run at least 32 routes in three straight games.
- Minnesota has allowed 33 WR games HIGHER than this (2.4 per game), via The Edge.
Sam Darnold HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Ben Wolby
- Over their seven game 6-1 streak, the Lions lead the NFL in interceptions with eight, slightly more than one per game.
- Darnold hasn’t yet thrown an interception this season (through three games) despite throwing 52 in his 52 career games as a starter.
- This makes for a great regression play.
- Teams are passing against the Lions at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.
Nelson Agholor LOWER than 34.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky
- He’s been LOWER in eight of his past nine games.
- The Bengals allow the 20th most receiving yards per game to wideouts, per The Edge.
- Cincinnati is the 11th-highest pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
Dalvin Cook HIGHER than 76.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky
- Cook has at least 76 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this year.
- The Giants allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs, second-most in the NFL via The Edge.
- The Giants have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in 11 of 14 games this year.
Tyler Boyd HIGHER than 33.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby
- Tyler Boyd has 33 or more yards in ten of his 13 full games.
- Boyd has better stats with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase on the field (see below table for per-game numbers).
| Split |
Receptions |
Yards Per Game |
Yards After Catch Per Reception
|
| With Chase |
3.8 |
55 |
5 |
| Without Chase |
3 |
35 |
2.4 |
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Derrick Henry HIGHER than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns – Josh Larky
- RBs have scored rushing TDs against the Texans in ten of 14 games.
- Henry has scored a rushing TD in nine of 14 games this year.
Alvin Kamara HIGHER than 65.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky
- Kamara has 75% of the team’s RB carries over the past four games.
- The Browns allow 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this year, second-most in the NFL, via The Edge.
- The Browns are 30th in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
- The Browns have allowed a RB to go HIGHER than this number in nine of the past 11 games.
- Kamara had 21 carries last week, and this game should have the worst weather of the weekend, forcing both teams to rely on the run games.
- Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry won’t play in this game, either.
Desmond Ridder HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Josh Larky
- The Ravens have 14 interceptions through 14 games this season, with interceptions in eight of those 14 games.
- Ridder had two interceptable passes in his first start last week, according to PlayerProfiler.
Jauan Jennings LOWER than 3.0 Receptions – Ben Wolby
- Jennings hasn’t amassed higher than three receptions in a single game with Brock Purdy as a passer.
- Jennings is fifth in target share with Purdy as a starter.
- He runs the fewest routes of all his teammates.
- Even with Deebo out last week, Jennings still had only three receptions, and only saw a 30% increase in his routes run.
- While he’ll be on the field more, he isn’t a primary focal point in this offense.
- Teams pass the ball at the fifth-lowest rate against Washington, and since Purdy took over in Week 13, the 49ers pass at the fifth-lowest rate.
J.K. Dobbins HIGHER than 56.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky
- Dobbins has at least 13 carries and 120 rushing yards in both games since returning from IR.
- The Falcons are the 26th-ranked rush defense, via DVOA.
- The Ravens are projected to win this game by a TD, so game script should favor the run game.
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Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 79.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky
- Star defensive end Chase Young returns for Washington this week.
- The Commanders have the fourth-best run defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
- McCaffrey has been LOWER than this number in nine of 14 games this year.
Gardner Minshew HIGHER than 13.0 Rushing Yards – Ben Wolby
- Minshew is HIGHER than this number in 14 of 21 career games.
- Every QB that had at least two non-kneeldown rushes against Dallas has topped 13 rushing yards.
- Minshew averages 4.4 rushing attempts per game as a starter.
Mark Andrews HIGHER than 45.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky
- Andrews has at least six targets in five straight games.
- The Falcons allow the fourth highest yards per attempt (7.7) to passers, via The Edge.
- This is a regression play, as Andrews’ usage has been strong throughout this season.
Curtis Samuel HIGHER than 28.5 Receiving Yards – Josh Larky
- Samuel has at least 28 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this year.
- Samuel has an 81% slot rate this year, via The Edge.
- The 49ers allow the sixth most fantasy points to the slot this year, per The Edge.
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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Week 16 Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.
