Betting

11/19/22

5 min read

Josh Larky and Ben Wolby's Underdog Fantasy High/Low Picks

underdog fantasy high/low picks

Below, you'll find 12 Underdog Fantasy High/Low Picks that Ben Wolby and Josh Larky have put their soft-earned money on.

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Darnell Mooney HIGHER than 45.5 Receiving Yards (Ben Wolby)

  • Mooney has topped this number six times this season, and the Bears offense keeps getting more potent.
  • Falcons are the only team allowing more than 200 yards per game to opposing WRs.
  • Offensive injuries to Khalil Herbert (IR, Out), and Cole Kmet (Thigh, DNP Wednesday, Limited Thursday) should prevent Fields from spreading the ball.
  • Bears' new WR Chase Claypool isnā€™t a focal point; he ran only seven routes last week.
  • Claypool will either play and open up the field for Mooney or sit and let Mooney be a ball hog.
  • Mooney is eighth in team target percentage and ranks just below AJ Brown and Stefon Diggs.
  • The Falcons pressure QBs at the second lowest rate, so QBs scramble at the lowest rate vs ATL. Fields will get a chance to be a pocket passer this week.

Kirk Cousins HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions (Josh Larky)

  • Dallas has intercepted a pass in five of nine games.
  • Cousins has thrown an interception in five of nine games (eight total INTs).

Donovan Peoples-Jones HIGHER than 47.5 Receiving Yards (Josh Larky)

  • DPJ has been HIGHER than this number in each of his past six games, with at least 71 receiving yards in his past four.
  • Buffalo is a heavy favorite, and the Browns will need to air the ball out to keep this game competitive.
  • The Bills allow the ninth most fantasy points to WRs lined up wide this year, per The Edge.
    • DPJ has 247 snaps out wide, and 228 snaps in the slot this year, per The Edge.
Kyle Pitts LOWER than 38.5 receiving yards (Ben Wolby)
  • Pitts has topped this number in just 2 games this season, Week 3 at Seattle and Week 8 against Carolina.
  • Dalton Schultz and Irv Smith were the only TEs to top this number against the Bears.
  • Tight ends against the Bears have 320 receiving yards, the third fewest in the NFL.
  • Even though Kyle Pitts leads TEs in air yards per target, TEs against the Bears have the fourth highest unrealized air yards.

Darius Slayton HIGHER than 42.5 Receiving Yards (Josh Larky)

  • Slayton has at least 58 receiving yards in four of his past five games
  • The Lions allow the sixth most receiving yards to opposing WRs this season, per The Edge

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Michael Carter HIGHER than 13.5 Receiving yards (Ben Wolby)
  • Carter is averaging 22 receiving yards per game.
  • He's at 30 receiving yards per game since Week 7.
  • Running backs have the twelfth most receiving yards against New England and are averaging 9.1 yards per reception (second most in the NFL).
  • Zach Wilson targets the RB position on 19% of his passes, where the league average is around 18%.
  • Realistically, Carter needs two receptions to top this number; heā€™s averaging four targets are three receptions per game.

Russell Wilson HIGHER than 226.5 Passing Yards (Josh Larky)

  • Wilson has been HIGHER than this number in five of eight games this season.
  • Eight of nine QBs that played the Raiders had at least 229 passing yards.
Jalen Hurts LOWER than 43.5 Rushing Yards (Ben Wolby)
  • Hurts is under this in four straight games and hasnā€™t had more than nine rushing attempts or 30 rushing yards since Week 5.
  • The Colts have faced the ninth fewest QB attempts per game (3.6) and are allowing the fifth fewest yards per game to QBs (12.8).
  • As a whole, the Indianapolis Rush defense is fifth against the run in DVOA. Linebackers Zaire Franklin and Bobby Okereke both rank in the top-10 in tackles on designed rushing plays.
  • Hurts has established himself as a very solid passer. Even without Dallas Goedert, Hurts should be able to get the ball to his other weapons.

Greg Dulcich HIGHER than 37.5 Receiving Yards (Josh Larky)

  • Dulcich has been HIGHER than this number in three of four games.
  • 26 WRs/TEs have HIGHER than 37.5 receiving yards in a game against the Raiders this season, per The Edge.
  • Jerry Jeudy has been ruled OUT, so Dulich is the clear next man up after Courtland Sutton.

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Noah Gray HIGHER than 13.5 Receiving Yards (Ben Wolby)
  • Noah Gray has gotten more involved with the Chiefsā€™ offense over the last two weeks, totaling 45 and 20 yards, the most and third most heā€™s had all season.
  • The Chargers allow the eighth most yards per game to opposing TEs (55) despite allowing the eighth fewest completions to the position.
  • Travis Kelce will see most of the work, but Noah Grayā€™s recent involvement is encouraging.
  • Recent injuries to Mecole Hardman (IR) and Juju Smith-Schuster (Concussion) should have Gray seeing an uptick in targets.

Dalton Schultz HIGHER 43.5 Receiving Yards (Josh Larky)

  • Schultz has at least five catches and 49 yards in each of the past three games.
  • Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet, and Dawson Knox all surpassed this number, and Schultz has a much larger role in his offense than all of them.

TJ Hockenson HIGHER than 43.5 Receiving Yards (Josh Larky)

  • Hockenson has at least nine targets and 45 receiving yards in both games with MIN this season.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these 12 Underdog Fantasy High/Low Picks. As always, deposit money responsibly.

Watch More: Josh Larky's Fantasy World



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