Betting
2/7/25
7 min read
Super Bowl LIX Betting: Smash Prop Bets For This Year's Game
One of the very best parts of the Super Bowl is the endless amounts of bets. By now, you know just how crazy some of them can get. Length of the National Anthem. Color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning head coach. The first song of the halftime show. You get it.
It can almost be overwhelming, but we’ve found the best and most fun prop bets that you need to make this year ahead of Chiefs-Eagles on Sunday Night. So, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, here are our five favorite prop bets that you need to make before the big game.
Smash Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIX
Any Player To Record An Octopus (TD + 2PT Conversion On Same Drive)
Yes: +1040
One of the most unique bets that has become popular in recent years is the Octopus bet. It’s as simple as this. A single player needs to score a touchdown and then the 2-point conversion on the same drive for the bet to win. This actually happened during the 2023 Super Bowl matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs when Jalen Hurts rushed for a touchdown and then got into the end zone again with his legs.
Saquon Barkley accomplished it earlier this season against the Saints, so if there is a team that could do it in the Super Bowl, it is the Eagles. It is worth noting that an octopus only happened nine times during the 2024 regular season, but we know that Super Bowl teams are usually more aggressive when it comes to attempting 2-point conversions, given the stakes.
The Eagles love to use Hurts' legs near the goal line, so he is the most likely player to complete the Octopus. But don’t rule out someone like Travis Kelce, who is the preferred target of Patrick Mahomes in the red zone.
The overall odds on this bet are lower than you would like to see for such an uncommon feat. However, there might not be a more “fun” bet to make ahead of Super Bowl LIX, as you’ll be rooting for each team to attempt a 2-point conversion after every touchdown.
Both Teams Successful 4th-Down Conversion?
Yes: -124
This one feels too easy, right? The Chiefs (70%) and Eagles (73.3%) are two of the best teams in the NFL in converting fourth downs, and we should expect them to be aggressive in the Super Bowl.
The Eagles are unstoppable when running the “Tush Push,” and we should expect them to run it multiple times throughout the game. They are a near-lock to convert a fourth-down conversion, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them convert multiple times before the game is over.
The Chiefs are a bit trickier, as they aren’t nearly as aggressive as the Eagles on fourth down. But Mahomes and the Chiefs have been awesome in terms of money downs throughout the playoffs, and we should fully expect Andy Reid to ramp up the aggressiveness in this contest.
Possessions could be limited due to both teams wanting to control the clock, which could make both sides even more aggressive when it comes to attempting fourth-down conversions.
DeVonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards
Over: +225
DeVonta Smith has been held in check for most of the postseason, totaling just 121 yards in three games. He has caught every single one of his targets (12) but just hasn’t been a big factor in the offense. That’s partly because the Eagles have run the ball so well and have held big leads in all three of their playoff wins.
But in the Super Bowl, they might have to open up the offense more to beat the Chiefs. They can’t expect Saquon Barkley alone to win them the game, which means we could see more deep shots to Smith from Hurts. In the previous Super Bowl matchup, Smith caught seven passes for 100 yards and was the leading receiver for the Eagles. While he might not be able to replicate that number again, it’s not hard to see him going over 70 yards, especially if the Eagles get behind early.
Smith is a fantastic player and should have a favorable matchup on the outside against Kansas City’s secondary. A.J. Brown is likely to demand the attention of the safeties, which could lead to a big game for Smith. Getting Smith at +225 to go more than (just) 70 yards is a worthwhile risk in a game that could have a lot of scoring.
Number Of Quarterbacks To Have A Passing Attempt
Over 2.5: +152
The Super Bowl will always bring out the most creative and risky plays of the year. And with two creative play callers (Andy Reid and Kellen Moore), we should expect anything less this season. These teams have two full weeks to prepare for the game, which means extra time to put in a handful of trick plays.
We saw Jauan Jennings throw a touchdown last year, and whenever the Patriots were in the Super Bowl, you could bank on one of Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola to throw a pass. In fact, one of the most famous plays in Super Bowl history was Trey Burton throwing a pass to Nick Foles against the Patriots.
The Chiefs and Eagles haven’t been quite as creative when it comes to multiple players throwing passes, and that’s because they don’t really need to with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. But Kellen Moore does have an extensive history of calling wide receiver passes in big games, so don’t rule it out.
Could we see a Kelce passing attempt near the goal line? Or what about a Barkley passing attempt? Anything is possible with these two coaching staffs. Bettors get plus odds here, and it’s always fun to root for the possibility of a wide receiver pass in the Super Bowl.
Number Of Players To Record A Rushing Attempt For Chiefs
Under 4.5: -122
If you are looking for a “safe” prop bet, consider taking the Chiefs to have under 4.5 players record a rushing attempt. We know Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Kareem Hunt will all carry the ball at least once. After that, it gets tricky.
In the playoff game against the Bills, the three players listed above and Xavier Worthy all received at least one carry. Worthy had 20 rushing attempts during the regular season and three more in the playoffs. It seems pretty likely that he’ll get one or two in this game, but that’s not a lock. Even if he does, that is still only four players.
Will someone else for the Chiefs get a carry? That would mean Carson Steele or Samaje Perine would need to earn a rush, but both seem unlikely with a healthy Hunt and Pacheco. The Chiefs have hardly used Pacheco in the postseason, leaning more on Hunt. It's just hard to envision another running back getting a carry at the expense of these two.
The Chiefs only have so many touches to go around, and they will want to lean on the players they trust rather than part-time players who haven’t been involved much during the last few months. There is a chance that another receiver, like Marquise Brown, could get a carry.
However, even that seems risky, given that he has just five career carries in the NFL. Look for the Chiefs to shorten up their rotation of ball carriers and lean heavily on Hunt and Pacheco to tot the rock.
