Fantasy
12/16/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 15 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
DOUBLE STACKS
- Stack: QB Josh Allen WR Stefon Diggs TE Dawson Knox
- Runback: RB Tony Pollard And/Or TE Jake Ferguson
The Buffalo Bills, with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, will run 12 personnel at one of the highest rates in the NFL. As a result, we will see Stefon Diggs continue to see a lot of targets, and I expect him to have a big game this weekend. Diggs has a 33.7 percent target share in 12 personnel and averages 2.88 yards per route run. I am playing Knox with Josh Allen because he will get a red zone touchdown. I want to take the opportunity for the salary relief and correlation to Allen's scoring.
For the Dallas Cowboys, this Bills team plays a lot of two-high shells, and as a result, teams throw to their running back a lot against them. Tony Pollard has an elite role for this team, and I expect him to show up against this team in the passing and rushing games.
The linebackers on the Bills are who you want to attack, and Jake Ferguson can potentially have a multiple-touchdown game. I want a piece of this game because it will be underplayed, so mini-stacking any of these players is also viable.
- Stack: QB Brock Purdy WR Brandon Aiyuk TE George Kittle
- Runback: RB James Conner And/Or WR Michael Wilson
Brock Purdy continues to perform at a high level against every coverage, and the Arizona Cardinals will likely sell out on stopping Christian McCaffrey. As a result, they will play a lot more Cover 3 coverage to get a safety down into the box, opening the door for their pass catchers.
I have no problem playing Deebo Samuel, but my lean is Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle because the Cardinals are coming down into the box, which should limit the yards after the catch opportunity. Aiyuk, in their first matchup, had 148 yards on six targets, while Kittle was primarily a blocker for McCaffrey, who almost had 200 yards.
The 49ers' defense is missing two key pieces up front: DT Arik Armstead and DT Javon Hargrave. With these two injuries, we saw the Seahawks be able to run the ball effectively, and their offensive line got to the second level of the 49ers' defense. Plenty of injuries left to monitor to this defense, and we could see the Cardinals shock it early while running the ball.
In the passing game, I have an interest in Michael Wilson or Marquise Brown, but both are questionable for the game after getting limited practice sessions. The boundary of the 49ers’ is hurt, and that’s where they are most vulnerable right now.
- Stack: QB Jordan Love WR Jayden Reed TE Tucker Kraft
- Runback: RB Rachaad White WR Mike Evans
I have attacked this Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary for quite some time now, and this matchup is the same as others. The Buccaneers will play a lot of Cover 3 coverages, and without Christian Watson, the two most productive players are Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Dontavyion Wicks will get interest from me if he’s ruled in, and if he’s ruled out, Malik Health over Kraft will be in the cards for me this weekend.
The way this game shoots out is through Rachaad White and Mike Evans. These two players dominate the touches for the Buccaneers and the explosive plays. One is fine in single-entry or three-entry max GPPs, but both are needed for the nuclear game of Love. Jordan Love is more expensive than Matthew Stafford this weekend and will be a great pivot option.
- Stack: QB Matthew Stafford WR Puka Nacua WR Cooper Kupp
The Washington Commanders have the worst secondary in the NFL, and Stafford is on a hot streak as a passer. Kyren Williams is very popular and was the original play in my Stafford lineups, but with the field getting sharper, I want to double with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Stafford can throw for more than 350 yards in this matchup, and these two combine for 300 yards and multiple scores. I don’t think the field will play this much because of the pricing and the two sub $4,000 options of Tyler Higbee and Demarcus Robinson.
The Commanders’ offense is very spread out, and the runback here is unnecessary. The only player I was interested in was Jahan Dotson because I think the Rams are beatable deep and on the sideline, but I don’t trust Dotson's role here. Other than that, I believe nobody produces a GPP winning score that is needed to carry Stafford to a big game.
- Stack: QB Derek Carr RB Alvin Kamara WR Rashid Shaheed
- Runback: WR Jalin Hyatt
The New York Giants are going to blitz and play a lot of single-high coverages. Chris Olave has been a DNP all week, and Michael Thomas is on IR, leaving Rashid Shaheed to carry the down-the-field looks. Shaheed won't need a ton of opportunities to pay off this weekend, and I believe he will have a lot of down-the-field looks.
The Alvin Kamara play is tied to his ability as a pass catcher and his touchdown upside in this matchup. The Giants' run defense is not good, and multiple running backs have performed on the ground and through the passing game against them.
Tommy DeVito has been able to run the offense effectively, and in this matchup, we see him throw it down the field to Jalin Hyatt. The New Orleans Saints play a lot of man coverage and have had numerous weeks where a safety gets matched up with the slot wide receiver.
Brian Daboll gets Hyatt onto Tyran Mathieu, and he can win deep down the field. Bryce Young had a lot of opportunities last weekend but failed to take advantage, and I expect DeVito to do so with a much better offensive scheme.
Mini-Stacks
- Atlanta at Carolina
- RB Bijan Robinson WR Jonathan Mingo
The Carolina Panthers have been awful against the run this season, and Bijan Robinson has been playing more than 70 percent of the snaps for multiple weeks. The biggest thing to monitor for the matchup is the offensive line news of the Atlanta Falcons. They have three starting offensive linemen who are questionable for this game.
Jonathan Mingo has had six or more targets in five straight games now. The volume is there for a fairly cheap price point, and I expect the Falcons to travel A.J. Terrell with Adam Thielen. You don’t have to mini-stack this game, but Mingo helps you afford Robinson and is getting the volume of a player that’s $5,500.
- New York Jets at Miami
- RB Breece Hall DST Jets
The New York Jets can be in this game if they limit turnovers and find ways to get their explosive players the ball. Breece Hall is the pathway of doing this with screen passes and testing these linebackers for the Miami Dolphins.
Hall has had six targets in four straight games and had 86 yards receiving last weekend. Hall will need touchdowns, and that’s doable if the Jets' defense can get them turnovers and put the offense in the red zone. The Dolphins offensive line was horrendous against the Titans, and this Jets defense thrives when they can get pressure with four,
One-Offs
- RB Derrick Henry
Case Keenum is starting for the Houston Texans, and we have the Tennessee Titans as three-point favorites. In the games that the Titans have won, Derrick Henry has scored or had 100 yards rushing.
The Texans have been a phenomenal defense all year, but facing Henry in a spot where he can wear you down defensively can cause this team to have issues. Henry is not popular this weekend and is sub $7,000 on DraftKings.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Josh Allen | BUF | DAL | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| QB | Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | $6,800 | $8,400 |
| QB | Jordan Love | GB | TB | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | LA | WAS | $6,000 | $7,200 |
| QB | Derek Carr | NO | NYG | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | ARI | $9,300 | $10,500 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | NYG | $8,600 | $8,900 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | WAS | $7,500 | $9,600 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | NO | $7,300 | $7,800 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | GB | $7,000 | $7,600 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | TEN | HOU | $6,900 | $8,300 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | CAR | $6,800 | $8,600 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | BUF | $6,700 | $7,000 |
| RB | Breece Hall | NYJ | MIA | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| RB | James Conner | ARI | SF | $5,700 | $6,300 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | ATL | $5,600 | $6,700 |
| RB | Jerome Ford | CLE | CHI | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| RB | Antonio Gibson | WAS | LA | $5,200 | $5,600 |
| RB | Patrick Taylor | GB | TB | $4,300 | $5,000 |
| RB | Jamaal Williams | NO | NYG | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | NYJ | $9,900 | $10,200 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | BUF | $9,200 | $9,200 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | DAL | $8,400 | $8,500 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | WAS | $7,800 | $8,200 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | ARI | $7,700 | $8,400 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | GB | $7,500 | $8,300 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | NYJ | $7,400 | $7,000 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | WAS | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | ARI | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | NYG | $7,100 | $7,500 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | CLE | $6,900 | $7,900 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | NE | $6,100 | $6,500 |
| WR | Amari Cooper | CLE | CHI | $6,000 | $7,200 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | LA | $5,600 | $6,700 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | DAL | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | CAR | $5,400 | $6,600 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | GB | TB | $5,300 | $6,400 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | DAL | BUF | $5,200 | $6,300 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | SF | $5,100 | $6,400 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | GB | TB | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | LA | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | NYG | $4,300 | $0 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | TB | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | ATL | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | NO | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Demarcus Robinson | LA | WAS | $3,600 | $5,600 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | SF | $3,300 | $0 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | NO | $3,200 | $5,400 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | NO | $3,100 | $5,500 |
| WR | Samori Toure | GB | TB | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| WR | Malik Heath | GB | TB | $3,000 | $4,400 |
| WR | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | MIA | NYJ | $3,000 | $5,200 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | NE | $7,600 | $7,500 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | ARI | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | DAL | $5,300 | $5,600 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | BUF | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| TE | Logan Thomas | WAS | LA | $3,700 | $5,100 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | LA | WAS | $3,600 | $0 |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | GB | TB | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | DAL | $2,700 | $4,700 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | NYJ | $4,000 | $4,800 |
| DST | Chiefs | KC | NE | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| DST | Saints | NO | NYG | $3,800 | $4,600 |
| DST | Rams | LA | WAS | $3,100 | $4,300 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | MIA | $2,500 | $3,600 |
| DST | Bills | BUF | DAL | $2,400 | $3,800 |
