Opening Spread: Bills -4
Opening Game Total: 50
Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Bengals (23)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of snow
Bills: Questionable: DT DaQuan Jones, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Poyer
Bengals: Out: RT La’el Collins. Questionable: LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa
I have the Bills’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. As our Maxx Forde recently pointed out, Josh Allen’s skillset is an asset for the Bills’ offensive line in both phases. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is very strong in the run game. The Bills’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in pass protection, while the Bengals’ defensive front has a moderate advantage in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
Barring a miracle, the Bengals will be down both their opening-day offensive tackles and their right guard. At full strength, the Bengals’ offensive line worked its way up to a league-average unit, but with these injuries, they are a below-average group entering this contest. At full strength, the Bills have a borderline top-five defensive front. Without Von Miller and A.J. Epenesa, the Bills have more of a league-average defensive front. Given all of the injuries in this trench matchup, Buffalo has a moderate to significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
The Week 17 matchup between these two teams was canceled due to Damar Hamlin’s health crisis. Including last week’s victory over Miami, the Bills have won their last eight games. Including last week’s win over the Ravens, Cincinnati has won its last nine games.
I’d argue that no team relies more on their quarterback than the Bills on Josh Allen. Outside of Stefon Diggs, Allen’s supporting cast on offense is very average. Like with any Bills bet, you must build that bet around Allen carrying this offense where they at least meet expectations.
The most apparent matchup advantage that the Bills have in this contest is their injury-reduced defensive front against the Bengals injury-ravaged offensive line. If the Bills are to win by enough distance to cover this now -5.5 spread, Buffalo’s ability to exploit Cincinnati’s injured offensive line is the clearest path to that outcome. That’s still possible without Von Miller, but it’s much less of a slam dunk than if Miller was available. If Joe Burrow spends most of his Sunday in a muddy pocket, that will make the tall task of mitigating the Bengals’ elite skill group far more manageable for the Bills.
You have two core concerns as a Bills bettor. The first is that Joe Burrow plays well despite the limitations of his injured offensive line. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last season with a below-average offensive line, so that outcome is certainly possible. The second is that Buffalo’s offense is one-dimensional, where that group effectively goes as far as Josh Allen takes it. Surviving a few turnovers against Skylar Thompson’s Dolphins is not the same circumstance as giving Joe Burrow a few more drives. If Buffalo is going to win this game, and cover, Allen will need to limit his turnovers.
Any Bengals bet is built around Joe Burrow and his elite skill group. The Bengals have shown over the last two years they can beat anyone. Entering this game, however, they will almost certainly be down both offensive tackles and their right guard. One of my longstanding football tenants is that you can play effective offense with one liability at offensive tackle, but it becomes much more problematic when you have two. You can game plan around one unreliable offensive tackle because you can give them consistent help in various ways. You can’t really do that with two. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl against the Buccaneers a few years ago is a primary example of what can happen to an elite offense when it loses both of its offensive tackles. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow’s offense is significantly hampered by their injury-reduced offensive line.
No lead is safe when Josh Allen is the opposing quarterback. Buffalo is among the most pass-centric teams in the league, which devalues the Bengals’ high-performing run defense to a degree. We can reasonably expect Cincinnati to focus its game plan on Stefon Diggs, forcing Allen to beat it with his role players. The best-case scenario for Cincinnati is limiting Diggs while forcing a couple of turnovers.
Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow spends this contest under siege behind Cincinnati’s injury-reduced offensive line. Your second-biggest concern is that Josh Allen’s turnover issues disappear and the Bills’ offense plays one of its cleanest games of the season. If both of those conditions happen, that’s the primary path to the Bills winning this game with some distance.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 20
TS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Below, you’ll find six Divisional Round parlays I’ve taken well ahead of this weekend’s playoff games (all lines were taken Monday morning).
You’ll notice this is most certainly not your typical parlay article, as there are no wild longshot bets with multiple uncorrelated parlay legs. All my analysis is statistically and logically motivated.
For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. For example, a +220 parlay has implied odds of 31%. If I’m putting money on this parlay, I expect it to hit more than 31% of the time.
Odds: +350 (22%) on DraftKings
Odds: +220 (31%) on DraftKings
Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings
Odds: +140 (42%) on DraftKings
Odds: -135 (57%) on DraftKings
Odds: +125 (44%) on DraftKings
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Divisional Round parlays. As always, please bet responsibly
“Chargering” is not a term of endearment, it is a sign of failure, as Los Angeles further proved on Saturday after blowing a 27-point lead to the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round. Trey Wingo believes we may have seen the last of Brandon Staley on the Chargers sideline.
