Expert Analysis
11/20/24
12 min read
Surprise NFL Teams That Could Miss 2024 Playoffs
With seven weeks remaining in the 2024 regular season, we’re on track to have six new playoff participants among the 14 teams that will qualify for the postseason. This is typical of recent NFL seasons, as there has been significant turnover among playoff teams.
It’s an exciting prospect for teams and their fan bases who make the January playoff field. And it’s a downer when a team falls short, especially when it’s expected to be there.
Here are six teams (two in the AFC and four in the NFC) who surprisingly could miss the 2024 playoffs when they open with the wild-card round on January 11-13.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 
The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North in 2021 (when they were a Super Bowl team) and 2022 and would’ve been a playoff team last season if Pro Bowl QB Joe Burrow had not missed the last seven games with a wrist injury.
They still finished 9-8 and were my pick to win the division and be a Super Bowl contender this season if Burrow stayed healthy. All’s been well with Burrow, who is having an excellent season with a 106.9 passer rating (third-ranked). He has thrown 27 TD passes, only four interceptions, and leads the league with 3,028 passing yards even with one of his star receivers—Tee Higgins—missing five games.
However, the Bengals' running game ranks 27th, and the defense is 24th in yards allowed, compared to fifth-ranked in 2021 and seventh in 2022.
Cincinnati’s slow starts the past two years (0-2 in 2023 and 0-3 this season) have put it behind the eight-ball. It appeared to be headed towards playoff contention with solid wins in Weeks 6 and 7, with the defense playing better before losing three of the last four games (to fall to 4-7) with an average of 37 points per game allowed.
Included were close losses the last two weeks to Baltimore (35-34 when Zac Taylor went for the win on a failed 2-point conversion) and the Chargers 34-27 when Burrow led his team back from a 21-point deficit before falling short.
The Bengals have two games with the Steelers left, including Week 13 at home after their bye. There’s also a Week 17 home game against Denver that could be pivotal in the wild-card race if Cincinnati can get on a roll with Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland as winnable games.
With the elite Burrow at the helm, it’s possible they could win five of the last six or even all of them. They won’t pass the 8-2 Steelers and 7-4 Ravens in the division, but they could sneak into a wild-card spot. I just don’t see it happening for such an inconsistent team that has trouble closing out games. Plus, the current records and their remaining schedules favor other teams, like the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos, in the wild-card race.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
I thought this was the year the Miami Dolphins would break Buffalo’s four-year hold on the AFC East title after losing the tie-breaker last year and considering the Bills’ many free-agent departures by starters due to salary cap issues. However, injuries on defense derailed the Dolphins late last season when they were an 11-6 wild-card team.
I qualified my prediction by saying the Dolphins needed to have better health in 2024, beginning with QB Tua Tagovailoa playing a full season for the second straight year (which he has not yet done in his career).
Unfortunately for Miami, it didn't put enough emphasis on the backup quarterback spot, so when Tagovailoa missed four games due to another concussion, the Dolphins went 1-3 in his absence as Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley couldn’t get it done.
Upon Tagovailoa’s return, the team suffered close losses to Arizona and Buffalo and then beat the Rams and Raiders the past two weeks to reach 4-6.
Tagovailoa is playing well with a 101.5 passer rating, but Tyreek Hill has turned 30, and he’s having a down season by his recent standards as he deals with a wrist injury. He has only three TD receptions after having 13 last year, and his yardage numbers (523 through 10 games) are far below 2023 when he led the NFL with 1,799 yards.
The defense ranks ninth overall, but the pass rush has been weak, with only 17 sacks, which is third-fewest in the league. The problem is the Dolphins are again missing their best pass rushers. Bradley Chubb (11 sacks in 2023) still hasn’t returned from his ACL tear late last season. Jaelen Phillips missed the last part of 2023 with an Achilles injury, returned for the start of this season, and then tore his ACL in Week 4.
The Bills quickly retooled, and Sean McDermott has done a masterful job. Of course, they have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. So after knocking off the unbeaten Chiefs, there’s no catching the 9-2 Bills.
The Dolphins’ remaining schedule includes a trip to Houston and cold-weather games at Green Bay, Cleveland, and the Jets (the cold weather didn’t pan out well for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in last year’s wild-card round loss at freezing Kansas City, when they scored only seven points). There’s also a Week 16 home game against a likely-to-be-desperate 49ers team.
The schedule, compared to other wild-card contenders, and concern over Tagovailoa getting hurt again lead me to say the Dolphins will miss this year’s playoffs.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Two weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons were cruising towards the NFC South title at 6-3, with two wins in hand over second-place Tampa Bay. Atlanta was then upset at New Orleans and clobbered 38-6 at Denver. The defense allowed four TD passes by rookie Bo Nix, and the offense, led by Kirk Cousins, struggled with only 226 total yards.
What looked like a cinch division title (for the first time since 2016) and a playoff berth (out since 2017) has turned into a nervous time in Atlanta. A look at the upcoming schedules for the Falcons and Buccaneers shows reason for concern.
After its bye this week, Atlanta hosts the 7-3 Chargers, travels to 8-2 Minnesota, and has two more road games at lowly Las Vegas and 7-4 Washington, along with winnable home games against the Giants and Panthers. A 3-3 finish would get them to 9-8.
While Tampa Bay would have to win the division outright due to the Falcons sweep, the Bucs' schedule includes only one game (at the Chargers in Week 15) against a team with a winning record.
Mike Evans (hamstring) is expected back this week at the struggling Giants. The Bucs finished strong last season, with five wins in their last six regular-season games, as Baker Mayfield heated up before beating the Eagles and losing at Detroit in the postseason.
It’s certainly possible for Tampa Bay to draw on last year’s positive experience, reach 10 wins, and overtake the Falcons, who look like a flawed team. On defense, the Falcons rank 25th overall and last with only 10 sacks. The Falcons also are dealing with injuries in the secondary.
Atlanta needed help rushing the passer but didn’t address it at the trade deadline, which could come back to haunt them if its offense can't play better than it did in the last two weeks. The pressure is especially on Cousins, who is having an up-and-down season with four games of 100-plus ratings and six sub-90 games. Meanwhile, the rushing attack fell from ninth in 2023 to 17th.
They still control their destiny, but don’t assume the Falcons are playoff-bound.
DALLAS COWBOYS
The Dallas Cowboys make this list because they entered the season as the defending NFC East champs, expecting to battle the Eagles for the division title despite their playoff flop in the home wild-card loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas was basically inactive in free agency. It dedicated its funds to lucrative extensions for QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb, with an eye towards another top-of-the-market deal in 2025 for All-Pro DE Micah Parsons.
After a decent 3-2 start that included a Week 5 win at Pittsburgh, this season has turned into a disaster in Big D. The Cowboys have dropped five straight games, including three blowouts at home by Detroit, Philadelphia, and Houston, in which Dallas was outscored by a combined 115-25.
Prescott went 3-5 in his starts before a torn hamstring ended his season. His passer rating fell from 105.9 last season (second in the league) to a career-low 86.0 (27th-ranked). The defense has struggled with Parsons missing four games due to a sprained ankle and Lisfranc injuries sidelining DE DeMarcus Lawrence and CB DaRon Bland.
Cooper Rush has replaced Prescott, and he had only 45 passing yards against the Eagles and two lost fumbles. He threw for 354 yards against the Texans but turned it over twice and was sacked five times. Trey Lance could see some playtime soon.
The Cowboys have the league’s second-worst rushing attack, yet they didn’t make a move to acquire a quality back at the trade deadline (or a needed pass rusher). Instead, they traded a 2025 fourth-rounder for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo, who had only 12 catches in nine games for Carolina and no catches on four targets against Houston.
The 3-7 Cowboys probably have to run the table to make the playoffs, and that’s highly unlikely with their schedule, which includes two games with Washington and a trip to Philly. They also have a problematic minus-11 turnover margin and a league-high 20 giveaways.
Mike McCarthy is a lame-duck coach in the final year of his contract and will take the fall after his team’s failure this season, but a lot of the mess is on Owner/GM Jerry Jones, who is not going to fire himself.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams won seven of their last eight regular-season games to reach the 2023 postseason as a 10-win wild card team before pushing Detroit to the brink in a first-round loss. Injuries to star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, along with adjusting to the retirement of star DT Aaron Donald, contributed to a sluggish 1-4 start this season, which included a 41-10 Week 2 road shellacking by the Cardinals.
The return of Kupp and Nacua was a turning point for the Rams, who have won four of their last five to reach .500. Included was a critical Week 8 win over the Vikings followed by a thrilling overtime victory at Seattle in which the Rams rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win with a defensive stop in OT followed by a 39-yard TD pass from Matthew Stafford to Demarcus Robinson for the game-winner.
Coach Sean McVay has done a great job during this turnaround. He’s getting the offense untracked and has a young defense with a lot of playmakers, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jared Verse.
The challenging remaining schedule and any recurrence of injury issues could derail Los Angeles’ postseason hopes. The demands of the schedule start on Sunday night with the hot Eagles (six straight wins) coming to town. There’s a trap game at New Orleans in Week 13 against the revived Saints, followed by home against the Bills and the 49ers, with critical home matchups in the final two weeks against Arizona and Seattle.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The defending NFC champs have gone from an overtime loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII to a middle-of-the-pack, injury-riddled 5-5 team this season.
The San Francisco 49ers have a 1-3 division record after losing at home to Seattle on Geno Smith’s 13-yard TD run with 18 seconds left. That was their third loss in division games this season, where they held the lead in the last two minutes.
They’re one game back of the surprising Cardinals, tied with the Rams and Seahawks, and have a daunting schedule down the stretch compared to their foes in the tight NFC West.
San Francisco heads to 7-3 Green Bay on Sunday for a game with significant playoff implications, and there are injury concerns surrounding three of their best players—QB Brock Purdy (right shoulder), TE George Kittle (hamstring), and DE Nick Bosa (oblique) who are all Pro Bowlers. The 49ers already have lost two key players for the season—WR Brandon Aiyuk (ACL/MCL) and DT Javon Hargrave (triceps).
Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey missed the first eight games with an Achilles injury, and he’s always an injury risk.
Following the Packers game, the Niners are at 9-2 Buffalo, have road games left at Miami and Arizona (in the season finale) plus key home games in Week 15 on Thursday night against the Rams and Week 17 on Monday night vs. hot Detroit.
It will be a huge challenge for Coach Kyle Shanahan to get his talented but wounded team back to the playoffs for the fourth straight year. The first Super Bowl title for the franchise since 1994 was the goal entering the season, which appears far-fetched.
