Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks: Eagles' WR Duo Gets Plus Matchup

Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline eight Divisional Round Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Travis Etienne Lower than 3.0 Receptions - Josh Larky

Etienne has played 18 career games in the NFL and has four or more receptions in none of them
This line should either push (money back), or Etienne should go lower

Brandon Aiyuk Higher than 55.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Aiyuk is higher in five of seven games with Brock Purdy at quarterback
Aiyuk is higher in 12 of 18 games overall this season.
Since Purdy became QB, Aiyuk is averaging 75 air yards per game
- No other 49ers player is averaging even 40 air yards per game during this span

A.J. Brown Higher than 74.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

Brown has more than 74.5 receiving yards in four straight, including Week 18 against this same Giants team
The Giants use man defense more than any other team in the NFL, and Brown lead the NFL in receiving yards against man coverage
- Brown is also third in the NFL (minimum 100 routes run) in yards per route run against man, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams
Receivers in a similar tier to Brown all went higher against the Giants (CeeDee Lamb twice, Justin Jefferson)

Joe Mixon Higher than 25.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Mixon has higher than this number in nine of 15 games (60%) this season
Mixon averaged 31.5 receiving yards per game in 2022
The Bengals are down three offensive line starters, and Burrow will need to get the ball out quickly against Buffalo
- Expect an increase in dump-offs to Mixon

Richie James Lower than 46.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

James had fewer than 46.5 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games played
This line is the highest among other Giants receivers (Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton)
The Eagles allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game to opposing WRs in the regular season
James played only 60% of the snaps last week, which was his fewest since Week 13

Trevor Lawrence Higher than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - Josh Larky

Lawrence was higher than this number in only eight of 18 games (44%)
But, every quarterback that faced the Chiefs threw for at least two touchdowns this year, except:
- Malik Willis
- Bryce Perkins
- Geno Smith without Tyler Lockett
- Russell Wilson in Week 17 (he had three passing TDs against the Chiefs in the first matchup, and then ran in two during the second matchup)
- Jarrett Stidham in Week 18
So while a QB threw for multiple TDs in 12 of 17 games against Kansas City, practically every competent QB hit this number against the Chiefs
The Chiefs allowed 33 passing TDs, four more than any other team this season

Isiah Pacheco Lower than 13.5 Rushing Attempts - Ben Wolby

Pacheco had fewer than 13.5 rushing attempts in 11 of 17 games, as well as fewer in two straight
Ronald Jones saw 10 carries and averaged 4.5 yards per carry in Week 18 – I think he’s likely to see a few carries if active
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was designated to return from injured reserve and is likely to eat into this workload if activated
Jerick McKinnon is the most valuable player in this backfield. Though he’s most likely to see passing-down work, he’s still averaging just more than four carries per game
Despite nearly always being in a positive game script, Kansas City still runs the ball at the seventh-lowest rate

DeVonta Smith Higher than 63.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Smith was without a catch in Week 1
- Since then, ten of 16 games have been higher than this number
Smith is averaging 70.4 receiving yards per game, which includes the zero from Week 1.
Smith had eight targets in each game against the Giants during the regular season.
- Smith was higher in both contests.
Smith has been higher than this number in six straight games.
Our Head of DFS, Jordan Vanek, released an incredible coverage article this week that details why Smith should feast against the Giants, given their propensity to play man coverage.