Fantasy
11/24/23
26 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Week 12 Fantasy Game By Game Preview
This breaks down everything you need to know for fantasy football for Sunday and Monday Week 12 NFL games. This is the one-stop shop for my research and in-depth thoughts, from matchups to player-specific takes.
Sunday Games
Jaguars at Texans
Spread: Jaguars favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 47.5 points
Jaguars Offense
Trevor Lawrence is in the quarterback streaming conversation against a Houston Texans defense that’s given up high passing yardage to opposing passers. Quarterbacks are throwing for the seventh-most yards (256) against it, at the eighth-highest yards per attempt. Lawrence has been tough to trust in fantasy this year but should be able to muster 240-260 yards, along with 1-2 scores (think 15-20 fantasy points).
Receivers against Houston have struggled, with only one (Ja’Marr Chase) topping 20 PPR fantasy points. You’re starting Christian Kirk (and probably Calvin Ridley), but the ceilings aren’t particularly high. Going back to that Cincinnati Bengals game, Chase and Tyler Boyd are the only two receivers to reach 100 yards against Houston this year.
The Texans are an average matchup for fantasy running backs, and Travis Etienne should be started in all formats. However, for him to reach a fantasy RB1 performance, he’ll need to take over a larger share of the backfield than in recent weeks.
Tank Bigsby’s nine carries from Week 11 were on the final drive, once they were up by several scores on the Tennessee Titans. D’Ernest Johnson’s seven carries and one target last week is more concerning, and those eight touches to Etienne’s 17 is a disparity we’d like to see widened against Houston.
Texans Offense
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the more extreme pass funnel defenses, which fits in well with C.J. Stroud’s ascending pass attack. The soon-to-be Rookie of the Year is already leading the NFL with 296 passing yards per game. In this matchup, he faces a Jaguars team allowing 265 passing yards per game (fifth-most) to quarterbacks yet just 61 rushing yards each week to running backs (third-lowest). Stroud is a bonafide fantasy QB1 in Week 12.
Tank Dell and Nico Collins are the primary beneficiaries here, and both are strong starts in all formats. If Noah Brown is active, treat him as a WR3 type. Robert Woods draws flex consideration if Brown is out. Dalton Schultz has topped 11 PPR points in six of his past seven games and should be started every week in fantasy football as he’s attached to the league-leading Texans pass attack.
After back-to-back games with at least 22 carries, 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, Devin Singletary is no longer a clear fantasy start. Dameon Pierce should rejoin this backfield after missing the past two weeks due to injury, and as previously stated, this Jaguars team is not one to target for fantasy backs.
Buccaneers at Colts
Spread: Colts favored by 2.5 points
Game Total: 44.5 points
Buccaneers Offense
Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 237 yards in six of his past seven games, tossing multiple touchdowns in four contests. He’s been a high-floor but low-ceiling streaming option throughout the season. Against the Indianapolis Colts, who rank as a slightly above-average matchup for pocket passers, Mayfield is a mid-range fantasy QB2.
Mike Evans should be started everywhere, and Chris Godwin has been disappointing this fantasy season but should see enough volume to draw WR3 consideration. Godwin has at least six targets in all but one game this season, but his low depth of target has held him back — he’s reached 60 yards in just three of 10 games and has only crested 14 fantasy points twice.
Rachaad White has the best matchup this week among all Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as the Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. White has reached 16 fantasy points in five straight, with at least 15 touches in each of those games.
He’s second among RBs in receiving behind only Christian McCaffrey and is one of several running backs who is game script and opponent proof for fantasy. White is in the mix for touchdowns if the Buccaneers offense is rolling. When trailing, he’s one of their top pass-catchers, and he's reached six receptions or 46 receiving yards in each of his past five games.
Colts Offense
Only the Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to the running back position this year. Overall, RBs are averaging the seventh-fewest rushing yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game against Tampa Bay. Jonathan Taylor has returned to his bell cow ways, and, off the bye, he should see 20-plus touches. Consider him a low-end fantasy RB1 type due to volume, which should be inefficient in this matchup.
The Buccaneers can get beat through the air, allowing 288 passing yards per game (second-highest). Gardner Minshew is a preferred fantasy streamer at QB, and Michael Pittman is a top-12 option this week. Josh Downs appears to be recovered from his knee injury and looks like a high-end fantasy WR3 this week.
No other Colts should be considered in fantasy, with the offense consolidated around the four names mentioned above.
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Steelers at Bengals
Spread: Steelers favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 35.5 points
Steelers Offense
The team fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada earlier this week. It’s unclear exactly what will change, but expect the offense to either remain the same or improve. It’s tough to see a unit led by Kenny Pickett, who has thrown for 160 yards or fewer in four straight games, dipping further below current expectations.
The Bengals have struggled against opposing passing games this year, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt (second-highest). Don’t expect heavy volume from a Pittsburgh Steelers team in a game total that’s under 36 points — usually, totals like this are reserved for 30 mph cross winds, but Pickett should at least be moderately efficient. Diontae Johnson has target shares above 30 percent in three of his past four games and is a fantasy WR2 type in a strong matchup.
George Pickens’ production has cratered in the past five games since Johnson returned, and he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one contest, averaging three receptions, 42 yards, and 8.4 PPR fantasy points during that span. He’s just a flex option this week.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth returned from injury last week and ran just 13 routes to Pickens’ 33. Freiermuth should not be started due to workload concerns.
Jaylen Warren has greatly out–produced Najee Harris in recent weeks, and over his past three games, has averaged 12 carries, 106 rushing yards, 2.7 receptions, 17 receiving yards, and 19 PPR fantasy points.
Warren is a fantasy RB2 against a Bengals run defense, giving up the third-highest yards per carry (4.6) this season. The only knock on Warren is his 12 carries per game are fewer than Harris’ 15 over the past three weeks. The hope for fantasy managers is that firing their offensive coordinator opens the door for more Warren touches.
Bengals Offense
The switch from quarterback Joe Burrow to Jake Browning will be a rude awakening for fantasy managers. Even with Higgins out, it’s tough to see Chase producing anything better than Garrett Wilson’s recent stat lines. The floor and ceiling for all Bengals pass-catchers is frighteningly low, and Chase is a fantasy WR2 this week, with a floor below those surrounding him in the rankings. He should get peppered with 10-12 targets, but four catches for 48 yards is very much on the table here.
Joe Mixon is in line for 20-25 touches in what should now become a run-centric offense with Burrow’s injury. Mixon is a fantasy RB2 based on volume. Still, the Thanksgiving performances from A.J. Dillon (11.1 points) and Zach Charbonnet (9.8) are warning signs of how empty volume doesn’t always produce a fantasy-friendly stat line.
Saints at Falcons
Spread: Saints favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 41.5 points
Saints Offense
Derek Carr is back for this game, so those hoping for the Jameis Winston “experience” will be disappointed. At face value, the Falcons present above streaming conditions for Carr, as Atlanta allows 19.4 fantasy points per game to QBs (fifth-highest). However, much of that is due to rushing prowess when digging in further, as the Falcons have allowed just 214 passing yards per game.
With Michael Thomas on injured reserve, expect further target consolidation around Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Olave has averaged 9.4 targets (13th best) and 130 air yards (best) per game this season and should have ample opportunities to beat a Falcons secondary that’s been up and down throughout the year. Four touchdowns allowed to Will Levis in Week 8, yet 207 yards and only one touchdown to Lawrence in Week 4 highlight this.
Prior to their Week 11 bye, Shaheed had a career-high nine targets, so there’s boom potential for the speedy downfield threat now that he’s the de facto WR2 in this offense.
Taysom Hill remains an enigma, and the tight end has no fantasy floor but a multi-touchdown ceiling each week. His usage remains impossible to predict, but with Thomas out, Hill does appear to be the fourth passing game option behind Olave, Shaheed, and RB Alvin Kamara.
The Falcons have shut down fantasy RBs this season, allowing zero rushing touchdowns and the fourth-fewest receptions per game (3.3). Kamara’s floor is lowered in this one, but he’s still a must-start due to his role. Kamara has averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game this year, with a league-high 43 receiving yards per game at the position.
Falcons Offense
Head coach Arthur Smith re-committed to Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback for the rest of the season. It’s unclear if this was a merit-based decision, and Ridder has been one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks in real life and fantasy (just 14 points per game).
The Saints are a middle-of-the-road defense against quarterbacks for fantasy football at first glance, but it becomes more worrisome when you adjust for their schedule. They’ve faced Stroud and Lawrence this season. All other opponents sported below-average quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Mayfield, Mac Jones, Minshew, Tyson Bagent and Joshua Dobbs. Ridder is in the streaming conversation this week.
Just five Falcons receivers have hit 15 PPR fantasy points in a game this year, third-lowest in the league — Drake London (twice), Jonnu Smith (twice) and Kyle Pitts. No Falcons from this passing attack should be confidently started in this matchup.
Bijan Robinson’s usage has been frustrating, but he’s still a strong start every week. If we remove the Week 7 headache game, where he received just one touch, he’s averaging 14 carries, 4.8 targets, and 15 fantasy points per game. The New Orleans Saints pose a tough matchup, but Robinson’s volume and talent are enough to make him matchup-proof.
Patriots at Giants
Spread: Patriots favored by 3.5 points
Game Total: 33.5 points
Patriots Offense
We’ll keep this preview short and sweet. The 33.5-point game total is the lowest of the season, and for good reason. On the New England Patriots side, Jones has averaged 203 passing yards per start, throwing 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions across 10 games.
Wide receiver Demario Douglas is a WR3 type against a New York Giants team ceding the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Douglas has at least six targets in four straight but is yet to reach 15 fantasy points in any game, thanks to his paltry six-yard average target depth — similar to most tight ends.
Hunter Henry can be streamed if desperate at the tight end position, as he’s averaged just over eight fantasy points per game since WR Kendrick Bourne’s ACL tear.
The Giants allow the third-most rushing yards per game to backs (114), and Rhamondre Stevenson is the primary ball-carrier. He’s a fantasy RB2 in a good matchup where the game script should always be in New England’s favor.
Giants Offense
The passing offense can be summed up by this tweet. Do not start any Giants players attached to the passing offense.
Saquon Barkley is a volume-based fantasy RB2 this week against a Patriots defense that’s middle of the pack vs. the position.
Panthers at Titans
Spread: Titans favored by 3.5 points
Game Total: 36.5 points
Panthers Offense
The Titans have been a pass funnel defense this season, with teams finding more success through the air against them. Colts and Steelers running backs rushed for more than 100 yards against Tennessee, but the other eight opponents were all under this mark. The committee of Chuba Hubbard (11 carries in Week 11) and Miles Sanders (10 carries in Week 11) should be left on fantasy benches.
The Titans have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fifth-best) to opposing passers, but Young is unlikely to take advantage of this. Young has been under 220 passing yards in seven of 10 games, and he’s reached 15 fantasy points in just two.
Wide receiver Adam Thielen is the only viable fantasy start from this offense, as he’s reached double-digit fantasy points in all but two games, averaging 17.3 PPR points overall. Rookie Jonathan Mingo has a target share of at least 20 percent each of the past two weeks, but those 13 total targets have resulted in just four catches for 26 yards.
Titans Offense
The game total of 36.5, with a close spread, indicates that, like Carolina, Tennessee’s offense is not one to get optimistic about. After a debut for the ages, Levis has fallen back to earth, with fewer than 15 fantasy points in three straight, going under 200 yards in each of his past two matchups.
DeAndre Hopkins is the only receiver worth starting, and he’s reached double-digit fantasy points in three of four games with Levis. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers this year, but that’s mainly because most teams have blown out the hapless team from Carolina. In what should be a relatively close game, Hopkins should get it done as a fantasy WR2 type.
The Panthers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to running backs (third-highest) and 114 yards per game (second-highest). Despite limited receiving performances from running backs, the Panthers still allow the second-most fantasy points overall to the position.
Expect close to 20 carries from Derrick Henry, whose rushing yards prop in betting markets is 67.5, higher than all but a small handful of running backs this week. Because I have minimal faith in the Titans' offense to score multiple touchdowns, Henry is a fantasy RB2, but he should be trusted to at least hit double-digit points in this contest.
Bills at Eagles
Spread: Broncos favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 36 points
Bills Offense
For all the criticism this offense has faced, Buffalo is scoring 26.7 points per game (seventh-highest). Josh Allen's quarterback rating is 97.6 on the year, higher than in 2021 and 2022. Allen and his offense should cook against the Philadelphia Eagles, who allow quarterbacks the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20). Conversely, the Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points to the running back position this year. Think of Philadelphia as the most extreme pass funnel defense in the NFL this year.
No team has allowed more fantasy points each week to wide receivers than the Eagles (45.8 PPR points per game), and Stefon Diggs should rebound nicely after back-to-back performances under seven fantasy points for the first time in his Bills career. These represent two of Diggs’ four career games under seven fantasy points during his Buffalo tenure (60-game sample). Diggs is an elite fantasy start in what should be a bounce-back performance.
Gabe Davis has at least 20 fantasy points in three of 11 games, but he’s been below 10 in six games. The boom-or-bust receiver averages just 10.1 fantasy points per game, and he’s always a risky start. However, fantasy managers should start Davis over most receivers who aren’t clear-cut top-24 options this week, thanks to the matchup.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid is an elite fantasy TE1 each week and has averaged 7.8 targets, 6.8 receptions, 64 yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game in his past five (and only five) games as the full-time starter.
James Cook is a shaky fantasy start against the Eagles run defense this week, though Isiah Pacheco broke through for a solid game last week. With Cook splitting work with Latavius Murray, fantasy managers should look to other options, and I have Cook ranked outside the top 25 at the position this week.
Eagles Offense
Jalen Hurts is the current fantasy QB1 this year, facing a Bills defense that’s been hurt by injuries. With Dallas Goedert’s injury, this is a pass attack with a similar consolidation to Miami. Start A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith confidently in all formats.
The Buffalo Bills have been a liability against running backs all season, and D’Andre Swift is an elite fantasy start. Swift has at least 15 touches in every game since Week 2, averaging 20 touches per game during this nine-game span.
Browns at Broncos
Spread: Broncos favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 36 points
Browns Offense
Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been under 170 passing yards in both his starts this year, throwing no touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s been under eight fantasy points in both games and should not be started anywhere against a surging Broncos defense.
The only Cleveland pass-catcher that should be started is TE David Njoku. He’s had a target share above 21 percent in five straight games, reaching double-digit fantasy points in each game. That has come with three different quarterbacks, and it’s safe to assume the team is making a concerted effort to get him touches each week. With Thompson-Robinson last week, Njoku’s 15 targets were higher than every Week 11 player not named Keenan Allen (16).
The Denver Broncos have been a sieve against running backs, and their 5.6 yards per carry allowed is more than a full yard above any other defense. Their 6.0 receptions per game to the position ranks fourth-highest, and overall, no team is allowing more than their 31.8 fantasy points per game.
Jerome Ford is a fantasy RB2 type despite splitting carries with Kareem Hunt. Ford has been getting the majority of the red zone work and has a bigger pass game role most weeks.
Quietly, Ford has averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game in relief of the injured Nick Chubb despite the quarterback carousel in Cleveland. Ford has at least 14 touches in the past three games alongside Hunt. To his credit, Hunt is a flex play due to the matchup, with at least 10 carries in six straight games.
Broncos Offense
Russell Wilson has been a surgical game manager this season, tossing 19 touchdowns to just four interceptions. However, he’s only averaging 207 passing yards per game, his lowest mark since his rookie season. Against a Browns team allowing a league-low 12.1 fantasy points per game to QBs, sit Wilson this week.
Wide receivers fare similarly poorly against Cleveland, and only the Jets have presented a tough matchup for receivers heading into Week 12. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are fringe WR3 types.
The one area the Browns' defense is beatable is on the ground, where they allow 4.4 yards per carry to RBs, eight-highest in the league.
Javonte Williams has handled 76 carries since Week 7, and no other Broncos runner has more than 16 during that span. Williams has averaged 19 carries, 3.2 targets, 89 total yards and 14.9 fantasy points per game since Week 7. Think of him as a bell cow in a solid matchup, where the 36-point game total indicates touchdowns will be hard to come by on both ends.
Rams at Cardinals
Spread: Rams favored by 1.5 points
Game Total: 44.5 points
Rams Offense
Matthew Stafford hasn’t looked right the past few weeks due to his thumb injury, and he hasn’t reached 240 passing yards since Week 4. Fortunately, Cooper Kupp will be healthy for this game, and the Arizona Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most (18.6) fantasy points per game at the sixth-highest yards per attempt efficiency (7.7) to QBs.
Kupp is a fantasy WR1, with Puka Nacua in the WR2 conversation. The two have seen similar target shares when sharing the field this year. Especially in PPR leagues, these two are a dynamic duo, as the Cardinals have allowed a 72 percent catch rate to the position this year, the highest in the league.
Kyren Williams is set to return from injured reserve this week, with Royce Freeman the likely backup. To begin, Arizona has allowed 26.6 fantasy points per game to RBs, the third-highest mark.
While head coach Sean McVay’s comments this week hint at a slightly reduced role for Williams in his return, he averaged 16 carries, four targets and 18.5 fantasy points per game during those initial six games. A slight workload reduction shouldn’t keep Williams out of your fantasy lineups.
Cardinals Offense
Under Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have been much more fun to watch, though Murray hasn’t played particularly well yet as a passer.
He’s averaging 20.5 fantasy points through two games and appears fully healthy, but 231 passing yards per game, along with one passing touchdown and two picks, hint that there could be more in the tank shortly. Murray is an every-week fantasy QB1 who has run at least six times for 33 yards and a touchdown in both games.
Wide receiver Michael Wilson will miss this contest due to injury, which should be the Marquise Brown bounce-back game. Brown has just three receptions for 46 yards over his two games with Murray at the helm, and his average depth of target has been at least 16 yards in both games. He likely runs more routes close to the line of scrimmage this week to get him going in this offense.
Before the two Murray games, Brown averaged nine targets, 99 air yards, and 13 fantasy points per game in his eight prior contests. And last year, Brown averaged 18 fantasy points per game in the first six games during Hopkins’ suspension. The ceiling is immense for Brown, still.
The Los Angeles Rams are an average matchup for running backs on the ground, but no defense has allowed fewer receiving yards per game (19) to the position. James Conner is a fantasy RB2 based on volume, but don’t expect a significant all-purpose workload this week.
Chiefs at Raiders
Spread: Chiefs favored by 8.5 points
Game Total: 42.5 points
Chiefs Offense
The Kansas City Chiefs operate one of the most frustrating fantasy offenses in the NFL. Despite Patrick Mahomes front and center, the wide receivers have totaled just four games (one apiece from Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) of at least 15 fantasy points. None have reached 20 in a game.
The Las Vegas Raiders' pass defense has also been surprisingly competent this year, ranking above average in nearly every pass defense metric. Rice is the preferred option here, but he’s not a must-start.
Mahomes has been below 20 fantasy points in six of his past seven, though he’s been above 17 in five of those seven games. He’s a fantasy QB1 each week, but managers should recognize this isn’t the Chiefs offense of years past.
The Raiders have been gashed by running backs this season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (25.0) and rushing yards (109) per game. Pacheco just had 89 yards against the dreaded Eagles defense, so 125 yards is on the table for him in Week 12. He’s a borderline fantasy RB1.
Raiders Offense
Aidan O’Connell’s offense is a much tougher watch than the Jimmy Garoppolo version, and the Chiefs are allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game (190) at the second-worst efficiency (6.1 yards per attempt).
The only receiver who can be started is Davante Adams, though his floor is still five or six fantasy points. In four O’Connell starts, Jakobi Meyers has averaged four targets, 2.5 receptions, 35 yards and under eight PPR fantasy points per game.
The Chiefs have been consistently vulnerable in the running game, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, second-highest in the NFL. Game script won’t be in RB Josh Jacobs’ favor with the Raiders 8.5-point underdogs, but I’m not sure that matters. This team has been run-heavy with O’Connell, and Jacobs has at least 15 touches each of the past four weeks.
Given the matchup, 20 pass and 30 rush attempts wouldn’t be a surprising game plan for Las Vegas in Week 12. Jacobs is a low-end fantasy RB1 type this week.
Ravens at Chargers
Spread: Ravens favored by 3.5 points
Game Total: 48 points
Ravens Offense
Life after Mark Andrews for this Baltimore Ravens offense might be rough, but at least they have a date with the best pass game matchup in Week 12. The Los Angeles Chargers allow 316 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, 28 yards more than the second-ranked Buccaneers.
While Lamar Jackson isn’t a volume passer, the Chargers’ 8.1 yards per attempt is also the highest mark in the league. Jackson could implode without Andrews, but most likely, he has a relatively efficient outing and gets it done on the ground, too. Joey Bosa is out for the Chargers, so the defense will struggle to contain Jackson in this game.
Zay Flowers should flirt with a 30 percent target share in a great matchup and is on the fantasy WR2 radar. Odell Beckham Jr. is a boom-or-bust fantasy WR3 who should see increased target volume without Andrews. Beckham has topped four targets just three times this year, with a high of seven, and 5-8 targets should be his Week 12 expectation.
Isaiah Likely is averaging just eight yards per game after a promising rookie campaign in 2022, and he is just a tight end streamer in a good matchup. No managers should start him with more than a modicum of confidence.
Chargers Offense
The Ravens have allowed just 12.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year, but they haven’t faced a particularly strong group. The Ravens went against Stroud in Week 1 (his debut) and then faced Burrow in Week 2 while he was nursing a calf injury.
Since then, they’ve faced Minshew, Thompson-Robinson, Pickett, Tannehill and Malik Willis, Jared Goff, Dobbs, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson and the combination of Burrow and Browning last week. Justin Herbert will be Baltimore’s toughest test of the season, and Herbert is a lower end fantasy QB1 this week, despite the matchup.
Only Tyreek Hill averages more fantasy points per game than Keenan Allen, who just led the NFL in Week 11 targets with 16. He’s an elite start every week regardless of opponent. Quentin Johnston is a flex play who would have had a big Week 11 if he didn’t have an egregious drop on a deep throw late in the game.
At tight end, Gerald Everett should return from injury, but he’s just a desperation streamer who hasn’t reached 12 points in any game and is averaging 6.3 on the season.
The Ravens are a slightly below average matchup across the board for running backs, but Austin Ekeler is still a high-end fantasy RB1 every week.
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Monday Night's Game
Bears at Vikings
Spread: Vikings favored by 3 points
Game Total: 43 points
Bears Offense
Justin Fields is, at worst, a mid-range fantasy QB1 each week, who returned from injury in Week 11 without skipping a beat. His 18 rush attempts and 104 rushing yards represented season-highs in their close game last week against the Detroit Lions. Fields has averaged over 28 fantasy points per game in his last three full games.
The Minnesota Vikings are a pass funnel defense, allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt but just 3.6 yards per carry. Expect around 35 Fields dropbacks, along with about 10 rush attempts.
DJ Moore averages more than 22 fantasy points per game when Fields starts and finishes the game but just 10 points per game when Tyson Bagent is the primary signal caller. The Vikings allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers, and Moore is a must-start. No other wide receiver from this team should be started.
Tight end Cole Kmet has been inconsistent all year, but his ceiling has been TE1 in fantasy. He has four games with at least 15 fantasy points (two above 23) but seven games under 10 fantasy points. He’s in the low-end TE1 conversation this week against Minnesota.
On Friday, D’Onta Foreman was a limited practice participant, so his ankle sprain may not keep him out of Week 12 action. In Week 11, Khalil Herbert handled 16 carries to six for Foreman and six for rookie Roschon Johnson.
Herbert ran the most routes in the backfield, too. However, Foreman had the goal line work and vultured the touchdown from Herbert. If Foreman is active, Herbert is just a fantasy RB3 in a tough matchup. If Foreman misses this contest, Herbert will be in the RB2 dialogue this week.
Vikings Offense
Justin Jefferson will not return this week, so fantasy managers must wait until Week 14 (Minnesota has a Week 13 bye) to insert him into their lineups.
Dobbs has 268 and 221 passing yards in his two starts for the Vikings and has run at least seven times for 44 yards and a touchdown in both games. He’s a fantasy QB1 type against a surging, but still average, Chicago Bears defense that’s allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game this year (18.3)
With Dobbs under center, TE T.J. Hockenson leads the team with a 30 percent target share, with rookie Jordan Addison at 21 percent. Hockenson is an elite start at tight end, while Jordan Addison is a fantasy WR3 type with big play upside.
At running back, Alexander Mattison is handling the bulk of the carries along with the red zone and goal line attempts. He’s been a liability all season in the passing game. Rookie Ty Chandler has been far more efficient on his carries and in the passing game.
Both are nearly identical starts for fantasy (RB3 range), with Chandler poised for more total yards while Mattison is far more likely to score. The Bears allow the fewest yards per carry (3.4) to the position but the third-most receptions (6.2) and most receiving yards (63). Chandler has the better matchup here.
