Betting

2023 NFL Divisional Round Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Saturday’s Slate

The Divisional Round is one of the finest weeks of football all year. We kick this weekend off with two Saturday games that I’ll evaluate from a sports betting perspective. Below I provide summaries for each of those matchups, with a link to my in-depth betting previews for those contests.

No. 4 Jaguars at No. 1 Chiefs

Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain or snow late in the contest

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Chiefs -8.5
  • This line has moved to Chiefs -9.5
  • This total opened at 51.5-points
  • This total remains at 51.5-points

Bottom Line

The Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs are the measuring stick in the AFC. No one wins every game, but Kansas City is the most reliable team in the league. Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars are the interesting upstart that’s ahead of schedule. I expect this to be the last time Lawrence will be a two-score underdog for the next decade.

Ultimately, I have the Chiefs winning this contest, but I’m taking the Jaguars against the spread or passing given this large number. I took Lawrence over 249.5 yards passing and for him to not throw an interception at plus money on our Player Prop Happy Hour show. I also tailed Josh Larky on Christian Kirk’s over-yards receiving prop, although the line has moved since we made that play.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 Jaguars 24

No. 6 Giants at No. 1 Eagles

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Eagles -7
  • This line has moved to Eagles -7.5
  • This total opened at 48-points
  • This total has moved to 47.5-points

Bottom Line

From a pure talent standpoint, the Eagles have an advantage against the Giants at virtually every position group. If Jalen Hurts looks like the MVP candidate he was before his throwing-shoulder injury, the Eagles could dominate this game in every aspect. If Hurts looks rusty, that opens the door for the Giants to keep this one close.

 

The winning formula for the Giants was driven by strong defensive efforts paired with Daniel Jones’ low-risk offense. While New York’s offense has had a limited ceiling all year, Jones carved up a Vikings defense that fired their defensive coordinator in the wake of their wild-card loss. Expect the Eagles’ defense to be a far more problematic opponent for Jones and the upstart Giants.

I have some level of interest in all of the Eagles’ key offensive players to exceed expectations in this matchup. Eagles star right tackle Lane Johnson is off the injury report, which increases my enthusiasm. Since I think a lot of Eagles players are in for a big day, I will avoid straight bets in this matchup. However, I’m building a same game parlay where the Eagles smash in the air and one where they smash on the ground.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27 Giants 16

WATCH MORE: Top Player Props for Divisional Round

Betting

10 Player Props for 2023 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Ten of the best value player props available to bettors in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Reynolds’ Top Props

Trevor Lawrence OVER 249.5 Yards Passing (-115 DraftKings)

  • Lawrence has beat this in nine of 18 games, so this is kind of his baseline performance. He also beat this earlier in the year against Kansas City… This is like a 65% outcome for me.

Lawrence UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (+115 DraftKings)

  • Lawrence has thrown a pick in only seven games this year, and did not throw one against Kansas City.

George Kittle UNDER 51.5 Yards Receiving (-114 FanDuel)

  • He’s under this number in five of Brock Purdy’s seven games. Dallas is giving up the fifth-fewest yards receiving to tight ends… I could see him being used more directly as a blocker in this matchup.

Larky’s Top Props

Christian Kirk OVER 63.5 (DraftKings -115)

  • I think we’d all take this into the high 60s. Kirk is over this number in 10 of 18 games this year. When the Jaguars and Chiefs played earlier this year, he caught nine targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. On the season, the Chiefs allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the slot.

Travis Etienne OVER 17.5 Yards Receiving (-125 DraftKings)

  • Travis Etienne has been over this in nine of 18 games this year… In 17 games this year, 20 running backs were over 17.5 yards receiving against Kansas City. Overall, Kansas City allowed the fourth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.

Lawrence OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 FanDuel)

  • We love this matchup. Every quarterback who faced Kansas City this season threw at least two touchdowns except Malik Willis, Bryce Perkins, Geno Smith (without Tyler Lockett), Russell Wilson in Week 17 (with two rushing touchdowns), and Jarrett Stidham.

DeVonta Smith OVER 63.5 Yards Receiving (-115 DraftKings)

  • In 10 of his 16 games since Week 1, he’s been over this number… He had eight targets in both games against the Giants, with 64 and 67 yards… Everything is pointing at both A.J. Brown and Smith to have great days.

 

Wolby’s Top Props

Brandon Aiyuk OVER 53.5 Yards (-115 DraftKings)

  • He’s averaging 12 more yards than this with Brock Purdy as his passer, and he’s 5-1 over this number… Wide receivers against Dallas with Aiyuk’s minimums, those receivers went 12-3 over this number.

Jerick McKinnon OVER 34.5 Yards Receiving (-120 DraftKings)

  • He’s been averaging 44 yards per game since the team’s bye week (removing Week 18)… The Jaguars allowed the second-most receptions and yards receiving to opposing running backs. Running backs are averaging five targets and four receptions per game against the Jaguars.

Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion OVER 38.5 Yards (-115 DraftKings)

  • He has the most completions of this long in the NFL… What I love most about this: 9-2 in the playoffs, with the two games he didn’t have a pass this long being his first career playoff game and the Super Bowl where his team only put up nine points… The Jaguars have the third-worst pass DVOA in the NFL.
Analysis

Zay Jones Worth DFS Start in Tough Matchup With Chargers

Despite the great coverage provided by the Chargers’ defensive backs, such as Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis, Jaguars receivers have a chance to be worth a sneaky play in DFS. Zay Jones specifically may benefit from Christian Kirk and Evan Engram being the focus, Jordan Vanek and Greg Jennings explain.

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