Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup

Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup
Welcome to the NFL playoffs recap series. Each week, The 33rd Team’s Nic Bodiford will break down the results of the most recent playoff round, offering thoughts for NFL fans, fantasy football players and sports bettors. This article will provide you with important stats from the past weekend for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup and […]

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DFS

Previewing the Conference Championship DFS Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.

For the full breakdown of coverage analysis, click the link below!

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/dfs/defensive-coverage-breakdown-for-every-conference-championship-team/

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/ 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is not coming in popular with that ankle injury
  • In 2019, he had a high ankle sprain in Week 1 on the opposite foot, and in the next six weeks on the injury report averaged 300.3 yards passing and two passing touchdowns
  • The Cincinnati Bengals will likely play Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a high rate; Mahomes ranked ninth in yards per attempt amongst QBs with at least 100 snaps against it
  • Pair Mahomes with two pass-catchers in every build; for large field tournaments, three can be viable

Jalen Hurts

  • The San Francisco 49ers will play a lot of zone coverage, and Jalen Hurts ranked third in yards per attempt against zone amongst QBs with 100 snaps against it
  • Hurts is the only QB on the slate with an ability to run, and I expect him to use his legs against this 49ers defense
  • The game script can go either way, and I believe we will see a big game from Hurts
  • Hurts is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and I am willing to eat the chalk

Joe Burrow

  • The Kansas City Chiefs will run a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 2 coverage against Burrow
  • Joe Burrow averages 8.6 yards per attempt and a 70.4% completion percentage against these two coverages
  • Against the Chiefs, Burrow led seven drives of at least eight plays. Five of his drives lasted four minutes of game time, and they will likely attempt to do that again
  • The ceiling game for Burrow comes down to the offensive line holding up and his ability to continue attempting quick yardage throws
  • Burrow is ranked third amongst QBs, and I will be underweight compared to the field

Brock Purdy

  • I will not be playing Brock Purdy this weekend; the pricing doesn’t generate enough of an advantage for paying down, and I don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

  • The 49ers have the advantage in the run game, and Christian McCaffrey is chalk I am willing to buy into
  • McCaffrey has an injury to monitor, but Shanahan knows he has to dial up the run game for his rookie quarterback on the road
  • The Eagles have given up over 100 yards rushing in six straight weeks
  • The trenches tool gives the 49ers a significant advantage in the run game
  • If you are not playing McCaffrey, I recommend getting to Elijah Mitchell

Joe Mixon

  • Slow, methodical drives will lead to Joe Mixon rushing attempts 
  • Mixon did not play in the first matchup. Samaje Perine ran for 106 yards and had six receptions for 49 yards
  • Mixon is a target for Burrow out of the backfield and will get usage near the red zone
  • I don’t believe Mixon is a must-have, but the slate of RBs is weak, and it won’t take a big game to be in the optimal build

Jerick McKinnon

  • Jerick McKinnon is the Chiefs running back I want because of his ability to pass protect. Isiah Pacheco will out-carry him, but McKinnon will make it up in the passing game
  • McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, and I believe that was because of the Mahomes’ injury
  • McKinnon is projected to be more popular than Pacheco

Miles Sanders

  • I will not be getting Miles Sanders; I think the Eagles throw a lot more than run, and near the red zone, it will be Hurts

Elijah Mitchell

  • McCaffrey is nursing an injury, and so is Mitchell, but I expect him to get enough carries to be viable
  • Mitchell is my preferred punt play at running back because I expect the 49ers to be run-heavy

Samaje Perine

  • Perine played extremely well against the Chiefs and has played over 40% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks
  • The only problem with Perine is he is more popular than Mitchell, and Mitchell will likely see more touches

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase

  • The most popular wide receiver on the entire slate, and it’s for a good reason
  • Ja’Marr Chase averages 139 yards against the Chiefs and has four touchdowns in three games
  • This season, he came off an injury and had seven receptions for 97 yards in that game, and whenever they saw Cover 1, it was an easy play for him to make
  • If the Chiefs can play Cover 2 for most of the game, I don’t believe he will have a big game to pay off the price. If they get the lead and force them into Cover 1, the explosive play is just waiting to happen

A.J. Brown

  • The 49ers’ corners can be beaten on the outside, and A.J. Brown will be able to out-physical them the way we saw DK Metcalf do in the wild-card round
  • If the 49ers attempt to play more Cover 3 coverage, Brown will be the player to have, but in Cover 4, Smith has been the preferred option
  • Crossing routes have hurt the 49ers this season, and Brown has 19% of his targets on these routes

DeVonta Smith

  • DeVonta Smith has been the go-to for the Eagles against Cover 4, and in games where the 49ers will have the lead or be in a one-score game, they will play plenty of that coverage
  • Smith has had eight targets in every game since Week 10, and I don’t think he will be under that number in this one
  • Brown has the highest ceiling, but Smith can have a big game

 

Deebo Samuel

  • I don’t trust Purdy enough to make plays down the field against a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. Deebo Samuel has not been getting much usage in the ground game to compensate for that

Tee Higgins

  • Burrow spreads the ball against Cover 2 coverage, and I think that style of play will limit the pass-catching group
  • Tee Higgins is priced in a spot where he will be popular, but it is chalk I am willing to go to because he has a high ceiling
  • In Cover 1, I expect Chase to be the main focus for this defense, and they will try to trust their corners on an island vs. Higgins

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster is not great against man coverage. However, he will have the opportunity to run routes one on one with Eli Apple, and can win in that matchup

Brandon Aiyuk

  • The Eagles’ safeties stay over the middle of the field, and James Bradberry gets beat in man situations down the sidelines
  • The only concern I have for Brandon Aiyuk is Purdy’s ability to make the throw, but out of the 49ers’ pass-catchers, he is my preferred option

Tyler Boyd

  • Tyler Boyd led the team in yards against Cover 2 coverage and is someone Burrow likes to target
  • In Burrow stacks, I will get plenty of exposure to Boyd

Kadarius Toney

  • Kadarius Toney is the most explosive player after the catch for the Chiefs, and I believe he is key to their offense performance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • The Bengals will play man-to-man coverage and bring pressure; the deep play will be there for the Chiefs’ pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quez Watkins

  • Quez Watkins is my favorite option under $4,000, and I believe he will have the opportunity to have a big play touchdown in the game

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce

  • Travis Kelce will get plenty of work in this game, and you shouldn’t be concerned about what he can do
  • The Bengals have a great scheme, but the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is too great

George Kittle

  • George Kittle scares me off because of his price and because he might be needed a lot more in pass protection and blocking in the run game
  • Kittle has a defensive scheme he can play well against, but like the wide receivers, I am not sure that Purdy can get the job done

Dallas Goedert

  • The 49ers have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFL, but they will have plenty to deal with against this Eagles’ run game and wide receiver room
  • Dallas Goedert is way too cheap on DraftKings, and is a strong play on the slate

Hayden Hurst

  • Like the quarterback position this weekend, I don’t think Hayden Hurst can keep pace with the top portion of the tight end room

Defense/Special Teams

49ers

  • The 49ers are viable, and I will be loading up those builds with the Chiefs-Bengals game

Eagles

  • The safest defense on the slate is the Eagles’; they are at home and going up against a rookie quarterback
  • I would correlate them with Hurts’ stacks because you want them to play with the lead and get after Purdy

Chiefs

  • Their defensive line is very motivated, and I am not buying into how well the Bengals’ offensive line played against the Bills
  • Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker, and I will be banking on him in this matchup

Bengals

  • Lou Anarumo has slowed this team down and confused them in coverages
  • They are the cheapest defense on the slate against a limited Patrick Mahomes

 

Favorite Stacks

  • QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Quez Watkins
    • Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey
  • QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Travis Kelce
    • Runback: WR Ja’Marr Chase
  • QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd
    • Runback: WR Kadarius Toney

Favorite Play

Quez Watkins

Favorite Fade

Deebo Samuel

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Patrick Mahomes QB KC vs CIN $7,600 $8,500 24.5
Jalen Hurts QB PHI vs SF $7,200 $9,200 24.25
Joe Burrow QB CIN @ KC $6,800 $8,300 23.5
Christian McCaffrey RB SF @ PHI $8,000 $9,000 22.25
Joe Mixon RB CIN @ KC $6,500 $8,100 23.5
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs CIN $5,400 $6,500 24.5
Eli Mitchell RB SF @ PHI $4,900 $5,600 22.25
Samaje Perine RB CIN @ KC $4,500 $5,300 23.5
JaMarr Chase WR CIN @ KC $7,600 $8,600 23.5
A.J. Brown WR PHI vs SF $7,000 $8,000 24.25
DeVonta Smith WR PHI vs SF $6,800 $7,700 24.25
Deebo Samuel WR SF @ PHI $5,700 $7,000 22.25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ KC $5,400 $6,700 23.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC vs CIN $4,700 $6,100 24.5
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF @ PHI $4,400 $6,000 22.25
Tyler Boyd WR CIN @ KC $3,800 $5,300 23.5
Kadarius Toney WR KC vs CIN $3,700 $5,600 24.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC vs CIN $3,600 $5,100 24.5
Quez Watkins WR PHI vs SF $3,100 $4,800 24.25
Travis Kelce TE KC vs CIN $7,800 $8,500 24.5
George Kittle TE SF @ PHI $5,200 $6,800 22.25
Dallas Goedert TE PHI vs SF $4,100 $6,400 24.25
49ers DST SF @ PHI $3,000 $4,100 24.25
Eagles DST PHI vs SF $2,800 $4,600 22.25
Chiefs DST KC vs CIN $2,500 $4,200 23.5
Bengals DST CIN @ KC $2,300 $4,000 24.5

WATCH: Finding a DFS Big Play Option From 49ers

Betting

NFL Divisional Round Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bengals vs. Bills

Bengals (12-4) at Bills (13-3)

Opening Spread: Bills -4

Opening Game Total: 50

Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Bengals (23)

Weather: Outdoors, chance of snow

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Bills -4
  • This line has moved to Bills -5.5
  • This total opened at 50-points
  • This total has moved to 50.5-points

Notable Injuries

Bills: Questionable: DT DaQuan Jones, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Poyer

Bengals: Out: RT La’el Collins. Questionable: LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa

Bills Offense vs. the Bengals Defense

I have the Bills’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. As our Maxx Forde recently pointed out, Josh Allen’s skillset is an asset for the Bills’ offensive line in both phases. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is very strong in the run game. The Bills’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in pass protection, while the Bengals’ defensive front has a moderate advantage in the run game.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bills are 8-8 against the spread this season
  • The Bills are 6-10 on overs this season
  • Josh Allen is 43-29-4 against the spread in his career
  • Josh Allen is 32-42-2 on overs in his career
  • Sean McDermott is 53-39-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Sean McDermott is 43-52-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Bills Offense

  • The Bills scored 28.4 points per game, good for second in the league
  • Buffalo is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing
  • The Bills are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Josh Allen finished the season with 762 yards rushing, which is third among quarterbacks
  • Devin Singletary finished the season with 819 yards rushing, which was 26th in the league
  • James Cook has seen sporadic usage throughout the year, but he had 12 carries to Devin Singletary’s 10 last week against Miami
  • Stefon Diggs finished the season fourth in receptions (108), fifth in yards receiving (1,429), fourth in receiving touchdowns (11), 14th in target share (27.6%), and 18th in air yards share (34.3%)
  • Gabriel Davis finished the season with 48 receptions for 836 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 17.9% target share and a 30.5% air yards share
  • Isaiah McKenzie has only breached 50 yards receiving in two of his 15 games this season
  • Dawson Knox finished the year with 48 receptions for 517 yards receiving and six touchdowns with a 12.7% target share and a 10.3% air yards share
  • Knox has a receiving touchdown in each of his last five games
  • Per TruMedia, Stefon Diggs has played 545 snaps on the perimeter and 249 in the slot
  • Gabe Davis has played 746 snaps on the perimeter and 109 in the slot
  • Isaiah McKenzie has played 139 snaps on the perimeter and 385 in the slot
  • Dawson Knox has played 395 snaps as an in-line tight end, 81 on the perimeter, and 263 in the slot 

Bengals Defense

  • The Bengals allowed 20.1 points per game, which is sixth in the league
  • Cincinnati is 29th in the league in sacks, tenth in forced fumbles, and 18th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Bengals allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Cincinnati gave up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Cincinnati gave up the ninth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
  • The Bengals allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Bengals allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot 

 

Bengals Offense vs. the Bills Defense

Barring a miracle, the Bengals will be down both their opening-day offensive tackles and their right guard. At full strength, the Bengals’ offensive line worked its way up to a league-average unit, but with these injuries, they are a below-average group entering this contest. At full strength, the Bills have a borderline top-five defensive front. Without Von Miller and A.J. Epenesa, the Bills have more of a league-average defensive front. Given all of the injuries in this trench matchup, Buffalo has a moderate to significant advantage in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bengals are 12-4 against the spread this season
  • The Bengals are 6-9-1 on overs this season
  • Joe Burrow is 27-15 against the spread in his career
  • Joe Burrow is 20-20-2 on overs in his career
  • Zac Taylor is 38-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Zac Taylor is 29-34-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Bengals Offense

  • The Bengals scored 26.1 points per game, good for seventh in the league
  • Cincinnati is third in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing
  • The Bengals are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Joe Mixon finished the season 27th in yards rushing with 814, and he’s sixth among running backs in yards receiving with 441
  • Samaje Perine is 21st among running backs in yards receiving
  • In 12 games, Ja’Marr Chase finished with 87 receptions for 1,046 yards receiving and nine touchdowns with a 29.3% target share and a 39.1% air yards share
  • Tee Higgins finished with 74 receptions for 1,029 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with an 18.4% target share and a 28.5% air yards share
  • Tyler Boyd finished with 58 receptions for 762 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 13.7% target share and a 17.8% air yards share
  • In 13 games, Hayden Hurst finished with 52 receptions for 414 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 14.2% target share and a 9.7% air yards share
  • Per TruMedia, Ja’Marr Chase has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 154 in the slot
  • Tee Higgins has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 132 in the slot
  • Tyler Boyd has played 123 snaps on the perimeter and 633 in the slot

Bills Defense

  • The Bills allowed 17.9 points per game, which is second in the league
  • Buffalo is 14th in the league in sacks, 22nd in forced fumbles, and fourth in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Bills allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Buffalo gave up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Buffalo gave up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
  • The Bills allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

This Is What You’re Betting On in Bengals vs. Bills

The Week 17 matchup between these two teams was canceled due to Damar Hamlin’s health crisis. Including last week’s victory over Miami, the Bills have won their last eight games. Including last week’s win over the Ravens, Cincinnati has won its last nine games.

If You’re Betting on the Bills

I’d argue that no team relies more on their quarterback than the Bills on Josh Allen. Outside of Stefon Diggs, Allen’s supporting cast on offense is very average. Like with any Bills bet, you must build that bet around Allen carrying this offense where they at least meet expectations.

The most apparent matchup advantage that the Bills have in this contest is their injury-reduced defensive front against the Bengals injury-ravaged offensive line. If the Bills are to win by enough distance to cover this now -5.5 spread, Buffalo’s ability to exploit Cincinnati’s injured offensive line is the clearest path to that outcome. That’s still possible without Von Miller, but it’s much less of a slam dunk than if Miller was available. If Joe Burrow spends most of his Sunday in a muddy pocket, that will make the tall task of mitigating the Bengals’ elite skill group far more manageable for the Bills.

 

You have two core concerns as a Bills bettor. The first is that Joe Burrow plays well despite the limitations of his injured offensive line. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last season with a below-average offensive line, so that outcome is certainly possible. The second is that Buffalo’s offense is one-dimensional, where that group effectively goes as far as Josh Allen takes it. Surviving a few turnovers against Skylar Thompson’s Dolphins is not the same circumstance as giving Joe Burrow a few more drives. If Buffalo is going to win this game, and cover, Allen will need to limit his turnovers.

If You’re Betting on the Bengals

Any Bengals bet is built around Joe Burrow and his elite skill group. The Bengals have shown over the last two years they can beat anyone. Entering this game, however, they will almost certainly be down both offensive tackles and their right guard. One of my longstanding football tenants is that you can play effective offense with one liability at offensive tackle, but it becomes much more problematic when you have two. You can game plan around one unreliable offensive tackle because you can give them consistent help in various ways. You can’t really do that with two. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl against the Buccaneers a few years ago is a primary example of what can happen to an elite offense when it loses both of its offensive tackles. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow’s offense is significantly hampered by their injury-reduced offensive line.

No lead is safe when Josh Allen is the opposing quarterback. Buffalo is among the most pass-centric teams in the league, which devalues the Bengals’ high-performing run defense to a degree. We can reasonably expect Cincinnati to focus its game plan on Stefon Diggs, forcing Allen to beat it with his role players. The best-case scenario for Cincinnati is limiting Diggs while forcing a couple of turnovers.

Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow spends this contest under siege behind Cincinnati’s injury-reduced offensive line. Your second-biggest concern is that Josh Allen’s turnover issues disappear and the Bills’ offense plays one of its cleanest games of the season. If both of those conditions happen, that’s the primary path to the Bills winning this game with some distance.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 20

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record

TS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 60-40

WATCH: Betting Divisional Round with Tank Williams

 

Betting

NFL Wild Card Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Ravens vs. Bengals

Ravens (10-7) at Bengals (12-4)

Opening Spread: Bengals -6.5

Opening Game Total: 43.5

Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25) Ravens (18.5)

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Bengals -6.5
  • This line has moved to Bengals -8.5
  • This total opened at 43.5-points
  • This total has moved to 42.5-points

Notable Injuries

Bengals: Out: RG Alex Cappa, RT La’el Collins. Questionable: WR Tee Higgins, CB Cam Taylor-Britt

Ravens: Questionable: QB Lamar Jackson, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Gus Edwards, CB Marcus Peters, CB Marlon Humphrey.

Bengals Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Bengals’ offensive line was a below-average unit early in the year that gradually turned into a rock-solid, league-average unit. However, injuries at right guard and right tackle have pushed this group back into below-average territory. I have the Ravens’ defensive front tiered toward the back end of league average. From a macro sense, the Ravens’ defensive front has a mild advantage in the trenches, but the Bengals’ injury-reduced offensive line will be put to the test when the Ravens bring pressure.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bengals are 12-4 against the spread this season
  • Cincinnati is 6-9-1 on overs this season
  • Joe Burrow is 27-15 against the spread in his career
  • Burrow is 20-20-2 on overs in his career
  • Zac Taylor is 38-27 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
  • Taylor is 29-34-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career

Bengals Offense

  • Cincinnati scores 26.1 points per game, good for seventh in the league
  • The Bengals are third in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing
  • Cincinnati passes on 66% of plays and runs on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Joe Mixon finished the season 27th in yards rushing with 814, and he’s sixth among running backs in yards receiving with 441
  • Samaje Perine is 21st among running backs in yards receiving
  • In 12 games, Ja’Marr Chase finished with 87 receptions for 1,046 yards receiving and nine touchdowns with a 29.3% target share and a 39.1% air yards share
  • Tee Higgins finished with 74 receptions for 1,029 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with an 18.4% target share and a 28.5% air yards share
  • Tyler Boyd finished with 58 receptions for 762 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 13.7% target share and a 17.8% air yards share
  • In 13 games, Hayden Hurst finished with 52 receptions for 414 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 14.2% target share and a 9.7% air yards share
  • Per TruMedia, Chase has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 154 in the slot
  • Higgins has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 132 in the slot
  • Boyd has played 123 snaps on the perimeter and 633 in the slot

 

Ravens Defense

  • Baltimore has allowed 18.5 points per game, which is third in the league
  • The Ravens are fifth in the league in sacks, tied for 10th in forced fumbles and 12th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Ravens allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Baltimore gave up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • The Ravens allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
  • Baltimore gave up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season 

Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense

I have the Ravens tiered as a top-10 offensive line. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is a top-10 unit against the run. The Ravens’ offensive line has a significant advantage in pass protection, but this trench matchup is more of a draw in the run game.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Ravens are 8-9 against the spread this season
  • Baltimore is 5-12 on overs this season
  • Anthony Brown is 0-1 against the spread in his career
  • Brown is 1-0 on overs in his career
  • John Harbaugh is 121-112-9 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
  • Harbaugh is 115-126-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career

Ravens Offense

  • Baltimore scores 20.6 points per game, which is 19th in the league
  • The Ravens are 30th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing
  • Baltimore passes on 54% of plays and runs on 46% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Lamar Jackson, reportedly, has an uphill battle to play while Tyler Huntley had a limited practice on Wednesday
  • If Jackson and Huntley both miss this contest, Brown will likely start his second consecutive game against the Bengals
  • Per the Edge, J.K. Dobbins has at least 12 carries in each of his last four games while breaching 90 yards rushing in three of those contests
  • Gus Edwards has double-digit carries in two of those four games
  • Demarcus Robinson has six or more targets in six of his last 10 games while breaching 50 yards receiving three times during that span
  • Mark Andrews is third among tight ends in receptions (73), third in yards receiving (847), seventh in receiving touchdowns (5), the leader in target share (28.1%) and second in air yards share (33.8%)
  • Per TruMedia, Robinson has played 572 snaps on the perimeter and 34 in the slot
  • Andrews has played 179 snaps as an inline tight end, 157 on the perimeter and 402 in the slot

Bengals Defense

  • Cincinnati has 20.1 points per game, which is sixth in the league
  • The Bengals are 29th in the league in sacks, tied for 10th in forced fumbles and 18th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, Cincinnati has allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • The Bengals have given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Cincinnati has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
  • The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot 

 

This Is What You’re Betting On

In Week 5, the Ravens beat the Bengals 19-17 on Sunday night in Baltimore. The Bengals beat the Ravens’ reserve offense, but Baltimore’s defensive starters, 27-16 in the regular season finale last week. The Bengals finished the season with eight straight wins. The injury-reduced Ravens limped into the playoffs, going 4-4 since their Week 10 bye.

Baltimore slipped by Carolina, Denver, Pittsburgh and Atlanta for those four wins in low-scoring, highly competitive games. Jackson hasn’t played since Dec. 4 against the Broncos. Jackson only threw four passes against the Broncos, which means Baltimore went 3-3 without Jackson to close the season.

If You’re Betting on the Bengals

Any bet on the Bengals is built around Burrow and his dynamic skill group. If you just glance at the box score of last week’s game, you’d think Cincinnati hung 27 points on the Ravens’ starting defense. That wasn’t the case. The Bengals forced four turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown last week. If you’re betting on the Bengals, you are betting on their offense to have a better performance this week than last week.

The great mystery of this game is the Ravens could conceivably start one of three quarterbacks. All signs are pointing toward Jackson missing being out. Will it be Huntley or Brown this week? If Cincinnati gets Brown again, the Bengals’ defense could enjoy another multi-turnover day. If Huntley gets the start, the Ravens’ offense is a more stable unit. My primary concern as a Bengals bettor is Cincinnati’s offense comes in just under their 25-point team total, while Huntley’s Ravens keep the game relatively competitive.

If You’re Betting on the Ravens

We should expect Jackson to miss this contest given the reports and line movement related to this game. Assuming Jackson remains sidelined, this game is primarily on the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore played their defensive starters last week, and they played well despite Baltimore’s offense turning the ball over four times. Baltimore held the Bengals to 17 points earlier in the year as well. The Ravens’ defense’s best path to exceeding expectations is their secondary holding up when they blitz the right side of the Bengals’ injury-ravaged offensive line. If Baltimore can consistently pressure Burrow, they can keep this game close.

While the requirement of limiting Burrow’s offense is a concern, your biggest worry as a Ravens’ bettor is related to their offense. The Ravens haven’t breached 20 points since Week 12, which is the last full game Jackson played. A spike game out of Huntley’s offense isn’t entirely off the table, but that is an outlier outcome we shouldn’t count on. What you can build a Ravens bet around is a strong defensive effort while Huntley’s offense plays a turnover-free game that keeps a cover within striking distance. The worst-case scenario for Baltimore is Burrow’s offense comes out hot and whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens simply can’t keep up.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24 Ravens 16

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 57-40

WATCH: Betting the NFL Playoff Edition

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