Analysis

9/9/23

11 min read

2023 NFL Week 1 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis

By Jordan Vanek

If you are new to DFS, check out The 33rd Team's introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.

Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks we will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, feel free to ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.

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Double Stacks

Jim Schwartz taking over as the Cleveland Browns' defensive coordinator means they'll be more aggressive, favoring single-high coverages. Burrow excels against this, averaging more than nine yards per attempt. Chase is the key to Burrow's explosiveness, making him my top choice over Tee Higgins. While Higgins and Tyler Boyd are still good options, it's easier to include Smith as a tight end in my lineup due to the slate's weaknesses.

Chubb's a strong slate-breaker this week due to scarce workhorse running backs, and he's not a popular choice. He's thrived against Cincinnati throughout his career and isn’t expected to have a split in touches. Pair him with Cooper because there’s a real chance that this game will shoot out. If that becomes the case, you are looking at a unique lineup and one that could take down the big slate.

The Tennessee Titans struggled against deep passes last season, making this a favorable matchup for Carr, who loves airing it out. Among the Saints' pass catchers, focus on Olave and Johnson. Olave looks like the primary receiver and could easily rack up 150-plus receiving yards. Johnson, a red zone threat at tight end, complements Carr's touchdown potential, and his position is a weak spot on the slate.

I'm keen on a double runback strategy with Henry and Burks for a potential shootout in the Titans game. The dome environment and a well-rested Henry suggest he'll be a focal point, setting up play-action deep passes to Burks. Consider playing just one or mini-stacking either of these two stacks; these games are my top picks on the slate.

Single Stacks

The Patriots lean heavily on single high coverage, setting up Brown as their go-to target, a connection that proved effective last season. Brown averaged 3.33 yards per route run against this look and had over a 35 percent target share. Last season, the New England Patriots had issues defending Lamar Jackson as a runner. In this matchup, I believe Hurts can get a lot of yards on the ground.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Eagles show vulnerability in their linebacker corps and run defense. Stevenson, the best player for the Patriots, is versatile as a runner and receiver. He's likely to see significant action in this game, especially if I'm stacking with Hurts. Stevenson's contributions will be crucial for New England's success in reaching the end zone.

Richardson stands out as a budget-friendly quarterback with rushing potential, and there isn't another quarterback under $6,000 on DraftKings offering a similar skill set. While Trevor Lawrence has been an option for me, it hinges on the Indianapolis Colts scoring well. Without Jonathan Taylor, Richardson is the man to do that at a cheaper cost. To complement him, look at Pierce as a pass-catching option. Priced below $4,000, he provides a cost-effective alternative to popular choices and should see valuable downfield targets.

Ridley faces a rookie or inexperienced second-year cornerback, which should work in his favor. The Colts defense is strongest over the middle, but Ridley will be stationed on the perimeter. As a new weapon for Lawrence, anticipate Ridley receiving significant targets in the season opener, kickstarting the offense. Combining Ridley with Evan Engram or Travis Etienne in this matchup is a viable strategy, but for now, I am sticking to just one runback.

Mini-Stacks

Without Christian Watson, the Green Bay Packers' standout player is Jones, who's poised for a significant workload as both a pass-catcher and rusher. With the Packers expected to dominate the trenches, they'll rely heavily on Jones in this matchup. This approach also serves as an alternative to the popular tight end Luke Musgrave, with the hope that Jones finds the end zone.

When a team trades for the likes of Moore, they typically aim to feature him early in the season. Despite the Bears' limited passing volume, most of it should flow through Moore in this game. I anticipate multiple screens and short throws from Fields to get Moore involved right from the start.

Robinson and Antonio Gibson offer potential in this matchup, but my expectation is for Robinson to outperform in terms of scoring. While it's a popular choice, this stack is affordable and worth consideration. The team boasts a strong defensive line, and given the Arizona Cardinals' roster, they won't be scoring many points in this game.

The Seattle Seahawks have multiple paths to victory against the Los Angeles Rams, and in this game, they should integrate their rookie players. That is where I found myself playing Charbonnet; he seems poised to take on the goal-line role over Kenneth Walker, especially with Walker showing up on the injury report. Expect enough opportunities for Charbonnet to justify his price tag.

Atwell brings speed to the Rams' offense, which could be the key to creating separation against the Seahawks' defense. Sean McVay might draw inspiration from how the Miami Dolphins utilized their speedy wide receivers. With Matthew Stafford's arm strength, the Rams can capitalize on deep shots to Atwell. While there's no replacing Cooper Kupp, Atwell, at just $3,000, provides excellent value.

Mims is currently a highly rostered wide receiver on the slate, but the potential return of Jerry Jeudy could reduce his popularity and increase his appeal. I will pair Mims with Mayer to differentiate my lineups from the contests.

Vance Joseph's defenses have consistently faced challenges against tight ends over the years, and Jimmy Garoppolo is known for spreading the ball around. While Mayer might be a rookie at the tight end position, I have confidence in his role as a reliable safety blanket for Garoppolo and at the price.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans

One-Offs

Brian Flores is set to deploy a lot of single safety coverages and blitz against Baker Mayfield, making deep shots a potential route to success. While likely to fly under the radar, Evans presents an opportunity to capitalize on multiple deep pass plays against the Vikings’ defense.

DeMeco Ryans likely will employ a nickel package with three safeties, potentially placing a safety on Flowers when he lines up in the slot. This matchup appears favorable, so expect Lamar Jackson to target Flowers consistently. While the Baltimore Ravens are likely to distribute the ball widely, Flowers is a particularly intriguing player in this context. Flowers is an excellent pivot choice, especially in a slate where Isaiah Likely is expected to be popular due to the potential absence of Mark Andrews.

Defenses

  • Seahawks

The Seahawks have various avenues to defeat the Rams, and their defense is a significant factor. With Stafford missing his primary target, the Rams' offense might not perform at its best. While I typically don't splurge on defense, the Seahawks are an attractive and unconventional choice in this matchup.

  • Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have shown improvement on the defensive front, and the Carolina Panthers lack substantial offensive weapons. In this scenario, a rookie quarterback on the road faces a defense that doesn’t have a lot of film to study. While Bryce Young is expected to develop over the season, this matchup doesn't appear favorable.

  • Chargers

The Dolphins' offensive line, especially without Terron Armstead, will struggle against the Los Angeles Chargers' top-tier edge rushing duo. Given the popularity of this game's offense, a defensive touchdown could be an effective way to pivot away from the offensive focus and gain an edge.

  • Steelers

The San Francisco 49ers' offensive line is a big concern, and the Pittsburgh Steelers' defensive line is the best in football. QB Brock Purdy hasn’t played in this situation before, and the Steelers have the chance to score with their talent.

  • Commanders

Big favorites with a great defensive line against a bad offensive line is a perfect play in DFS, but many people will be playing them. I don’t mind playing them with some low-rostered plays, but there are better options.

  • Packers

The Packers are the ultimate pivot option off of the Washington Commanders. They have a good defense and are playing against an offensive line with many question marks. QB Justin Fields is a great player but will take bad sacks, and the Bears turned the ball over in 17 of 18 games in 2022.

  • Dolphins

Vic Fangio has the opportunity to work with one of the most talented defenses he's had, making the Dolphins an intriguing contrarian option in lineups that don't feature any Chargers. While pairing them with Mostert is viable, it's important to note that Mostert's workload might not be extensive unless Salvon Ahmed and De'Von Achane are inactive.

  • Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders possess a standout pass rusher, and there's a possibility that QB Russell Wilson might not be better with Sean Payton as his coach. If these factors align, the Raiders, priced near the minimum, become an enticing and potentially excellent choice.

Player Pool

Pos Name Team OPP DK Salary FD Salary
QB Jalen Hurts PHI NE $7,800 $9,000
QB Joe Burrow CIN CLE $7,100 $7,900
QB Anthony Richardson IND JAX $5,600 $6,700
QB Derek Carr NO TEN $5,300 $7,000
RB Nick Chubb CLE CIN $8,200 $8,600
RB Bijan Robinson ATL CAR $8,000 $7,800
RB Derrick Henry TEN NO $7,800 $8,500
RB Rhamondre Stevenson NE PHI $7,000 $7,000
RB Travis Etienne Jr. JAX IND $6,900 $7,700
RB Joe Mixon CIN CLE $6,800 $7,500
RB Aaron Jones GB CHI $6,300 $7,200
RB Cam Akers LA SEA $6,200 $6,600
RB D'Andre Swift PHI NE $5,400 $6,300
RB Raheem Mostert MIA LAC $5,400 $5,900
RB Khalil Herbert CHI GB $5,300 $6,100
RB Antonio Gibson WAS ARI $5,200 $5,800
RB Jamaal Williams NO TEN $5,100 $6,800
RB Brian Robinson Jr. WAS ARI $5,100 $6,400
RB Zach Charbonnet SEA LA $4,800 $4,800
RB Deon Jackson IND JAX $4,100 $5,600
RB Evan Hull IND JAX $4,000 $5,100
WR Justin Jefferson MIN TB $8,800 $9,500
WR Tyreek Hill MIA LAC $8,200 $8,800
WR Ja'Marr Chase CIN CLE $8,100 $8,500
WR A.J. Brown PHI NE $7,600 $8,100
WR DeVonta Smith PHI NE $7,200 $7,200
WR DK Metcalf SEA LA $7,000 $7,700
WR Tee Higgins CIN CLE $6,800 $7,400
WR Tyler Lockett SEA LA $6,700 $6,800
WR Calvin Ridley JAX IND $6,500 $7,000
WR Chris Olave NO TEN $6,500 $7,300
WR Mike Evans TB MIN $6,300 $6,500
WR Michael Pittman Jr. IND JAX $6,200 $6,600
WR DJ Moore CHI GB $6,100 $6,300
WR Amari Cooper CLE CIN $5,800 $6,700
WR Mike Williams LAC MIA $5,700 $7,100
WR Courtland Sutton DEN LV $5,200 $5,900
WR Michael Thomas NO TEN $5,100 $6,000
WR Treylon Burks TEN NO $5,000 $5,700
WR Jahan Dotson WAS ARI $5,000 $6,100
WR Van Jefferson LA SEA $4,700 $5,500
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE CIN $4,300 $5,900
WR Tyler Boyd CIN CLE $4,100 $5,400
WR Zay Flowers BAL HOU $4,000 $5,500
WR Elijah Moore CLE CIN $3,800 $5,700
WR Alec Pierce IND JAX $3,800 $5,200
WR Rashid Shaheed NO TEN $3,700 $5,400
WR Jonathan Mingo CAR ATL $3,200 $4,500
WR Marvin Mims Jr. DEN LV $3,000 $4,700
WR Jayden Reed GB CHI $3,000 $5,000
WR Tutu Atwell LA SEA $3,000 $5,000
TE Dallas Goedert PHI NE $5,000 $6,400
TE Tyler Higbee LA SEA $4,800 $5,300
TE Evan Engram JAX IND $4,700 $5,800
TE Gerald Everett LAC MIA $4,300 $5,500
TE David Njoku CLE CIN $4,200 $5,600
TE Pat Freiermuth PIT SF $4,100 $5,700
TE Juwan Johnson NO TEN $3,900 $5,100
TE Irv Smith Jr. CIN CLE $3,600 $4,900
TE Hunter Henry NE PHI $3,500 $5,100
TE Isaiah Likely  BAL HOU $3,000 $4,700
TE Luke Musgrave GB CHI $2,900 $4,500
TE Michael Mayer LV DEN $2,800 $4,700
DST Seahawks SEA LA $3,300 $4,600
DST Falcons ATL CAR $3,200 $3,900
DST Chargers LAC MIA $3,100 $3,600
DST Steelers PIT SF $3,000 $4,300
DST Commanders WAS ARI $2,800 $3,900
DST Packers GB CHI $2,800 $4,500
DST Dolphins MIA LAC $2,500 $3,800
DST Raiders LV DEN $2,300 $3,500

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Tags: A.J. Brown, Aaron Jones, Alec Pierce See More

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

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