Analysis
11/14/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Bengals (5-4) at Ravens (7-3)
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Total: 46
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this game hasn’t changed from Ravens -3.5, but the total has moved from 43.5 up to 46 points.
Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Baltimore Ravens are fifth in the league in points per game and 20th in passing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has been efficient as a passer, but he’s only eclipsed 240 passing yards in one game this season — he’s been held below 200 yards in four games. The Bengals are giving up the eighth-most passing yards per game this year.
Baltimore’s passing game runs through Mark Andrews and rookie Zay Flowers. Flowers leads the Ravens in receptions (50), receiving yards (545) and target share (24.5 percent). Andrews is second on the team in receptions (43), receiving yards (521) and target share (21.2 percent), and he leads the team in receiving touchdowns with six.
Odell Beckham Jr. has at least four targets in six of his eight games this season, but he has only exceeded 50 receiving yards once as a Raven. Rashod Bateman’s single-game high this season is 36 receiving yards.
The Cincinnati Bengals are giving up the third-most rushing yards this season, and the Ravens lead the league in rushing yards per game. Most of that success can be attributed to Jackson because his dynamic athleticism creates opportunities for everyone on the offense. (He has 481 rushing yards with five rushing touchdowns.)
Gus Edwards has a slight lead over Jackson with 502 rushing yards and has at least 10 carries in all but two games. Rookie Keaton Mitchell has 172 rushing yards on 12 carries, all coming in the last two weeks. Expect Mitchell’s workload to grow given his recent success.
Bengals Offense vs. Ravens Defense
Joe Burrow opened the year with a calf injury that clearly hampered his early-season play, but he started to look more mobile in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. Since the Bengals’ Week 7 bye, Burrow has been all the way back in each of those three games.
Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in targets per game, and he’s eclipsed 100 receiving yards four times. Tee Higgins is unlikely to play Thursday, but Chase had more than 100 receiving yards in both games Higgins has missed this year. Also, Tyler Boyd had his first 100-yard game of the season last week while Higgins was sidelined.
Chase had 25 total targets in the games Higgins missed, while Boyd had 19; Trenton Irwin has 17 targets on the season, but 14 of those came in the games Higgins missed. TEs Drew Sample and Irv Smith have combined for 141 receiving yards on the season.
The Ravens’ defense has given up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game this year — but the unit has only faced two top-10 passing attacks this season. One of those was the Houston Texans on opening day.
Baltimore is giving up the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, but Joe Mixon has a bell cow role in Cincinnati. He has double-digit carries in every game he’s played this season, though he’s only exceeded 80 rushing yards twice, and has 33 targets on the season.
What You’re Betting On
The Ravens beat the Bengals 27-24 back in Week 2 in a game where Burrow’s mobility was still clearly limited by his calf injury. This isn’t quite a must-win game for the Bengals, but it’s close. Their path to winning the division gets narrow with another loss to Baltimore.
If you’re betting on the Ravens, you are building that bet around their premium defense and Jackson carrying their offense. Jackson can put the offense on his back against any opponent. While he’s been more of an efficient game manager this season, he can pour it on if needed.
If you’re betting on the Ravens, you’re expecting another strong outing from their defense. In the past two seasons, Baltimore has done a great job limiting Burrow’s passing attack. In 2021, Burrow threw for 941 yards and seven touchdowns in his two games against Baltimore.
In the past two seasons, he’s hovered just above 200 passing yards in his last four games against the Ravens. If you’re betting on the Bengals, you don’t quite need a massive spike game from Burrow, but you want more than he’s done against Baltimore recently.
Cincinnati’s defense has been mediocre this season. Ultimately, if you’re betting on the Bengals, you are betting on a highly motivated team and Burrow’s passing attack.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 23
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 26-24
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-18
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team and has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
