Analysis
10/14/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 6 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, including DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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Week 6 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence WR Calvin Ridley AND WR Christian Kirk/TE Evan Engram
- Runback: WR Josh Downs
The Indianapolis Colts are a top team at utilizing Cover 3 coverage, and Trevor Lawrence has thrived against it. In games where the Jacksonville Jaguars faced Cover 3 heavily, Lawrence averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley shines against Cover 3 defenses, with 4.6 yards per route run and a high target share. Stack Lawrence with Ridley and consider value options like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who average over 2.0 yards per route run against Cover 3.
Josh Downs is a top choice this week, with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. He's been targeted on 26.7 percent of his routes and excels against Cover 3, averaging 3.4 yards per route run.
- Stack: QB Jared Goff WR Amon-Ra St. Brown AND WR Jameson Williams/WR Josh Reynolds
- Stack: WR Mike Evans
Jared Goff has a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who often use Cover 3 coverage. Goff excels against Cover 3, and his top target is Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Buccaneers have given up over 100 receiving yards to three players this season, except when they faced an injured Derek Carr.
To maximize Goff's performance, pair him with two pass catchers. Sam LaPorta is uncertain due to a calf injury, so consider Jameson Williams, who runs many deep routes. Josh Reynolds is a safer option, but I believe the ceiling is with Williams.
Monitor Mike Evans' injury; if he's out, Chris Godwin is a key player. The Detroit Lions mainly use zone coverage, which suits Evans, ranked fifth in the NFL for yards against zone. If Evans is unavailable, Godwin is the next best option, getting plenty of targets against zone and averaging 2.02 yards per route run.
- Stack: QB Matthew Stafford WR Cooper Kupp WR Puka Nacua
The Los Angeles Rams are heavily favored at home by seven points, and I'm looking to invest in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua due to the excellent value they offer on this slate. The Arizona Cardinals primarily employ a zone-heavy defensive scheme, which plays perfectly into the hands of Kupp and Nacua, who excel in exploiting these zones.
Matthew Stafford has been airing it out this season, and it's worth noting that three quarterbacks have posted a touchdown rate of over five percent per pass attempt, underlining the Rams' potent aerial attack. Nacua boasts an impressive 33 percent target rate per route run against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which are the primary coverages the Cardinals utilize.
Meanwhile, Kupp, who maintains a target rate of 28 percent per route over the past two seasons, is an excellent route runner with an average of 2.8 yards per route run. In essence, the Rams' passing offense is one of the most formidable in the NFL, and I have high expectations for their performance in this game.
- Stack: QB Gardner Minshew WR Michael Pittman Jr. WR Josh Downs
- Runback: RB Travis Etienne AND WR Calvin Ridley
Minshew is my top budget-friendly quarterback choice this week, and I'm particularly excited about the potential for an explosive game environment. Michael Pittman Jr. and Downs stand out as the two players with the highest upside in this matchup, benefiting from a substantial target share with Minshew under center.
Regarding the running back situation, Travis Etienne takes the lead for the Jaguars. In games where Lawrence doesn't have a standout performance, Etienne often steps up, contributing with rushing touchdowns and valuable yards. Ridley is a dominant player against Cover 3 and is not nearly as popular as he should be.
Mini-Stacks
- Carolina at Miami
- TE Hayden Hurst RB Raheem Mostert/WR Jaylen Waddle
The Miami Dolphins struggle to defend slot tight ends. Hayden Hurst, the second most targeted by Bryce Young, is a great budget option at the position, given the expected negative game script.
The Carolina Panthers often double-cover top wide receivers like Tyreek Hill, which makes Jaylen Waddle a strong play this weekend. Despite his price, Waddle will have a significant workload. He could be an underutilized gem. Raheem Mostert is an obvious choice, especially with De'Von Achane out and the Panthers missing key defensive players. He's set for a promising game and is a solid fantasy pick.
- Seattle at Cincinnati
- RB Kenneth Walker III WR Tyler Boyd
The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled with their run defense this season, and Kenneth Walker III has played a significant role for the Seattle Seahawks. The Bengals have been vulnerable to explosive runs, and Walker is extremely explosive as a running back, making him a strong fantasy option.
Additionally, the Seahawks have shown vulnerabilities defending the slot, and Tyler Boyd excels in that position. Opting for Boyd over Ja'Marr Chase can provide salary relief and allow for investment in higher-performing players, enhancing your fantasy lineup.
One-Offs
- WR Brandon Aiyuk
The San Francisco 49ers will see single high coverages at the highest rate of any team on the slate. Brandon Aiyuk averages 5.04 yards per route against these coverages and gets targeted on 34 percent of his routes. Aiyuk is in for a big performance against the Cleveland Browns' defense.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | $6,500 | $7,600 |
| QB | Jared Goff | DET | TB | $6,400 | $7,800 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| QB | Gardner Minshew II | IND | JAX | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | CLE | $9,500 | $10,300 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | WAS | $7,200 | $7,600 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | IND | $7,100 | $7,700 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | LV | NE | $7,000 | $8,000 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | HOU | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | CIN | $6,700 | $8,400 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | ARI | $6,500 | $8,200 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | CAR | $6,400 | $8,500 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | CIN | SEA | $6,300 | $7,000 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | NYJ | $6,100 | $7,200 |
| RB | Alexander Mattison | MIN | CHI | $5,600 | $6,900 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | DET | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | CHI | MIN | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| RB | D'Onta Foreman | CHI | MIN | $4,400 | $6,000 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | CAR | $9,300 | $9,800 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | ARI | $9,000 | $8,700 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | SEA | $8,300 | $9,300 |
| WR | Davante Adams | LV | NE | $8,100 | $8,300 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | ARI | $8,000 | $7,900 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | NYJ | $7,800 | $8,200 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | TB | $7,700 | $7,800 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | CAR | $7,600 | $6,800 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | DET | $7,100 | $7,600 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | NYJ | $7,000 | $7,300 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | DET | $6,900 | $6,300 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | CIN | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | IND | $6,700 | $7,000 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | HOU | $6,600 | $7,100 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | MIN | $6,500 | $8,000 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | JAX | $6,300 | $6,500 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | CLE | $6,200 | $7,700 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | PHI | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | MIA | $5,900 | $7,400 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | CHI | $5,700 | $6,700 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | CIN | $5,700 | $4,500 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | IND | $5,400 | $6,600 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | ARI | $5,100 | $5,500 |
| WR | Tyler Boyd | CIN | SEA | $4,600 | $6,100 |
| WR | Josh Reynolds | DET | TB | $4,500 | $6,700 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | JAX | $4,100 | $5,600 |
| WR | Robert Woods | HOU | NO | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | DET | TB | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | ATL | $3,700 | $6,200 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | HOU | $3,700 | $5,400 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | CIN | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | TB | $3,600 | $5,500 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | CHI | $6,600 | $6,700 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | CLE | $5,000 | $5,900 |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | PHI | NYJ | $4,800 | $6,200 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | CHI | MIN | $4,600 | $6,100 |
| TE | Evan Engram | JAX | IND | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | LA | ARI | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | ARI | LA | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| TE | Logan Thomas | WAS | ATL | $3,500 | $5,400 |
| TE | Hayden Hurst | CAR | MIA | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| TE | Kylen Granson | IND | JAX | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| DST | Eagles | PHI | NYJ | $3,800 | $4,900 |
| DST | Falcons | ATL | WAS | $3,600 | $4,100 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | CAR | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| DST | Commanders | WAS | ATL | $3,100 | $4,000 |
| DST | Bengals | CIN | SEA | $2,900 | $4,200 |
| DST | Texans | HOU | NO | $2,900 | $3,700 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | LV | $2,600 | $3,600 |
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