The 33rd Team’s betting and DFS experts hand out advice for the AFC and NFC championships, including props, bets to take, matchups to watch and players to add to your lineups.
DFS
AFC Championship DFS: Which Bengals Pass Catcher to Take vs. Chiefs
An AFC Championship game featuring the Cincinnati and Kansas City offenses offers no shortage of exciting options for DFS players to pick from, and in a game that should be pass-happy, the Bengals’ Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase could both have good games vs. the Chiefs, and be strong options for anyone playing that game this weekend.
Other Jennings/Vanek Previews: Chiefs, Eagles
Defensive Coverage Breakdown for Every Conference Championship Team
DFS: Which 49ers Will Have Big Days in Conference Championship
With so many weapons on the 49ers side, it can be hard to pick which one will go off for DFS purposes. Jordan Vanek is leaning Brandon Aiyuk against James Bradberry, while Greg Jennings says George Kittle could excel vs. the Eagles linebackers.
Optimal DFS Plays For 2023 Two-Day Divisional Round Main Slate
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
This weekend’s main slate lasts two days, so late swapping will benefit those who utilize players from Sunday’s games. I have a Divisional Coverage primer that you should look at because this piece will reference a lot of data from that piece. There are many ways to get unique on this week’s main slate and leverage spots at certain price ranges. I will be looking to flip the script with some of my builds based on the popularity of the expensive quarterbacks.
We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found HERE.
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert
The week of rest couldn’t have been more important to any playoff team with Hurts’ shoulder injury. A fully healthy Jalen Hurts can put up big numbers against the Giants, and there’s a blueprint to put up big numbers on them. Dallas Goedert has to watch the film of T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews and be ready to win in man-coverage situations.
A.J. Brown is the No. 1 receiver in the NFL against man coverage. However, Martindale has his former Titans teammate in Adoree’ Jackson, and I think they will have a good game plan for this matchup. DeVonta Smith is also a top wide receiver against man coverage, and I think being looked at as a second option in this game will allow him to work freely. I don’t believe I want to run it back in this game because of how good this Eagles’ defense is and how the Giants can utilize multiple wide receivers.
Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones
Runback: TE Travis Kelce
The Jaguars-Chiefs game features the highest point total on the entire slate, and Trevor Lawrence isn’t projected to be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate. When Lawrence gets man coverage, who he targets has been relatively consistent week-to-week, and it’s Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Since Week 10, Lawrence saw a high man coverage rate against the Chiefs, Lions, Titans, and Cowboys. During that span of weeks, Kirk had a 33.3% target share, with Jones at 29.6%, and with the game flow, I believe it’s the spot for the Jaguars to find success. The Chiefs are one of three teams to give up 20 or more touchdowns to wide receivers this year, and these two wide receivers combine for a 55.8% target share.
Travis Kelce has had 90 yards receiving in six straight playoff matchups and has scored in five of the last six games. All of these team’s games planned to slow down Kelce and couldn’t find any success, and I don’t expect that to change here. The Chiefs have a wide receiver rotation that I don’t plan on trying to guess in tournaments because I think the number of players they utilize will limit the upside of breaking the slate with the value at wide receiver this week. Kadarius Toney is the one Chiefs wide receiver I would bet on, and if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated, I have no interest in this running back room.
Single Stacks
I’m not single stacking this week.
Mini-Stacks
WR Tee Higgins, WR Gabriel Davis
Greg Jennings believes we could see Tre’Davious White shadow with Ja’Marr Chase, and with three starting offensive linemen, I think Joe Burrow throws Tee Higgins’ way in contested coverage. Higgins has been the best player against Cover 3 coverage, and with the Bills’ struggles against the run, I think we see plenty of that coverage for Higgins to exploit.
Gabriel Davis will get Eli Apple in this matchup, and Stefon Diggs will deal with bracketed coverages. Davis has to win in his matchup against the Bills for this offense to find success and score points. Last weekend, Demarcus Robinson was able to win deep on Apple, and Davis will have plenty of film on the matchup to be able to replicate that double move.
RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR CeeDee Lamb
Christian McCaffrey is a chess piece that Dan Quinn has not seen Kyle Shanahan have on his board before, and he will need to get going if they want to slow down the pass rush. Mike Martz believes that the Cowboys are weak in their interior defensive line and that McCaffrey can exploit that area of the field.
Brandon Aiyuk is a lethal route runner and the 49ers’ pass catcher that can get the job done down the field against the Cowboys’ secondary. Aiyuk is the down-the-field threat with Brock Purdy, and I believe he will continue that trend in this matchup.
The Cowboys should be looking at the Davante Adams film against the 49ers and getting every bit of the route combinations he ran for CeeDee Lamb to get free against the 49ers. The 49ers’ weakest point is the slot, and Lamb will frequently align in that area. The 49ers’ primary coverages also bode well for Lamb because he has a high target rate against them, with Dak Prescott as the starter.
Divisional Round DFS Player Pool
Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | vs NYG | $7,600 | $9,000 | 27.5 |
Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAC | @ KC | $6,000 | $7,600 | 22.5 |
Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | vs DAL | $8,000 | $9,200 | 25 |
Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | @ PHI | $7,900 | $8,500 | 20.5 |
Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | @ BUF | $6,500 | $7,700 | 21.75 |
Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | @ KC | $6,400 | $6,800 | 22.5 |
Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | @ SF | $6,100 | $7,100 | 21 |
Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | vs JAC | $6,000 | $7,000 | 30.5 |
Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | vs NYG | $5,700 | $7,200 | 27.5 |
James Cook | RB | BUF | vs CIN | $4,800 | $5,800 | 26.75 |
Eli Mitchell | RB | SF | vs DAL | $4,700 | $5,400 | 25 |
A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | vs NYG | $7,600 | $8,300 | 27.5 |
CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | @ SF | $7,300 | $7,800 | 21 |
DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | vs NYG | $7,200 | $7,400 | 27.5 |
Christian Kirk | WR | JAC | @ KC | $6,000 | $7,600 | 22.5 |
Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | vs DAL | $5,900 | $7,100 | 25 |
Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | @ BUF | $5,800 | $7,000 | 21.75 |
Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | vs DAL | $5,000 | $6,500 | 25 |
Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | vs CIN | $4,800 | $6,600 | 26.75 |
Zay Jones | WR | JAC | @ KC | $4,700 | $6,500 | 22.5 |
Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | vs JAC | $4,100 | $5,800 | 30.5 |
Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | @ SF | $3,800 | $5,700 | 21 |
Isaiah McKenzie | WR | BUF | vs CIN | $3,300 | $5,100 | 26.75 |
T.Y. Hilton | WR | DAL | @ SF | $3,200 | $5,000 | 21 |
Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs JAC | $7,700 | $8,000 | 30.5 |
George Kittle | TE | SF | vs DAL | $5,700 | $7,100 | 25 |
Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | vs NYG | $4,500 | $6,300 | 27.5 |
Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | @ SF | $4,200 | $6,400 | 21 |
Hayden Hurst | TE | CIN | @ BUF | $3,200 | $5,000 | 21.75 |
49ers | DST | SF | vs DAL | $3,300 | $4,500 | 21 |
Eagles | DST | PHI | vs NYG | $3,200 | $4,800 | 20.5 |
Chiefs | DST | KC | vs JAC | $3,100 | $4,200 | 22.5 |
Cowboys | DST | DAL | @ SF | $3,000 | $3,900 | 25 |
Bills | DST | BUF | vs CIN | $2,900 | $4,100 | 21.75 |
Giants | DST | NYG | @ PHI | $2,500 | $3,000 | 27.5 |
Bengals | DST | CIN | @ BUF | $2,400 | $3,400 | 26.75 |
WATCH: Best Divisional Round Sleepers, Values
Divisional Round DVOA Dispatch: An Advantage for All Eight Offenses
Top Divisional Round DFS Sleepers, Including Dawson Knox and Evan Engram
Ryan Ripken looks toward the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs and identifies several sleepers and high value plays for daily fantasy streaming. Two tight ends in particular are primed for big performances.
Matthew Hill’s Divisional Round DFS Rankings
The Wednesday Watchman: NFL Divisional Round Betting, DFS Information to Know
Optimal DFS Plays From the 2023 Wild Card Sunday Slate
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Three-game slates allow more freedom in the build than a two-game slate, but I believe you can get unique by going outside the normal building rules. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. This slate has one game that’s projected to be close, but the implied points from the other games are still high enough to find some value.
We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/
Dolphins vs. Bills
Passing Game
Dolphins
With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, Mike Gesicki has four fewer yards than Tyreek Hill on six fewer receptions. Jaylen Waddle leads the group with 131 yards, but in this group, the only player of interest to me would be Gesicki because of tight ends not being able to score many points. Thompson is not a player I have any interest in, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to throw the ball much against the Bills’ defense.
Bills
The Dolphins play man coverage at one of the highest rates amongst playoff teams and blitz at one of the highest rates. Against Cover 1, Josh Allen has a 3.9% interception rate and averages 5.3 yards per attempt. Cover 1 coverage accounts for 42.9% of Allen’s interceptions throughout the season. Allen will have to make better decisions against this coverage, and the Bills will have to win against the Dolphins’ man coverage. Against Cover 3, Allen averages 8.1 yards per attempt, with a 4.5% touchdown rate, and these coverages have been the primary ones for the Dolphins in recent weeks. The Dolphins have utilized a bit of Cover 2 against Allen, but I expect them to have faith in their defensive backs to cover their secondary options and hope Xavien Howard can match up with Stefon Diggs.
Diggs has a 32.5% target share against man coverage on the season and is the only player on the team averaging over 2.5 yards per route. Gabe Davis has struggled this year but has a high aDOT, and the Dolphins have struggled to defend vertical routes this season. Cole Beasley will take the spot of Isaiah McKenzie, and with this blitzing scheme, he will have a high reception total in this game because Allen will need to get the ball out quickly. Dawson Knox has the advantage on every one of these linebackers, and it was not a fluke game he had in their second matchup. Attacking the linebackers of the Dolphins will be the priority for the Bills, and once they get the safeties down to help, you will get the sideline plays for Diggs and Davis.
Rushing Attack
Dolphins
Jeff Wilson is projected to be a popular player and is the only hope for the Dolphins to move the ball on offense. I do not think he is a bad play off the potential raw point total and price, but factoring in popularity leaves him as an undesirable option. He will get plenty of carries early on, but they aren’t implied many points, and they are missing multiple offensive linemen. Even with a touchdown, I don’t believe he will end up on the optimal lineup.
In the last three postseasons, only two running backs have scored over 15 DK points when his team scored 17 or fewer points.
Jeff Wilson being popular on Sunday is a tough one to wrap my head around, even at his price.
— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) January 14, 2023
Bills
This backfield is the most intriguing one on the entire slate, and I will be going with James Cook in this matchup. Cook will likely be the running back to close out the game in a big win, and I believe he will show the explosiveness he’s had all season long. Cook has averaged 1.1 more yards per carry, breaks more tackles, forces more missed tackles, and is a better player in the passing game. The Miami Dolphins have been a good run defense, but this is a game where I expect them to get worn down by their offense not being capable of putting up points.
Giants vs. Vikings
Passing Game
Giants
The Vikings play soft coverage and allow you free releases, which is what these Giants wide receivers need. The Giants don’t have players who can win off press coverage and create separation, and that is why Daniel Jones was able to throw for over 300 yards in their first matchup. The Vikings allow the most yards per target amongst playoff teams on flat, shallow, and crossing routes. The Giants run these routes at the highest rate amongst any team in the entire NFL. This is another smash spot for Jones, and he has become my favorite quarterback on the slate, even with his popularity.
All three of the Giants’ primary pass-catchers have a reason for why they could be successful in this matchup. Darius Slayton averages the most yards per route on these routes, Isaiah Hodgins is targeted most frequently, and Richie James is second in both categories. They are also all in the same price range, and I will be paring two of these players for my Daniel Jones stacks over Saquon Barkley.
I will not leave my lineups without one of these Giants wide receivers because there is plenty to love about their offense in this game. Jones is my favorite quarterback on the Sunday slate, and there are many reasons to love him.
Vikings
In a 4:30 pm game, Kirk Cousins is weaker than 1:00 pm Cousins, but the Giants will allow him to have big plays down the field because their defensive coordinator is not afraid to bring pressure. The Giants bring five or more rushers at the highest rate amongst playoff teams, leaving one less defender than normal in coverage. The Giants also utilize a lot of man coverage, and with Adoree’ Jackson back, I expect him with safety help going Justin Jefferson’s way. Xavier McKinney is also back in the lineup, and I expect him to try and slow down T.J. Hockenson, who had a massive game in the first matchup. Cousins only averages 6.8 yards per attempt against man coverage this season, but he does have an 8-2 touchdown to interception ratio.
Jefferson is the go-to against man coverage, but I expect him to be doubled in ways he has not seen this season, and Jackson will help them in this matchup. Hockenson has been the second option for Cousins against man coverage, and the chemistry has developed into something of note for this matchup. Irv Smith Jr. is back for this team, but I don’t anticipate him getting on the field much unless they have a big lead and want to run out the clock. The player that needs to step up and win in his matchup will be K.J. Osborn. Osborn didn’t do much in the first game, but that was with Jefferson and Hockenson winning in their matchups frequently enough not to be needed. I expect one of those two players not to have a great game, which will lead to Osborn having plenty of production.
Overall, I don’t believe you need to have heavy exposure to the passing game of the Vikings, and I think the path to this game will be a Jones double-stack with Cook and a Vikings’ pass-catcher.
Rushing Attack
Giants
Saquon Barkley is well-rested and performed well in the first matchup against the Vikings. I do not expect any breaks for Barkley in this game, and he’s going to have heavy involvement in the passing game because the Vikings are good against stopping the run. Barkley had eight receptions in the first game, and that’s a number to expect him to get close to in this game. The trenches tool leans towards the Vikings’ run defense having an advantage, but with Daboll calling plays, I like Barkley’s ability to get some work done on the ground.
Vikings
The Giants’ run defense is not the strong suit of their overall defense; they give up 5.2 yards per carry and have allowed 16 attempts to go for over 20 yards. Dalvin Cook thrives off being able to break away in the long run and to protect Cousins better; they will utilize him more frequently than they did in the first game. The Giants will have their hands full defending the wide receiving concepts of Kevin O’Connell, and their linebackers will be hesitating at defending the run after Cousins had 117 yards passing of play action.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Passing Game
Ravens
If Tyler Huntley plays, it will make some of these guys slightly more desirable, but the Bengals are a menacing defense, and it’s hard to envision a lot of points for this offense in the passing game. The Bengals get hurt off of speed at WR by throwing it down the field. Sammy Watkins has gotten on the field for this team and been targeted down the field, so he’s a possible play if Huntley plays. Mark Andrews is coming in as a popular option at the tight end position, and I will not be looking to go there.
Bengals
The Bengals’ passing game can put up over 300 yards against any team it faces, but the offensive line injuries are a concern for me in this matchup against the Ravens. The Ravens haven’t blitzed as much as in years past and play a heavy amount of Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 4 coverage. Joe Burrow has 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions against these coverages this season. The coverage you want Burrow to have is Cover 1, but the Ravens run that at one of the lowest rates among all playoff teams. I don’t see myself getting much of Burrow, but if I do, it’ll be off of a negative game script.
The pass-catchers of the Bengals are still in play, even with Burrow not having the best of games. Tee Higgins averages the highest yards per route against these coverages, while Ja’Marr Chase has the highest target share. Between these two players, I lean towards Higgins because the price is very cheap, and he has a high ceiling against the Ravens. Tyler Boyd doesn’t get utilized much against these coverages, and I will be going elsewhere in that price range. The only other pass-catcher of note will be Hayden Hurst, and he has the highest target per route against these coverages and comes at a position with the easiest path to being the top scorer.
Overall, I don’t mind playing one of these pass-catchers, and if I play Burrow, it will be a double with Hayden Hurst as a part of the stack. I believe the play volume in this game will be too low for a big DFS matchup, and the main game to the stack will be the Giants and Vikings.
Rushing Attack
Ravens
The only hope for the Ravens will be running the ball, which will go toward J.K. Dobbins, who took last week’s game off. The Bengals have been one of the most well-run defenses in football; however, the Ravens are amongst the most well-run offenses in football, and their offensive line is healthy. When playing Dobbins, pair it with a Burrow double-stack because that’s the best style of a game script.
Bengals
I am not interested in Joe Mixon this week, and the Ravens will not give him any room to work in the run game with their right side of the offensive line injured. The Ravens have one of the best linebacking duos in football, and the trenches tool gives the Ravens a significant advantage in run defense. Mixon has two games over 20 DraftKings points, and I don’t think this is where we’ll see him get his third.
Wild Card Sunday DFS Player Pool
Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
Josh Allen | QB | BUF | vs MIA | $7,900 | $9,200 | 28.25 |
Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | vs BAL | $6,900 | $8,000 | 24.25 |
Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | @ MIN | $5,600 | $7,400 | 22.75 |
Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | @ MIN | $7,900 | $8,800 | 22.75 |
Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | vs NYG | $7,100 | $7,800 | 25.75 |
J.K. Dobbins | RB | BAL | @ CIN | $5,700 | $6,600 | 16.25 |
James Cook | RB | BUF | vs MIA | $4,800 | $5,900 | 28.25 |
Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | vs NYG | $8,600 | $9,000 | 25.75 |
Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | vs BAL | $8,100 | $8,700 | 24.25 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | vs MIA | $7,700 | $8,600 | 28.25 |
Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | vs BAL | $6,200 | $7,600 | 24.25 |
Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | vs MIA | $4,900 | $6,200 | 28.25 |
K.J. Osborn | WR | MIN | vs NYG | $4,600 | $6,100 | 25.75 |
Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | @ MIN | $4,200 | $5,800 | 22.75 |
Isaiah Hodgins | WR | NYG | @ MIN | $4,100 | $6,400 | 22.75 |
Richie James | WR | NYG | @ MIN | $3,900 | $6,100 | 22.75 |
Sammy Watkins | WR | BAL | @ CIN | $3,300 | $5,200 | 16.25 |
John Brown | WR | BUF | vs MIA | $3,100 | $4,500 | 28.25 |
Cole Beasley | WR | BUF | vs MIA | $3,000 | $4,600 | 28.25 |
T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | vs NYG | $5,100 | $7,000 | 25.75 |
Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | vs MIA | $4,000 | $5,600 | 28.25 |
Isaiah Likely | TE | BAL | @ CIN | $3,300 | $5,000 | 16.25 |
Mike Gesicki | TE | MIA | @ BUF | $3,200 | $4,900 | 15.25 |
Hayden Hurst | TE | CIN | vs BAL | $3,100 | $5,100 | 24.25 |
Daniel Bellinger | TE | NYG | @ MIN | $3,000 | $4,800 | 22.75 |
Bengals | DST | CIN | vs BAL | $3,500 | $4,500 | 16.25 |
Bills | DST | BUF | vs MIA | $3,300 | $5,000 | 15.25 |
Vikings | DST | MIN | vs NYG | $3,200 | $4,100 | 22.75 |
Giants | DST | NYG | @ MIN | $3,000 | $3,700 | 25.75 |
Ravens | DST | BAL | @ CIN | $2,500 | $3,600 | 24.25 |