Betting
1/12/24
3 min read
2024 NFL Betting: Recommended Plays For Monday's Super Wild-Card Slate
This article details player-specific recommendations for both DFS and betting purposes. It is to be read with its companion piece, Top Betting Info for Wild-Card Weekend.
>>READ: Recommended Saturday Plays | Recommended Sunday Plays
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White
Recommended Bets to Place
FanDuel: $7,700 salary — anytime touchdown (-120); 63.5 yards rushing (-114); 23.5 yards receiving (-114); 11.5-yard longest reception (-114)
DraftKings: $6,900 salary — anytime touchdown (-120); 16.5 rushing attempts (+100); 13.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-110); alternative 100-plus yards from scrimmage (+120); 3.5 receptions (-145)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White’s elite RB1 prospects are grounded by his high-volume, dual-threat role and are enhanced by the Philadelphia Eagles’ injuries at safety.
Philadelphia’s run defense stuffs non-quarterback rushing attempts at just the 16th-best rate (17.8 percent), ranking bottom six in both success rate allowed (42 percent) and expected points added (EPA) allowed per attempt (-0.03), per Sports Info Solutions.
Safety Reed Blankenship is the team’s most voluminous run defender (24 solo tackles) and doubles as the team’s primary center field running back-coverage defender (81 coverage snaps). Blankenship suffered a Week 18 groin strain, severely jeopardizing his availability and ability to perform if active. Safety Justin Evans is also on injured reserve, and fellow safety Sydney Brown suffered an apparent Week 18 ACL tear, further gutting the unit.
White’s 271 rushing attempts trail only Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry’s 272; White’s 70 targets are third-most at the position. His rushing efficiency leaves room for improvement, but his 91.4 percent catch rate ranks No. 1 among 40 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets. His third-ranked 0.24 EPA per target trails closely behind.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
Recommended Bets to Place
Philadelphia’s aforementioned center field woes directly benefit Tampa Bay’s X-WR Mike Evans, whose 14.0-yard average depth of target ranks third-deepest among 35 NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets.
Evans remains a capable No. 1 wide receiver in his age-30 season, ranking 16th in targets per route run rate (25.3 percent), 12th in yards per route run (2.34) and ninth in explosive pass plays rate (22.8 percent). He tied for sixth in total explosive pass plays (31).
Given the Eagles' safety situation, Evans’ splash zone role is particularly beneficial. “Splash zone” references the part of the field between the numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown into the splash zone are worth at least 0.5 points-per-reception more than targets thrown between the numbers and the sideline at the same depth.
Among 27 NFL wide receivers with at least 20 splash zone targets, Evans ranks 14th in YPRR (14.3), fifth in both points earned per route (0.525) and points above average per route (0.500) and fourth in EPA per target (0.86).
Philadelphia’s team-level wide receiver coverage ranks 21st in success rate allowed (51.6 percent) and 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.15).
