Betting
1/11/24
4 min read
2024 NFL Betting: Recommended Plays for Saturday's Super Wild-Card Slate
This article details player-specific recommendations for both DFS and betting purposes. It is to be read with its companion piece, Top Betting Info for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Houston Texans WR Nico Collins
Recommended Bets to Place
FanDuel: $8,300 salary, anytime TD (+125), to score two-plus touchdowns (+1,000)
DraftKings: $7,000 salary, 71.5 yards receiving (-115), 25.5-yard longest reception (-115), anytime TD (+105),
Houston Texans WR Nico Collins presents DFS players and bettors with a high-leverage opportunity against the Cleveland Browns’ nominally strong, injury-weakened secondary.
Browns safety Grant Delpit (groin) is already ruled out, and No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (preexisting shoulder injury) suffered a knee injury in Thursday’s practice. Safety Juan Thornhill (calf strain) is listed as questionable, with his Thursday practice status currently unknown.
The DFS and betting fields are unlikely to properly account for Cleveland’s defensive losses, given the team’s overall defensive talents.
Among 35 NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets, Collins ranks 14th in targets per route run (26.1 percent, TPRR) rate but ranks second in yards per route run (3.11, YPRR) and explosive pass plays rate (28.2 percent), per TruMedia.
His yardage efficiency directly stems from his route-based usage. Collins’ route tree allows him to earn targets in the highly valued splash zone frequently. Targets thrown into this area are worth at least 0.5 points-per-reception (PPR) points more than targets thrown between the numbers and the sideline at an equivalent depth.
The phenomenon was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and later named by Legendary Upside’s Patrick Kerrane in 2023.
Among 27 NFL wide receivers with at least 20 splash zone targets, Collins’ 18.3 YPRR ranks No. 1, per SportsInfoSolutions.
DFS players and bettors should lean into Collins as a contrarian anchor play despite Cleveland’s tight coverage.
Houston QB C.J. Stroud averages 310.8 yards passing and 2.1 touchdowns passing at home. He should be stacked with Collins and has strong odds of surpassing his yardage and touchdown-related prop bets.
Houston Texans TE Dalton Schultz
Recommended Bets to Place
FanDuel: anytime TD (+220), his receptions over/under has yet to be posted
DraftKings: anytime TD (+200), his receptions over/under has yet to be posted
Texans TE Dalton Schultz’s 20.4 percent TPRR ranks eighth among 16 NFL tight ends with at least 75 targets. His five green zone targets are tied for second-most on the team.
Cleveland’s tight end-coverage unit allows receptions at the third-highest rate (76.2 percent) and was charted with the fourth-highest deserved catch rate (91.9 percent), per SportsInfoSolutions.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane
Recommended Bets to Place
FanDuel: $7,400 salary, anytime TD (+175), his rushing and receiving are not posted
DraftKings: $6,800 salary, anytime TD (+115), his rushing and receiving lines are not posted
Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (toe and ribs injuries) is ostensibly the team’s healthiest starter/high-impact role player.
| MIA RB/WR Health | Injury | Practice Participation | Week 18 Status |
| WR Tyreek Hill | High-Ankle Sprain/Quadriceps Strain (New Injury) | LP, LP, LP | Active |
| WR Jaylen Waddle | High-Ankle Sprain | LP, LP, LP | Inactive |
| RB Raheem Mostert | Ankle/Knee | LP, LP, LP | Inactive |
Wind chill at the Kansas City Chiefs’ Arrowhead Stadium is expected to approach -30 degrees Fahrenheit. Noted fantasy sports weather reporter Kevin Roth confirms the forecast’s “dangerously cold” labeling, explaining frostbite can occur in just 15 minutes of exposure.
The extreme conditions coupled with injury concerns in this week’s previously linked companion piece should yield a running back-based game plan for both teams.
Achane (5-foot-9, 188 pounds) is a capable dual-threat player who maintained the Week 18 scoring role despite sharing the backfield with veteran RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
Achane’s 7.8 yards per rushing attempt lead all 49 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts by 2.4 yards, per SportsInfoSolutions.
Among 40 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets, Achane ranks 11th in points earned (PE) per route (0.031) and third in broken and missed tackles forced per reception rate (40.7 percent).
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Recommended Bets to Place
FanDuel: $8,000 salary, 64.5 yards rushing (-114), anytime TD (-115), to score two-plus TDs (+550)
DraftKings: $6,400 salary, 65.5 yards rushing (-115), anytime TD (-120), to score two-plus TDs (+450)
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco faces a Miami defensive front that lost four members of its linebacker corps in recent weeks. LB Jerome Baker was placed on injured reserve this week, and both safeties Jevon Holland (bilateral MCL sprains) and DeShon Elliott (calf strain) didn’t practice this week.
Pacheco will handle a high-volume, dual-threat role with pass-catching specialist RB Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve. Pacheco’s 4.6 yards per rushing attempt are nine spots behind Achane. Pacheco’s 88 percent catch rate ranks fourth-best.
TE Travis Kelce ($7,200 FanDuel salary and $6,100 DraftKings salary) is Pacheco’s optimal team-stack option.
