Betting
1/8/24
6 min read
2024 NFL Betting: Super Wild Card Weekend Matchup Dynamics To Know
This article details Super Wild Card Weekend matchup dynamics to know for DFS and betting purposes.
Most statistics are limited to Weeks 1-17 to reduce Week 18-related variance caused by teams who rested starters. An accompanying article breaking down player-specific dynamics will be released later this week.
Saturday Slate
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
The Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans game should revolve around both team’s passing offenses, although Houston’s ground game remains in play.
The game’s 44.5-point FanDuel over/under is Super Wild Card Weekend’s third-highest game total. FanDuel implies Cleveland will score 23.5 points as 2.5-point road favorites, boding positively for Houston’s passing game. Cleveland’s high-volume passing offense will operate as usual via its condensed target tree.
Cleveland’s defense will be without four of its six-player-deep secondary while its tight end-coverage unit routinely surrenders high catch rates. Both factors enhance Houston’s passing-game prospects.
Houston’s pass-rush health will prove pivotal as the practice week unfolds. Cleveland’s top three offensive tackles are on injured reserve.
The Browns’ split backfield faces a Houston run defense that allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt (3.3, per SportsInfoSolutions) and the fifth-fewest expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.11).
Texans RB Devin Singletary should find room to run against a Cleveland run defense that ranked 28th in broken and missed tackles rate (12.2 percent).
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs’ rushing offenses have strong odds of out-performing their passing offenses.
The game’s 44-point FanDuel over/under ties for Super Wild Card Weekend’s fourth-highest. FanDuel implies Kansas City will score 23.75 points as 3.5-point home favorites.
Both the Dolphins’ (WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle) and Chiefs’ (WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce) top pass catchers were significantly limited in and/or unable to play in Week 18.
The respective backfields feature notably limited or inactive players yet possess at least one capable and available dual-threat player (Miami RB De’Von Achane and Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco). Miami RB Raheem Mostert’s (knee/ankle) practice availability should be monitored.
Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed (multi-week calf strain) was given Week 18 to recover.
Miami's defense recently lost key defenders at the second and third levels but promisingly returned S Jevon Holland (bilateral MCL sprains).
Injured offensive and defensive passing game components will likely attempt to play. However, Achane and Pacheco profile as each team’s focal point.
Expected wind chill temperatures dropping as low as -19 degrees Fahrenheit will reinforce a ground-based approach.
The Dolphins’ rushing offense ranked fifth in points above average (PAA) per rushing play (0.051), and their 5.0 yards per rushing attempt was second.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Miami and Kansas City’s rushing data.
| NFL Rushing Offense | Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Yards Per Rush Att. | 5.0 (No. 2) | 4.3 (No. 11) |
| PAA Per Play | 0.051 (No. 5) | 0.027 (No. 11) |
| Points Earned Per Play | 0.085 (No. 5) | 0.068 (No. 11) |
The Dolphins’ run defense ranked seventh-lowest in yards allowed per rushing attempt (3.8), whereas Kansas City’s ranked ninth-highest (4.5).
Sunday Slate
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
The Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills game features Super Wild Card Weekend’s lowest FanDuel over/under (35.5 points) and the biggest spread (10 points). FanDuel implies The Bills will score 22.75 as run-heavy home favorites.
The expected game script helps negate the Week 18 PCL sprain suffered by Buffalo’s downfield WR Gabe Davis.
The Bills’ efficient run game pairs a third-ranked 0.03 EPA per play with a top-ranked 47.5 percent success rate. Pittsburgh’s run defense suffered a season-ending linebacker and safety injury cluster in Weeks 9 and 10.
Through Weeks 11-17, their run defense remained strong on a per-play basis but is susceptible to explosive gains and missed tackles. It ranked 16th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) and in broken and missed tackles rate (10.9 percent).
Both of the Steelers’ top receivers, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, should earn a robust target share.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys game profiles as Super Wild Card Weekend’ most pass-happy contest.
The game’s 50.5-point FanDuel over/under is the weekend’s second-highest game total. FanDuel implies Dallas will score 29 points as 7.5-point home favorites.
Both teams field elite passing offenses, although the Packers boast the league’s deepest pass-catcher corps while the Cowboys take a more top-heavy approach.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Green Bay and Dallas’ Weeks 1-17 passing data.
| NFL Passing Offense | Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys |
| Success Rate | 45.8% (No. 9) | 47.7% (No. 5) |
| Passing EPA | 33.91 (No. 5) | 65.6 (No. 2) |
| PAA Per Play | 0.060 (No. 9) | 0.109 (No. 1) |
| Points Earned Per Play | 0.178 (No. 8) | 0.222 (No. 1) |
Both teams’ slot coverage units offer exploitable weak points. The Packers’ 3.6 yards allowed per slot-coverage snap ranked just 18th in the NFL and Dallas’ 4.8 ranked 31st.
AT&T Stadium offers weather-free environs.
Packers QB Jordan Love and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott are negatively impacted by pass-rush pressure. Green Bay’s 40.2 percent quarterback pressure rate ranked sixth-best and Dallas’ 44.7 percent ranked No. 1.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Featured Los Angeles Rams pass catchers will handle high-volume roles as the Detroit Lions’ ground game attempts to keep them at bay.
The game’s 51.5-point FanDuel over/under is Super Wild Card Weekend’s highest. FanDuel implies Detroit to score 27.5 points as 3.5-point home favorites. The expected game script plays to each team’s strength.
The Lions’ rushing offense ranked top 10 in PAA per play (0.040) and points earned (PE) per play (0.069). The Rams’ passing offense ranked top 10, averaging 0.046 and 0.162, respectively.
Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB Jahmry Gibbs should earn exorbitantly high target shares, given the passing offense’s recent injury pileup.
Los Angeles’ quick-hitting passing game is built to negate potent pass rushes, averaging 2.64 seconds to throw, the NFL’s ninth-fastest.
Monday Night
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are darkhorse upset candidates, taking on the Philadelphia Eagles’ injury-depleted wide receiver corps and pushover defense.
The game’s 44-point FanDuel over/under ties for Super Wild Card Weekend’s fourth-highest. FanDuel implies The Eagles will score 23.25 points as 2.5-point road favorites.
Philadelphia’s practice reports will provide insight into the expected target distribution. TE Dallas Goedert is in play for the No. 1 pass-catcher role against a Buccaneers defense that allowed 7.3 yards per coverage snap to the position, the NFL’s 15th-highest average.
The Buccaneers should dictate their target pecking order with little resistance. The Eagles’ pass defense allowed the 13th-highest success rate (45.6 percent) and the 10th-highest EPA per play (-0.01).
Philadelphia’s effective running back-coverage unit should limit Tampa Bay RB Rachaad White’s passing-game production, but the defense is vulnerable on the ground.
The Eagles’ run defense allows 4.3 yards per rushing attempt, the NFL’s 13th-highest, and a 10.2 percent broken and missed tackles forced rate, the 15th-highest.
