Fantasy
12/31/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Takeaways From Every Week 17 Game
The article below details one need-to-know takeaway from each NFL Week 17 contest, aimed at providing readers with immediately actionable fantasy football information.
Top Takeaways
Nacua Leaps Kupp, Rams’ Run Defense Compromised
Los Angeles Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua outplayed veteran WR Cooper Kupp in 12 games together. Nacua bested Kupp across the board in TPRR (26.4 percent to 24.1 percent), YPRR (2.45 to 1.87) and PPR points per game (15.7 to 13.7).
Nacua asserted himself as Los Angeles’ No. 1 WR in 2024 and an elite PPR WR1.
Rams IDL Bobby Brown III suffered his second 2023 knee injury early in Week 17, potentially hamstringing the team’s Week 18-and-playoff run defense.
Brown missed Weeks 6-10 on injured reserve, and the defense’s statistical splits are stark. Opponents average 23.8 rushing attempts (sixth fewest among NFL teams) and 98.6 yards rushing per game (10th fewest) when Brown is active.
Those averages soar to 30.8 (ninth most) and 125.5 (ninth most) with Brown sidelined.
Achane Thrives In Featured Role
The Miami Dolphins’ 5-foot-9, 188-pound rookie RB De’Von Achane totaled 18-plus touches for the third time in his career. No. 1 RB Raheem Mostert (knee and ankle injuries) was sidelined.
Achane totaled 137 yards from scrimmage, 14 rushing attempts, five targets, four receptions and one touchdown receiving en route to 23.7 points-per-reception (PPR) points.
Achane finished as the RB8 or better in five of the 10 games he was active in 2023, wrapping up Week 17 with 23.7 PPR points (RB8).
Ravens’ Secondary Is Susceptible
The Baltimore Ravens’ elite defense lost CB Marlon Humphrey to a calf strain against the Miami Dolphins, one week after slot CB/S Kyle Hamilton aggravated his MCL sprain.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Humphrey’s Weeks 1-16 68.8 percent deserved catch rate ranks 19th among 89 perimeter cornerbacks with at least 15 perimeter-coverage targets. Among 54 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 15 slot targets thrown into their coverage, Hamilton ranks top two in deserved catch rate (60 percent) and yards allowed per coverage snap (0.4).
Humphrey and Hamilton’s potential absences significantly increase opposing wide receivers’ fantasy-scoring potential.
Johnson’s Showing Helps 2024 Outlook
Chicago Bears rookie RB Roschon Johnson operated as the primary passing-down and green zone back; RB Khalil Herbert handed primary rushing duties.
Johnson played well in his high-value-touch role, drastically reducing the likelihood Chicago’s front office re-signs impending free agent RB D’Onta Foreman (inactive in Week 17) this offseason.
| Chicago Bears RB - Week 17 | Roschon Johnson |
| Rush Att. - Yards - TD - RB Att. Share | 7 - 21 - 1 - 28.0% |
| Rec./Tgt. - Yards - TD - Team Tgt. Share | 3/3 - 38 - 0 - 10.0% |
| Passing Down Snaps - RB Share | 15 - 100.0% |
| Green Zone Snaps - RB Share | 8 - 72.7% |
| Green Zone Rush Att. - TD | 2 - 1 |
Johnson needs to take on at least a plurality of rushing work to secure PPR RB2 status in 2024. The team can save 100 percent of Herbert’s 2024 $1,055,000 salary if he is cut before June 1.
Johnson’s dynasty value would significantly increase if this were to happen. Managers should attempt to acquire Johnson as soon as possible.
Warren Bests Harris In 2023
The Pittsburgh Steelers' No. 2 RB Jaylen Warren outplayed (or tied) No. 1 RB Najee Harris in all statistical categories this season, crucially finishing well ahead of Harris in PPR scoring.
| Pittsburgh Steelers RBs | Jaylen Warren | Najee Harris |
| Rush Att. - Yards - TD - Fum. | 140 - 751 - 4 - 2 | 226 - 908 - 7 - 2 |
| Yards/Rush Att. - Yards After Contact/Rush Att. | 5.4 - 3.71 | 4.0 - 3.08 |
| Rec./Tgt. - Yards - TD - Fum. | 56/69 - 353 - 0 - 0 | 24/33 - 149 - 0 - 0 |
| TPRR - YPRR | 28.7% - 1.47 | 17.3% - 0.78 |
| Explosive Play Rate: Run - Pass | 11.4% - 7.1% | 6.6% - 4.2% |
| PPR: Points - PPG - Season-Long Rank | 188.4 - 11.78 - RB20 | 169.7 - 10.61 - RB28 |
Fantasy managers should confidently draft Warren as a weekly 2024 RB2, as his RB20 season-long finish occurred on a severely limited workload. Harris will remain a factor because his contract expires only after the 2024 season, but Warren earned an increased role with his exceptional dual-threat play.
Acquire Packers' Rookies in Dynasty
The Green Bay Packers’ 2023 rookie class produced four of the top 32 NFL rookies in both yards from scrimmage and touchdowns from scrimmage, plus three of the top 20 NFL rookies in yards per touch.
Green Bay WR Jayden Reed’s 800 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage rank ninth and tie for first, respectively, while fellow WR Dontayvion Wicks’ 15.3 yards per touch and 50.9 percent first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate both rank top-four.
Green Bay TE Luke Musgrave (341 yards) and TE Tucker Kraft (324 yards) both cleared 300 yards from scrimmage. Although Musgrave (second round) was drafted one round ahead of Kraft (third round), Kraft’s 15th-ranked 11.6 yards per touch soundly best Musgrave’s 27th-ranked 10.3-yard average.
Remaining Storylines
Hall Pens Case For 2024 Overall RB1 Status
New York Jets RB Breece Hall averaged 89.5 yards rushing, 12.5 targets, 10.5 receptions, 69 yards receiving, 1.5 touchdowns from scrimmage and 35.4 PPR points per game in Weeks 16-17. That ranks first among running backs in four of six categories, crucially including the last one.
The Jets' quarterback play should improve in 2024, so Hall (22 years old) should be considered the primary challenger to Christian McCaffrey’s throne.
LaPorta Establishes Himself Among Position’s Elite
Detroit Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta could end his first professional fantasy football season averaging 14.1 PPR points per game, a 23.0 percent target per route run (TPRR) rate and 1.75 yards per route run (YPRR). That ranks third, fifth and fifth, respectively, among 15 NFL tight ends with at least 75 targets.
Dalton Kincaid is the only other rookie tight end to hit the 75-target threshold. He finished with a nine-per-game PPR average, reinforcing LaPorta’s status as the 2023 class’ PPR TE1. LaPorta should be the first tight end selected in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Douglas Solidifies PPR Flex Status In Dynasty
The New England Patriots’ sixth-round rookie WR Demario Douglas established himself as the team’s long-term starting slot receiver.
He ranks second and first, respectively, in TPRR (25.2 percent) and YPRR (1.89) among New England pass catchers with at least 25 targets.
He was the 17th-most efficient target earner among wide receivers with at least 70 targets. He should develop as a short-to-intermediate-depth weapon in his second season.
Collins Produces Career-Best Season
Houston Texans’ WR Nico Collins produced career-highs across the board in targets (100), receptions (71), yards receiving (1,102), touchdowns receiving (seven), TPRR (25.6 percent), YPRR (2.83) and PPR points per game (16.1).
He finished as fantasy football’s WR18 in PPR scoring (225.9).
Collins’ per-route yardage efficiency is particularly impressive, ranking third-best among 32 wide receivers with at least 100 targets. Collins was slowed by calf strains but is a strong PPR WR1 candidate in 2024 with improved health.
Sell High On O’Connell
The Las Vegas Raiders gave rookie QB Aidan O’Connell 312 passing attempts in Weeks 1-17 to prove his worth. He returned bottom-eight results in NFL passer rating (81.3), completion rate (61.9 percent) and yards per passing attempt (6.3) despite working with a talented pass-catching corps.
He is unlikely to retain the starting role in 2024. Dynasty managers should sell high after his Week 17 performance (299 yards passing, two touchdowns and 3 yards rushing).
Sell Panthers’ WRs, RBs
The Carolina Panthers entered 2023 with a potentially productive if non-elite, wide receiver and running back corps.
The team should clean house after the two units’ poor performances, and dynasty managers should immediately attempt to sell all relevant players at any salvageable value.
Among 44 NFL wide receivers with at least 85 targets, Adam Thielen (1.63 YPRR) and Jonathan Mingo (0.78 YPRR) finished 30th and 44th, respectively. Among 44 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, Chuba Hubbard (3.8 yards per carry) and Miles Sanders (3.3 YPC) finished 32nd and 42nd.
The running backs produced equally uninspiring results in the passing game, too. Hubbard’s 0.79 YPRR ranked 30th among 36 running backs with at least 35 targets, and Sanders’ 0.74 YPRR ranked 33rd.
Jones, Goedert Due For Increased Roles; Smith Hurt
Philadelphia Eagles WR Julio Jones set or tied season-highs with two receptions, 34 yards receiving and two touchdowns. TE Dallas Goedert caught five-of-six targets for 47 yards receiving and one touchdown.
Both should see increased roles in the coming weeks due to DeVonta Smith suffering an apparent high-ankle sprain (right leg) with potential MCL-sprain involvement. He was seen using crutches postgame. Smith has suffered at least one prior MCL sprain to his right knee.
Palmer Fails To Produce In Rookie Season
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected field-stretching WR Trey Palmer in the sixth round, hoping for the 4.33-second 40-yard-dash speedster to provide an effective downfield element.
He disappointingly earned targets at just a 14.4 percent rate and averaged 0.87 YPRR and a 59.7 percent catch rate. Dynasty managers should attempt to sell Palmer this offseason, as his trade value potentially increases during Mike Evans’ contract negotiations.
Mitchell, Mason Primed For Large Week 18 Roles
The San Francisco 49ers clinched the NFC playoffs’ No. 1 seed with a 27-10 victory against the Washington Commanders. However, Christian McCaffrey’s apparently nagging calf issue finally forced him from play.
With the No. 1 seed clinched, fantasy managers and DFS enthusiasts should lean into backups Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason against the Los Angeles Rams next week.
As mentioned above, Los Angeles’ run defense is severely weakened when Brown doesn’t play.
McLaughlin Is Priority Dynasty Add
Denver Broncos undrafted free agent RB Jaleel McLaughlin is signed through the 2025 season, providing dynasty managers with the contractual stability needed to confidently make a multi-year investment in an explosive, dual-threat running back.
Among 58 NFL running backs with at least 65 rushing attempts, McLaughlin ranks second, fourth, and fifth, respectively, in yards per rushing attempt (5.6), yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.47), and explosive run play rate (11.1 percent). Among 38 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets, McLaughlin ranks first and third, respectively, in TPRR (39.1 percent) and YPRR (1.74). His 5-foot-7, 187-pound frame helps depress McLaughlin’s trade-acquisition cost despite his moderate 29.3 body mass index (BMI) and injury-free history.
Buy-Low On Mahomes In Dynasty
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes closes the 2023 fantasy football season with career-worst numbers in average depth of target (6.5 yards) and yards per passing attempt (7.0) despite producing a career-best 67.2 percent completion rate.
TE Travis Kelce’s decline and WR Kadarius Toney’s exposure as a glorified gadget player put the onus on Kansas City’s front office to surround Mahomes with improved weaponry this offseason. Dynasty managers should aggressively exploit Mahomes’ temporarily reduced trade-acquisition cost.
