Betting
1/12/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Betting: Recommended Plays For Sunday's Super Wild-Card Slate
This article details player-specific recommendations for both DFS and betting purposes. It is to be read with its companion piece, Top Betting Info for Wild-Card Weekend.
>>READ: Recommended Saturday Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $5,800 salary — anytime touchdown (+320); his receiving props bets have yet to be posted
DraftKings: $3,400 salary — alternative 50-plus yard receiving (+270); 2.5 receptions (-120); 16.5-yard longest reception (-115)
Buffalo Bills slot WR Khalil Shakir elevates to the No. 2 wide receiver role with downfield WR Gabe Davis unlikely to play due to a sprained PCL. Shakir gets a winnable one-on-one matchup with Pittsburgh Steelers slot CB Chandon Sullivan.
Shakir will run routes at all three levels of the field, and his interior pre-snap alignment provides quick access to seam-stretching splash zone usage. (“Splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield.
Targets thrown into this area are worth at least 0.5 points-per-reception (PPR) more than targets thrown between the painted numbers and the sideline at an equivalent depth. The phenomenon was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and later named by Legendary Upside’s Patrick Kerrane in 2023.
Shakir’s 19.4 yards per route run (YPRR) on splash zone targets rank second-best among 84 NFL wide receivers with at least nine such targets, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS).
Among 66 NFL slot receivers with at least 35 targets, Shakir boasts league-leading marks in YPRR (14.1), points earned (PE) per route (0.498), points above average (PAA) per route (0.476) and expected points added (EPA) per target (0.92). His 47th-ranked 8.8-yard average depth of target (aDot) bodes wel for his short-area usage in a game that could experience sustained 20 miles-per-hour winds and snowfall.
Among 78 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 10 targets thrown to slot receivers in their primary coverage, Sullivan’s 70 percent catch-rate-allowed ranks 12th-highest. He ranks outside the top 45 in both success rate allowed (50 percent) and EPA allowed per target (0.37).
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $9,300 salary — anytime (rushing/receiving) touchdown (-105); two-plus anytime (rushing/receiving) touchdowns (+650)
DraftKings: N/A
As mentioned above, wind and snow are expected in this wild-card game. Buffalo QB Josh Allen’s 21 green zone rushing attempts trail only Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts’ 29. Among five NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 rushing attempts, Allen leads the league in both first-downs gained, touchdowns-scored rate (66.7 percent) and yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.0).
In Weeks 9-10, Pittsburgh lost LB Kwon Alexander, LB Cole Holcomb and S Keanu Neal to injured reserve. EDGE T.J. Watt (MCL sprain) will not play.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $10,000 salary — anytime touchdown (-160); two-plus anytime touchdowns (+390); 7.5 receptions (-148); 27.5-yard longest reception (-114)
DraftKings: $9,000 salary — 98.5 yards receiving (-115)
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (53.3 percent slot rate, per TruMedia) gets a winnable matchup against Green Bay Packers slot CB Keisean Nixon and recently injured No. 1 perimeter cornerback Jaire Alexander (ankle).
Among 35 NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets, Lamb’s 29 percent targets-per-route-run (TPRR) rate ranks third-best. His 2.80 YPRR ranks fifth-best, and his 38 explosive pass plays rank second-best. Per SIS, Lamb ranks in the top five in PE per route (0.082), PAA per route (0.060) and EPA per target (0.47).
Per SIS, among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 19 targets thrown to slot receivers in their primary coverage, Nixon ranks 30th in both catch rate allowed (63.6 percent) and deserved catch rate allowed (87.5 percent) and 18th in EPA allowed per target (0.13).
Among 88 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 14 targets thrown to wide receivers in their primary coverage, Alexander ranks outside the top 65 in catch rate allowed (71.4 percent), yards allowed per coverage snap (3.7) and EPA allowed per target (0.38).
Green Bay’s defense allows explosive pass plays to wide receivers at the fifth-highest rate: 20.8 percent.
Lamb is among 27 wide receivers to earn at least 20 splash zone targets, and his 17.3 YPRR on such targets ranks third-best.
He should be team-stacked with QB Dak Prescott ($8,600 FanDuel salary and $7,600 DraftKings salary), whose 12 percent touchdown rate on splash zone targets thrown to wide receivers ranks third-highest among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 such passing attempts. Prescott is live to hit the over on his 38.5-yard longest-reception DraftKings prop bet.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $7,600 salary — anytime (rushing/receiving) touchdown (+750); 242.5 yards passing (-114); 1.5 touchdowns passing (-125)
DraftKings: $6,300 salary — 1.5 touchdowns passing (-125); 35.5-yard longest completion (-115)
Green Bay QB Jordan Love should be team-stacked with varying pass-catcher combinations to create DFS leverage. He can also be game-stacked with Lamb.
The big-armed Love’s seventh-ranked 8.3-yard aDot (ranked among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 240 passing attempts) will remain aggressive, protected from the elements in the enclosed AT&T Stadium. He ranks 12th in PE per play (0.185), eighth in success rate (46.6 percent) and fifth in boom rate (24.6 percent).
Green Bay WR Jayden Reed ($7,000 FanDuel salary; $5,700 DraftKings salary; +165 anytime touchdown scorer odds on both sites) offers reliable touch volume in his Percy Harvin-esque role (credit: The UnDroppables’ Jax Falcone).
Both WR Dontayvion Wicks (16.1 splash zone YPRR; $5,900 FanDuel salary; $4,800 DraftKings salary) and WR Bo Melton (16.4 splash zone YPRR; $5,100 FanDuel salary; $3,300 DraftKings salary) average more than 16 YPRR via splash zone targets. Among 52 NFL wide receivers with at least 14 such targets, Wicks’ per-route average and 71.4 percent catch rate rank ninth-best.
Green Bay WR Christian Watson’s affordable salaries ($6,400 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings) could result in saturated exposure. He opened Super Wild-Card Weekend with a “limited participant” practice designation after straining his right hamstring for the fourth time in two seasons.
Matt LaFleur smartly focuses Love’s downfield passing toward the splash zone. Love’s 83 splash zone passing attempts, 41 splash zone completions and 61 catchable splash zone passing attempts all rank ninth-best or better.
Love’s 4.9 yards per rushing attempt ranks fifth-best among 13 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 rushing attempts.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $7,400 salary — anytime touchdown (-145); two-plus anytime touchdowns (+430); 52.5 yards rushing (-114); most rushing yards of the game (+320)
DraftKings: $6,500 salary — 3.5 receptions (+114); 11.5-yard longest reception (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams' run defense heavily relies on ILB Ernest Jones, whose 85 combined run-defense tackles on non-quarterback rushing attempts are the sixth-most among NFL linebackers, per SIS. Los Angeles’ run defense, excluding quarterback rushing attempts, ranks 19th in success rate allowed (39.7 percent), 17th in EPA allowed per play (-0.08) and 23rd in stuff rate (17.0 percent). The Rams' defense closes on the ball quickly but surrenders the league’s 10th-highest catch rate to opposing running backs (80 percent).
The Lions' No. 1 RB Jahmyr Gibbs should handle a featured, dual-threat workload in an expectedly run-heavy game script. Gibbs’ target share is set to increase following TE Sam LaPorta’s Week 18 hyperextended knee and bone bruise.
Among 49 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, Gibbs ranks in the top four in yards per rushing attempt (5.2) and broken and missed tackles forced rate (24.2 percent).
Among 40 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets, Gibbs ranks 12th in TPRR (21.8 percent) and fifth in explosive pass plays rate (9.9 percent).
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua
Recommended bets to place
FanDuel: $8,000 salary — anytime touchdown (+125); two-plus anytime touchdowns (+850); 76.5 yards receiving (-114); 24.5-yard longest reception (-122)
DraftKings: $7,200 salary — anytime touchdown (+110), two-plus anytime touchdowns (+700); 5.5 receptions (-145)
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua lines up on the perimeter pre-snap at a 69.6 percent rate, providing ample access to Lions perimeter coverage defenders CB Kindle Vildor and CB Cameron Sutton. Among 98 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 12 targets thrown to perimeter receivers in their perimeter coverage, Vildor (53.8 percent and 4.9, respectively) and Sutton (61.5 percent and 2.9, respectively) rank outside the top 55 in catch rate allowed and yards allowed per coverage snap.
Among 35 NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets, Nacua ranks in the top 12 in TPRR (28 percent), YPRR (2.60) and explosive pass plays rate (21.5).
Nacua’s high-volume splash zone role should yield explosive pass plays. His 34 splash zone targets are the third-most among NFL wide receivers.
