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NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Browns vs. Texans

NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Browns vs. Texans
Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1) Opening Spread: Texans +7. Opening Game Total: 46. Opening Team Totals: Texans (19.5), Browns (26.5). Weather: Dome. The Line Report This line opened as Texans +7. This line has moved to Texans +6.5 and then back up to Texans +7.5. DraftKings Pick’Em has the Texans +6.5. Circa Sports […]

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High-Value Touch Report: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rushing, Receiving Data

High-Value Touch Report: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rushing, Receiving Data
Welcome back to the Week 12 installment of the high-value touch report. I examine the rushing and receiving data in the red zone, goal-to-go and third/fourth down situations. Fantasy football is humbling, and sometimes the most logical and data-focused analysis doesn’t pan out. Or the one-game sample turns into a trend we might have missed, like […]

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Fantasy

Waiver Wire Targets for Week 4

This waiver wire page will be constantly updated throughout the day to reflect any new information from the games. It’s also geared toward 12-team PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are owned in less than 40% of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. 

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, Falcons

These quarterbacks are not a waiver priority. They’re simply here if you need a backup quarterback, or you’re playing in a superflex or 2-QB league. Let’s get that out of the way. As for Mariota, his rushing upside obviously gives him some fantasy value. His 23 rushing attempts over three games rank among the top five at the position. In fact, Mariota once again finished with more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. No, you’re not dropping one of those greats for Mariota. Although you could certainly make a case for starting Mariota over Rodgers or Brady in Week 4, given Atlanta’s uninspiring matchup versus Cleveland.

Jacoby Brissett, Browns

Again, you don’t have to add Brissett. He’s simply the best option among a mediocre group of the typically available passers. That’s not saying much. Still, it’s encouraging to see Brissett drop 17.9 points against a stingy Steelers defense — even without T.J. Watt. The Browns face the Falcons next week who haven’t been known to lock down quarterbacks. You shouldn’t expect a 20-point explosion out of Brissett. Instead, expect a performance that nets you around 14-17 points. In other words, his floor isn’t too low. Having a playmaker like Amari Cooper certainly helps, too. Brissett is a fine addition in 2-QB leagues or in redraft as a streaming option, but nothing more. There just may be no better quarterback left on the waiver wire.

Other QBs to Consider: Zach Wilson

Running Back

Khalil Herbert, Bears

Stats and analysis derived from Nic Bodiford’s 5 Takeaways column for Week 4. 

Herbert is a must-add this week after totaling 169 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns, playing in relief of injured starter, David Montgomery. Montgomery is believed to have suffered both an MCL sprain and high-ankle sprain, and a four-to-six week absence is expected. Side effects from high-ankle sprains often linger until the player has time to fully rehabilitate in the offseason, which means Herbert may be able to outplay Montgomery even after Montgomery returns.

Herbert played very well, averaging 7.85 yards per carry and 6.60 yards after contact per carry, and took 20 carries for 157 rushing yards, per data provided by TruMedia. Chicago’s No. 3 running back, pass-catching specialist Trestan Ebner, had just seven carries for just 23 yards.

Surprisingly, Herbert was also heavily involved in the passing game, running a route on 14 of the 14 passing plays for which he was on the field. Ebner ran a route on 85.7% of his passing down reps, six in all. Herbert promisingly secured both of his targets, taking the two catches for 12 yards, while Ebner failed to catch the one target he earned.

The 5-foot-9, 212-pound Herbert was in on all three of Chicago’s green zone snaps, inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Head coach Matt Eberflus put the ball in his hands each time and Herbert responded by finding the end zone from one yard out. Ebner was not given a green zone snap.

Herbert will be a top-24 fantasy football running back against the New York Giants next week. Per The 33rd Team’s free interactive data tool, New York allowed the 13th-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs through Weeks 1 and 2. New York’s 5.0 yards per carry allowed ranks ninth in the NFL and their 12.9 yards per running back reception allowed is the league’s single highest average.

Jamaal Williams, Lions

If Williams is still available in your league, scoop him up immediately. He’s the top running back on waivers, as FantasyPros says he‘s on waivers in nearly half of all fantasy leagues. With D’Andre Swift reportedly nursing multiple injuries, Williams could be in-line for even more work… and he’s already been seeing considerable work. Williams has unseated Swift in every goal-line situation this season, and he’s mostly had a grip on short-yardage situations. It’s clear Dan Campbell and Co. view Williams as the bruiser in this backfield. If Swift misses time, Williams vaults to safe-RB2 territory. 

J.D. McKissic, Commanders

Somehow, McKissic is still on the waiver wire in 65.2% of leagues, per FantasyPros. McKissic once again was a top option in the Commanders’ passing game. He saw eight targets, which was the third-most on the team in Sunday’s defeat. Through three games, McKissic is also third in targets behind Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin. He’s averaged 10.4 points in that span and ranks as RB31 in PPR leagues. McKissic isn’t a must-start or even someone worthy of a flex spot yet, but his consistency has carried over from last season. If you’re lacking depth at the position, McKissic is a fine bench player with upside should Antonio Gibson miss time. Brian Robinson’s pending return should impact Gibson more than McKissic, though, since the latter is firmly planted as the team’s top receiving back.

Other RBs to Consider: Craig Reynolds

Wide Receiver

Greg Dortch, Cardinals

Don’t look now, but Dortch may be legit. He scored 13+ points in his first two games and followed it up with a 17-point performance in Week 3. The best part: Dortch’s only touchdown came in Week 2.  He’s seeing enough work to warrant legitimate flex consideration. Even if/when Rondale Moore comes back healthy, Dortch could’ve played his way into the Cardinals’ WR2 role alongside Marquise Brown. Of course, we should expect things to change when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension in three weeks. Until then, make sure Dortch isn’t on waivers in your leagues. And some free lineup advice for Week 4: Slot him into the flex spot against the Panthers next week. He’s a top waiver wire target.

Romeo Doubs, Packers

Stats and analysis derived from Nic Bodiford’s 5 Takeaways column for Week 4. 

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs appears to have won the No. 1 wide receiver role, leading the team in all receiving categories; eight receptions on eight targets, 73 yards receiving, and one receiving touchdowns. He is a must-add and will be ranked inside the position’s top-36 next week.

Doubs repeatedly got open against Tampa Bay’s perimeter coverage, running 28 of his team-high 34 routes lined up on the outside. The rookie wide receiver was a menace with the ball in his hands, averaging 6 yards after the catch per reception. That very same 6 yards after the catch per reception rate is also his Weeks 1-3 average, which ranks No. 2 among all NFL rookie wide receivers with at least 10 targets this year.

Fantasy managers should be optimistic that Doubs and veteran wide receiver Allen Lazard can coexist moving forward, as Lazard took a team-high 15 snaps lined up in the slot. Doubs was used as a short-to-intermediate area weapon, averaging 3.13 air yards per target, while Lazard stretched the field vertically up the seam. The latter man averaged 15.33 air yards per target, the second highest on the team behind depth receiver Juwann Winfree.

Though Green Bay’s next opponent, the New England Patriots, boasts a sturdy coverage unit, Doubs has earned the trust of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and should retain reasonable volume even in a tough matchup. After Week 4, Green Bay gets a three-week passing party against the paltry coverage units of the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.

Other WRs to Consider: Mack Hollins, Zay Jones, Randall Cobb

Tight End

David Njoku, Browns

Any tight end that puts up 20+ points usually deserves waiver consideration. If you need a tight end, here’s the upside Njoku brings to your lineup. He just scored 23.9 points on 10 targets, which was second on the team behind Amari Cooper’s 11 targets. No other Cleveland Brown saw more than four targets. The downside? Njoku only had six targets prior to Week 3. Luckily, there’s still no clear WR2 in Cleveland, so Njoku could snag that mantle. Njoku is likely the best tight end on waivers if you need some depth. Just don’t spend too much FAAB on him. 

Tyler Conklin, Jets

Unlike Njoku, Conklin has been super consistent through the first three weeks. He’s exceeded double-digits each week and averaged 12.6 points. Conklin has also seen at least seven targets in each game. Could the return of Zach Wilson add a roadblock to Conklin’s surprisingly smooth start? Of course, but until that happens, Conklin is a must-add at such a barren fantasy position. He’s even a borderline TE1 against a T.J. Watt-less Steelers in Week 4. 

Other TEs to Consider: Cameron Brate

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