Kyren Williams

NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Seahawks vs. Rams

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NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Seahawks vs. Rams
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8) Opening Spread: Rams +5. Opening Game Total: 42. Opening Team Totals: Rams (18.5), Seahawks (23.5). Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns. The Line Report This line opened as Rams +5. This line has moved to Rams +7.5. DraftKings Pick’Em has the Rams +7.5. Circa Sports Millions Pro Football […]

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NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Rams vs. Chiefs

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NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Rams vs. Chiefs
Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) Opening Spread: Chiefs -14.5. Opening Game Total: 44. Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.25), Rams (14.75). Weather: Outdoors, no concerns. The Line Report This line opened between Chiefs -14 and Chiefs -14.5. This line has moved to Chiefs -15.5. DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs -15.5. Circa Sports […]

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Fantasy

Fantasy Football Week 12: Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More

4 min Watch

The fantasy football playoffs are suddenly just a few short weeks away. So you’ll need to be extra proactive in picking up players off of waivers – for Week 12 and beyond.

And, of course, as the waiver wire gets ever so thinner, I’ll be adding additional info, such as drops and stashes. Consider it an early holiday gift!

As always, this waivers column is geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

Quarterbacks

You can officially drop Russell Wilson.

  • Rostered in 64.9% of leagues.
  • I said last week you can drop Wilson unless you’re desperate for a quarterback to stream.
  • Wilson rewarded those poor souls with 10.7 fantasy points.
  • It doesn’t matter who Denver plays. Cut Wilson if you haven’t already.
  • That’s all you need to know about one of the season’s biggest disappointments.

It’s past time to stash Deshaun Watson.

  • Rostered in 40% of leagues.
  • There are almost no inspiring quarterbacks left on waivers.
  • Watson began practicing last week and is set to return in Week 13.
  • He gets a good offensive line, a good backfield and a good WR1 in Amari Cooper.
  • While Watson could be rusty, his upside in fantasy is too great to ignore.
  • Although, Watson’s next two opponents are top-eight in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks: Houston and Cincinnati.
  • He’s still a must-add for any team with a roster spot to fill.

Running Backs

Samaje Perine is a top pickup, but be cautious.

  • Rostered in 4.3% of leagues.
  • Perine filled in for Joe Mixon, who left in the first half with a concussion.
  • He scored 30.2 fantasy points, including three touchdowns on four targets.
  • Perine only ran for 30 rushing yards on 11 carries.
  • Even if Mixon is available for Week 12, Perine’s upside warrants a roster spot.
  • The Bengals face the Titans in Tennessee, who has allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs.
  • They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
  • So Perine isn’t a must-start, but the sheer volatility of the running back position in fantasy could vault Perine into RB2 status.
  • And that, again, assumes Mixon doesn’t play.

Latavius Murray is the top running back on waivers.

  • Rostered in 28.4% of leagues.
  • In Week 12, Murray had a season-high—and game-high—17 carries for 49 rushing yards and a touchdown.
  • He also caught all four targets for 23 yards.
  • Murray ran just four fewer routes than Melvin Gordon.
  • Denver cut Melvin Gordon Monday.
  • Chase Edmonds will miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury.
  • The Broncos face the Panthers in Week 12, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Don’t cut Tyler Allgeier yet.

  • Rostered in 49.2% of leagues.
  • With Cordarrelle Patterson back in the rotation, Allgeier has 3.3 and 7.4 fantasy points in the last two games, respectively.
  • He had just eight carries in each game, too.
  • Still, Allgeier and Patterson each saw 8+ carries and ran 10 routes.
  • They also saw a nearly identical snap count and target share.
  • Just don’t start Allgeier, especially in Week 12.
  • The Falcons face the Commanders, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

But you can probably cut Darrell Henderson.

Note: Henderson was waived Tuesday, so you can definitely cut him.

  • Rostered in 57.9% of leagues.
  • The Rams “starting” running back has hit 10 fantasy points just once since Week 6.
  • That one game? Week 10, when Henderson scored on six carries and 21 rushing yards.
  • I say “starting” because Henderson played just four snaps after starting in Week 11.
  • Cam Akers was Los Angeles’ primary back, with Kyren Williams as the main receiving back.
  • The Rams offense has failed to score 20+ points since Week 6.
  • Henderson is a bad running back in a bad situation on a bad offense.

Don’t expect much from any Rams running back.

  • Cam Akers is rostered in 35.4% of leagues.
  • Kyren Williams is rostered in 19.8% of leagues.
  • The Rams’ rushing offense has been horrendous.

  • In the last two games, Akers has scored 2.2 and 6.1 fantasy points, respectively.
  • In his only two full games–both coming in the last two weeks–Williams has scored 6.9 and 5.4 fantasy points, respectively.
  • Akers is the early-down back, while Williams is the passing back.
  • We haven’t seen enough from either running back to warrant a roster spot.

James Cook is simply just Devin Singletary’s handcuff.

  • Rostered in 18.9% of leagues.
  • Cook scored 8.6 fantasy points on 11 carries.
  • He ran for 86 rushing yards. 
  • He was targeted twice but had no receptions.
  • The Bills were playing from ahead most of the game.
  • Do not expect much from Cook as long as Singletary plays.

Wide Receivers

If you didn’t listen last week, pick up Donovan Peoples-Jones and Darius Slayton immediately.

  • Both are rostered in fewer than 42% of leagues.
  • Not to toot my own horn again, but I also said both could be in your Week 11 lineups.
  • Peoples-Jones scored 17.1 fantasy points and Slayton scored 13.6.
  • Over the last four games, Peoples-Jones is averaging 13.6 fantasy points and Slayton is averaging 14.6.
  • They’re worth the waiver capital if they’re still somehow available.

Treylon Burks could be here to stay.

  • Rostered in 20.9% of leagues.
  • Burks scored 18.1 fantasy points in his second game back from a six-week injury hiatus.
  • He led the Titans with eight targets, which led to 111 receiving yards and no touchdowns.
  • Green Bay had previously held opposing fantasy wide receivers to the ninth-fewest fantasy points.
  • Tennessee had previously averaged the third-fewest pass attempts per game with 24.1. 
  • Ryan Tannehill was pretty sharp; he went 22-for-27 for 333 passing yards and two scores.
  • Don’t expect this type of performance due to Tennessee’s affinity for running the ball.
  • Still, the door is wide open for Burks to emerge as a reliable WR1 for the Titans.

Skyy Moore’s upside makes him worth a roster spot, again.

  • Rostered in 11.2% of leagues.
  • Moore was actually the Chiefs’ WR3 in usage behind Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
  • He still led all Kansas City wide receivers with six targets and 11.3 fantasy points.
    Kadarius Toney left the game with a hamstring injury.
  • With JuJu Smith-Schuster slated to return in Week 12, don’t expect anything great from Moore.
  • If you add him, you’re banking on Moore solidifying himself as Kanas City’s second-best passing option.

Demarcus Robinson is a fine waiver pickup.

  • Rostered in 2.3% of leagues.
  • Robinson balled out in Week 12 with 21.8 fantasy points.
  • He caught all nine of his targets for 128 receiving yards.
  • He and Mark Andrews were the only Ravens to see more than four targets.
  • Robinson and Devin Duvernay were far and away Baltimore’s top two wide receivers, tho Duvernay had a few more snaps and routes.
  • Excluding a Week 13 matchup against Denver, Baltimore’s next six opponents have allowed the sixth-most or more fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • That includes Jacksonville in Week 12, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
  • The Ravens still rank in the bottom six of pass attempts, but this was Robinson’s second game in his last three with 8+ targets.
  • He can become a steady flex play. 

Kendall Hinton doesn’t offer much upside.

  • Rostered in 0.6% of leagues.
  • Hinton had 10.2 fantasy points in Week 10 and 8.7 fantasy points in Week 11.
  • He was Denver’s WR2… because only two Broncos wide receivers were targeted: Hinton and Courtland Sutton.
  • Russell Wilson only threw 31 times.
  • The Raiders had previously allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • The Broncos face the Panthers next week, who have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • He’s a good pickup if you need 8-10 fantasy points.
  • Just don’t expect a league-winning performance, even if Sutton gets injured.

Greg Dortch is rosterable… if Rondale Moore misses time.

  • Rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Moore left Monday night’s game with a groin injury.
  • Dortch stepped in and caught nine of his ten targets for 103 yards.
  • Remember, Dortch scored 13+ fantasy points in the first three weeks when Moore and Hopkins weren’t playing.
  • He saw nearly identical usage to DeAndre Hopkins, and was clearly Arizona’s WR2.
  • Marquise Brown is slated to come back in Week 12 and could eat into Dortch’s workload.
  • Don’t spend too much waiver capital on Dortch.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson is the hottest target on waivers.

  • Rostered in 23.6% of leagues.
  • Johnson has 12+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
  • He’s scored at least once in each of those games.
  • He’s also seen 4+ targets or 40+ receiving yards in three of those four games.
  • Four of his touchdowns have come inside the red zone.
  • Johnson led all Saints in routes run in Week 11.
  • The Rams had previously allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • New Orleans plays San Francisco in Week 12, who have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • Clearly, Johnson is touchdown-dependent, so there’s some risk with starting him.
  • With how poorly most tight ends are playing, you may need to buy into Johnson’s upside.

Austin Hooper is creeping into late-season TE1 territory.

  • Rostered in 9.1% of leagues.
  • That says more about the state of the tight end position than Hooper’s skillset.
  • He scored a whopping 19.6 fantasy points, including two touchdowns on four targets.
  • Hooper also scored 9.1 fantasy points in Week 10 on seven targets.
  • The Titans face the Bengals in Week 12, who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • Hooper isn’t a must-start, but his usage is becoming something of value.
  • One more good week from him, and he could be firmly in the low-end TE1 discussion.
  • With the playoffs looming, it may be wise to buy Hooper early.

Logan Thomas doesn’t offer much fantasy value, yet.

  • Rostered in 6.3% of leagues.
  • Thomas scored 11.5 fantasy points in Week 11.
  • He caught five of his six targets for 65 receiving yards.
  • It’s the first time since before his Week 4 injury that Thomas saw six targets.
  • He’s scored double-digit fantasy points just twice in his eight games played.
  • However, Thomas was essentially just as involved as Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson.
  • All four players saw 40+ snaps and ran 19+ routes.
  • Thomas and McLaurin led the Commanders with six targets.
  • It’s just one game, but if Thomas stays this involved, he can become a low-end TE1.
  • He has moderately easy upcoming matchups against the Giants and Falcons.
  • Washington has a bye in Week 14.
  • He’s worth a stash if you have a roster spot to spare.

There is no need to roster Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin nor Robert Tonyan anymore.

  • Henry and Conklin are rostered in about 27% of leagues.
  • Tonyan is rostered in 40.4% of leagues.
  • Henry has one game of 4+ fantasy points since Week 6.
  • Conklin has one game of 7+ fantasy points since Week 5.
  • Tonyan has one game of 7+ fantasy points since Week 6.
  • The three tight ends have a combined 22.9 points over their last two games.
  • That’s an average of 3.8 fantasy points per game.
  • And that includes Henry’s 9-point game in Week 9.
  • Seriously, they haven’t been good.
  • You’re way better off with Juwan Johnson or Logan Thomas.

 

WATCH MORE: Week 11 Fantasy Recap 

 

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Fantasy

Five Fantasy Football Takeaways: NFL Week 8

1 min Watch

Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated. 

Cardinals Wide Receiver Usage

  • Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins made his 2022 post-suspension debut last week. His 47.4% slot rate was the highest of his Arizona tenure.
DeAndre Hopkins Week 7, 2022 2021 2020
Pre-Snap Slot Rate 47.4% 11.2% 9.2%
  • Fellow wide receiver Rondale Moore, standing 5-foot-7-inches, 180-pounds, has difficulty winning versus big-bodied perimeter cornerbacks and needs a high slot rate to produce on a weekly basis. Moore is also best used with a short-to-intermediate average depth of target (ADoT). 
  • In Week 8, the pendulum swung in the opposite direction, allowing for a modicum of balance.
Arizona WR Pre-Snap Alignment Rate  Slot Rate Perimeter Rate ADoT
DeAndre Hopkins, Week 7 46.4% 51.8% 9.36
Rondale Moore, Week 7 13.2% 84.9% 13.00
DeAndre Hopkins, Week 8 15.7% 84.3% 12.46
Rondale Moore, Week 8 59.4% 37.7% 1.25
  • If Hopkins’ slot rate is somewhere between his Week 7 and Week 8 outputs, it is a vast improvement from years past.
  • Moore’s 1.25 ADoT was on the extreme side of shallow. But it was great to see Kingsbury bring him far closer to the line of scrimmage, as it allows Moore to engage his run-after-catch prowess. 
  • Among NFL wide receivers with at least 30 targets, Moore’s 8.79 yards after catch per reception rank No. 2, behind only 2021 All-Pro 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (9.00).
  • The table below compares Hopkins’ two-week 29.4% slot usage and 69.8% perimeter usage to fellow X-wide receivers with a jump-ball, possession-style skill set.
NFL X-Wide Receiver Pre-Snap Alignment Rate Slot Rate Perimeter Rate
Michael Pittman Jr.  20.9% 79.1%
Mike Evans 24.3% 75.5%
Tee Higgins 20.1% 78.5%
  • Fantasy managers can now trust both Hopkins and Moore will be deployed in an optimal manner moving forward.

Taysom Hill is a Fantasy Football TE1

  • New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill offers fantasy managers unique, reliable and, occasionally, unnerving fantasy potential on a weekly basis. 
  • Saints coach Dennis Allen has relied on Hill more as the year has progressed.
Taysom Hill Stats Per Game Snaps  Pass Att. – Yards Pass. – TD Routes Run – Rec./Targets – Yards Rec. – TD Rush Att. – Yards Rush. – TD – Fum. PPR Points
Weeks 1-4 11.0 0.0 – 0.0 – 0.0 – 0.0 3.7 – 0.3/0.3 – 0.7 – 0.0 4.0 – 38.7 – 0.7 – 0.0 8.3
Weeks 5-8 19.8 1.5/2.0 – 22.0 – 0.3 – 0.0 6.8 – 0.5/0.8 – 7.0 – 0.3 6.8 – 55.3 – 0.8 – 0.0 14.3
  • New Orleans No. 2 running back Mark Ingram suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain and is expected to miss the next three-to-four weeks. While running back Alvin Kamara stands to benefit, it is highly likely that New Orleans Hill to take on an even larger rushing role, effectively operating as the team’s No. 2 running back.
  • Hill’s four carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard-line have him tied for the team lead with running back Alvin Kamara.
  • Hill’s 14.3 PPR points per game during the last four weeks are the position’s third-highest average, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce and the San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle. 
  • Hill has benefited from the five-week absence of wide receiver Michael Thomas (foot) and the four-week absence of slot receiver Jarvis Landry (ankle). Their respective returns are far from imminent. Neither player could log even a limited participant designation last week, and Landry reportedly suffered a setback. 
  • At worst, Hill should operate as New Orleans’ No. 3 offensive weapon behind Kamara and rookie wide receiver Chris Olave for the foreseeable future. 

Jamaal Williams’ Defined Role

  • D’Andre Swift may be the Detroit Lions’ No. 1 running back, but Williams has a sturdy role in this offense.
  • Williams and Swift have played four games together this year, Weeks 1-3 and Week 8.
  • The table below shows the rushing data of Williams and Swift.
Detroit Lions RB Rushing Yards per Rush Attempt Yards After Contact per Rush Attempt Rush Att. – Yards Rush. – TD – Fum.
Jamaal Williams 4.17 2.47 53 – 221 – 6 – 0
D’Andre Swift 7.41 4.13 32 – 237 – 1 – 0 
  • The table below shows the receiving data of Williams and Swift.
Detroit Lions RB Rushing Targets per Route Run Rate Yards per Route Run Yards After Catch per Rec. Routes – Rec./Targets – Yards Rec. – TD – Fum.
Jamaal Williams 22.9% 1.17 5.86 35 – 7/8 – 52 – 0 – 0
D’Andre Swift 19.1% 1.49 10.08 89 – 13/17 – 104 – 2 – 0
  • The table below shows the passing-down snap data of Williams and Swift. “Long” refers to three or more yards to go.
Detroit Lions RB Passing Down Snaps 3rd/4th Down-and-Long Snaps 2-min. Drill Snaps
Jamaal Williams 5 10
D’Andre Swift 42 16
  • The table below shows the green zone usage data of Williams and Swift. “Green zone” refers to the opponent’s 1-10 yard lines.
Detroit Lions RB Green Zone Usage Green Zone Snaps Rush Attempts Routes – Targets
Jamaal Williams 14 11 1 – 0
D’Andre Swift 7 1 5 – 1
  • It is fair to note Swift has played through ankle and shoulder injuries at times. But Lions coach Dan Campbell clearly values Williams’ bruising rushing capabilities, both in the open field and in scoring position. 
  • Swift’s sublime receiving role/ability keeps him as a weekly top-15 option. But Williams should be close behind him in the rankings.
  • The game script can hurt Williams from time to time, but it is entirely possible for Williams to routinely keep pace with Swift.
  • In their four games together, Williams has averaged 17.57 PPR points per game, seventh-most at the position. Swift actually trails him with 16.23 PPR points per game, the 11th-most.
  • Williams is rostered in 80.% of ESPN leagues and 83.0% of Yahoo! leagues. Both rates are too low.

Patriots’ Meyers is a Fantasy Football WR2

  • Jakobi Meyers needs to be treated as a top-24 wide receiver in fantasy football. 
  • He suffered a knee injury early in the year, which kept him out of Weeks 3 and 4. 
  • The table below shows Meyers’ receiving data ranked among NFL wide receivers with at least 30 targets this year. His fantasy data includes all NFL wide receivers.
2022 Wide Receiver Data Targets per Route Run Rate (Rank) Yards per Route Run (Rank) Catch Rate (Rank) PPR Points per Game Half-PPR Points per Game 
Jakobi Meyers 23.7% (T-No. 19) 2.20 (No. 9) 77.8% (No. 2) 15.9 (WR13) 12.2 (WR19)
  • Meyers has caught 35-of-45 targets for 415 yards receiving and three touchdowns this year. Thanks to an early-season knee injury, both the targets and yardage rank outside the position’s top 24. 
  • Meyers’ 16.6 PPR points per game since Week 5 is the 13th-best average at the position. His 13.0 half-PPR points per game ranks 17th. 
  • Most fantasy leagues will conclude with the championship game in Week 17. New England’s schedule from Weeks 9-17 goes as follows: vs. Indianapolis Colts, bye, vs. New York Jets, at Minnesota Vikings, vs. Buffalo Bills, at Arizona Cardinals, at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Cincinnati Bengals and vs. Miami Dolphins. 
  • The table below ranks New England’s opponents in the two major defensive receiving rates. No. 1 represents the worst, or softest, defenses. No. 32 represents the best or strongest defenses. 
New England Patriots’ Opponent Completion Percentage Allowed (Rank) Receiving Yards Allowed per Pass Attempt (Rank)
Week 9 – Colts 68.5% (No. 8) 7.31 (No. 14)
Week 11 – Jets 62.4% (No. 24) 6.31 (No. 28)
Week 12 – Vikings 68.9% (No. 5) 8.20 (No. 2)
Week 13 – Bills 64.6% (No. 18) 6.59 (No. 26)
Week 14 – Cardinals  67.7 % (No. 10) 7.34 (No. 13)
Week 15 – Raiders 69.2% (No. 3) 7.53 (No. 9)
Week 16 – Bengals  56.9% (No. 32) 6.26 (No. 30)
Week 17 – Dolphins 69.2% (No. 2) 8.20 (No. 2)
  • Five of New England’s eight remaining opponents are among the top-10 softest pass defenses in completion percentage allowed, with three sitting in the top five.
  • Three of the Patriots’ eight remaining opponents are in the top 10 softest pass defenses in receiving yards allowed per pass attempt, with two sitting in the top five.
  • Two of New England’s eight remaining opponents are in the top 10-to-15 softest pass defenses in receiving yards allowed per pass attempt.
  • The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets offer stiff tests for New England. Meyers has played three full, healthy games against Buffalo and five full, healthy games against the New York Jets since 2020. His average per-game receiving data is shown below. 
New England Opponents Rec./Target-Yards Rec.-TD
Buffalo Bills 5.33/8 – 54 – 0.0
New York Jets 7.2/9.2 – 75.8 – 0.2
  • Meyers scored just two touchdowns during the first three years of his career. He has since hurdled that roadblock, scoring touchdowns in three of the last four games.
  • Meyers is rostered in just 78.5% of ESPN leagues and 81.0% of Yahoo! leagues. 
  • In leagues where Meyers is on the waiver wire, he needs to be added immediately.
  • In leagues where Meyers is already rostered, fantasy managers should attempt to acquire him via trade by offering Meyers’ fantasy manager a Week 10-bye fill-in.

Add Rams RB Kyren Williams

  • Williams (high-ankle sprain) is primed to step into a full-time workload when he returns from injured reserve in either Week 9 or 10. 
  • The post-Achilles version of Cam Akers wants out of town, and Darrell Henderson Jr. underwhelmed to the point coach Sean McVay gave undrafted free agent Ronnie Rivers the start ahead of him this week. 
  • Among the 46 running backs with at least five rush attempts in Week 8, Rivers’ 2.63 yards per carry ranked 40th, and his 2.25 yards after contact per carry were tied for 31st.
  • Rivers did a good job of earning targets. His 33.3% targets per route run rate were tied for eighth among 19 running backs with at least four carries in Week 8; a great rate and a respectable ranking.
  • His yardage efficiency was lacking, though, as he produced a middling 1.25 yards per route run. That mark earned him the ninth-best average, but it is not a number to write home about in a vacuum. 
  • Williams is rostered in 14.0% of ESPN leagues and 45.0% of Yahoo! leagues. 
  • Williams was a proficient dual threat over his final two collegiate seasons. 
  • The tables below show Williams’ collegiate rushing and receiving data ranked among running backs with at least 150 rush attempts and 40 targets per season, per SportsInfoSolutions.
Kyren Williams 2020-2021 Rushing Yards per Rush Attempt Yards After Contact per Rush Attempt Broken + Missed Tackles per Rush Attempt
2021 Rushing 4.9 (T-No. 49) 3.5 (T-No. 12) 27.9% (No. 5)
2020 Rushing 5.3 (T-No. 14) 2.7 (T-No. 13) 17.5% (No. 12)

 

Kyren Williams 2020-2021 Receiving Yards per Route Run (Rank) Catch Rate
2021 1.80 (T-No. 6) 89.4% (No. 1)
2020 2.0 (No. 4) 79.5% (No. 5)
  • The NFL is a step up in competition, and Williams’ 5-foot-9-inch, 199-pound frame is smaller than the typical NFL starter. But from a rest-of-season perspective, Williams looks capable of handling a moderately large, dual-threat workload. A top-24 running back per-game average is well within his potential range of outcomes. 

 

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