Analysis
4/23/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on AFC East Teams
Below, you’ll find our thoughts for what each AFC East team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, and Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each of the positional favorites. Anytime Josh and Ryan like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll make clear note of it. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.
Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +200 line implies a 33.3 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +200 line, we think this outcome will happen more often than 33.3 percent of the time.
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Others in Series
NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South
AFC West | AFC North | AFC South
AFC East Bets
Buffalo Bills: Pick 27
Buffalo Bills: Pick 27Chance to win Division: +125 (44.4%)
DL/Edge (+200, 33.3%)
- The Buffalo Bills have a high-quality front at full strength, but they’d no doubt consider any difference-making talent.
- It was clear this defense suffered as a whole once Von Miller tore his ACL last season, demonstrating how important a difference-making edge rusher can be for this team.
LB (+250, 28.6%)
- Buffalo needs to replace Tremaine Edmunds, who signed with the Chicago Bears in free agency.
- Mocks rarely have LBs going in this year’s first round.
- Linebacker could be a need and availability match for Buffalo.
WR (+300, 25%)
- After Stefon Diggs, the Bills have no above-average receiving weapons.
- Gabe Davis is a below-average WR2 for a team’s offense.
- Diggs is the only above-average separator that plays starter reps for Buffalo.
- Adding Josh Downs (scouting report), Jordan Addison (scouting report), or Zay Flowers (scouting report) here would take pressure off Diggs and Josh Allen.
OL (+380, 20.8%)
- Buffalo has a middle-of-the-pack level offensive line.
- Wisconsin center/guard Joe Tippmann (scouting report) could be in consideration here.
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RB (+1000, 9.1%)
- Bijan Robinson (scouting report) will likely be gone by their pick, but if he’s on the board, it would be tough for the Bills to pass him up.
- While RB is traditionally not a high-value position, and the Bills are a smart franchise, having a reliable RB at the goal line in particular could ensure that their franchise QB Josh Allen stays healthy long-term.
- There’s a slim chance Buffalo targets Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) here, though taking pass-catching back James Cook in the second round last year makes this unlikely.
TE (+1200, 7.7%)
- Some high-quality tight end prospects could be available in this range, but Buffalo has greater needs at other positions with the recently-extended Dawson Knox already in the starting lineup.
New York Jets: Pick 13
New York Jets: Pick 13Chance to Win Division: +260 (27.8%)
OL (-280, 73.7%)
- Current starting Right Tackle Max Mitchell ranked 76th out of 80 tackles in Sports Info Solutions’ Total Points metric.
- Current starting Left Tackle Mekhi Becton missed the entire 2022 season due to injury.
- Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards with the Green Bay Packers despite being surrounded by below-average pass-game weapons after Davante Adams, thanks to a great offensive line.
DL/Edge (+300, 25%)
- DE Carl Lawson, DT Quinnen Williams, and DE John Franklin-Myers are all above-average defensive linemen.
- We would be slightly surprised to see them take a defensive lineman with this pick.
WR (+1000, 9.1%)
- It would be humorous if they gave Aaron Rodgers the first-round wide receiver he never had in Green Bay.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) would complement Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard well, and he’s likely there when the Jets pick.
Miami Dolphins: Pick 51
Miami Dolphins: Pick 51Chance to Win Division: +300 (25%)
OL (+200, 33.3%)
- Tua Tagovailoa’s health is of the utmost importance, and the Miami Dolphins have holes at left guard and right tackle.
TE (+250, 28.6%)
- Mike Gesicki is now in New England, and Hunter Long is now a Ram.
- We had to look up their depth chart to see who their current starter is (Durham Smythe)
- Sam LaPorta (scouting report) and his 4.59 wheels would be very fun if he lasted until Pick 51.
DL/Edge (+400, 20%)
- Miami has a borderline top-ten defensive front after acquiring Bradley Chubb via trade.
- A dangerous team like Miami can never have enough disrupters, but it’s tough to call this a team need.
RB (+600, 14.3%)
- Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson do not make up a complete RB room.
- If Jahmyr Gibbs is there at Pick 51, the Dolphins could add his 4.36 speed to a team that also has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on offense.
- This offense is built around getting speedy playmakers in space, so Zach Charbonnet (scouting report) is not as much of a fit for this team.
WR (+750, 11.8%)
- This team is incredibly thin at receiver after Hill and Waddle, though it’s tough to see them investing significant draft capital into this position again.
LB (+750, 11.8%)
- Linebacker isn’t the most pressing need for Miami, but they could benefit from an upgrade.
- The top linebacker prospects in the draft are widely projected to be taken in this area.
- If Gibbs is taken before Miami’s first selection, this becomes a very interesting betting option.
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New England Patriots: Pick 14
New England Patriots: Pick 14Chance to Win Division: +800 (11.1%)
CB (+225, 30.8%)
- CB Myles Bryant ranked 65th among 80 CBs in Sports Info Solutions’ Total Points metric.
- If Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez are there, the Patriots likely pull the trigger.
OL (+225, 30.8%)
- The Patriots have a history of targeting the offensive line early, regardless of how other teams view that player.
- Think guard Cole Strange last season.
- Right tackle Riley Reiff is only on a one-year, $5 million deal and struggled last season.
WR (+240, 29.4%)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, and Tyquan Thornton form one of the NFL’s worst starting trios at wideout
- There’s a good chance every WR is still on the board when the Patriots pick.
QB (+850, 10.5%)
- There have been several Mac Jones trade rumors, though he’s likely the team’s starter for next season.
- If Jones is traded, we would immediately bet this line if it’s still on the board.
DL/Edge (+900, 10%)
- Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy ranked 65th and 66th, respectively, out of 80 defensive linemen charted by Sports Info Solutions last season.
- Neither is a capable starter, yet both sit atop the current depth chart.
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