Analysis

4/24/23

4 min read

2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on AFC South Teams

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Betting 2023 NFL Draft

Below, you’ll find our thoughts on what each AFC South team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, and Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each positional favorite. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll make a clear note of it. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.

 

Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +350 line implies a 22.2 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +350 line, we think this outcome will happen more often than 22.2 percent of the time.

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Others in Series

NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South

AFC East | AFC West | AFC North

AFC South Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars: Pick 24

Chance to Win Division: -150 (60%)

CB (+120, 45.5%)

  • You could argue cornerback is the Jacksonville Jaguars' biggest need.
  • Players like Deonte Banks (scouting report) and Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report) could be available.
  • We’re not enthusiastic about this +120 price, but this option is more appealing on sportsbooks where Brian Branch (scouting report) counts as a corner. 
  • On books where Branch counts as a safety, that becomes an interesting long shot. 

DL/Edge (+250, 28.6%)

  • Jacksonville has two blue-chip edge rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker, making it unlikely it will use a third first-rounder on an edge rusher.
  • Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey (scouting report) would be an interesting fit and the best shot to win this bet.
  • We’re avoiding this line with the expectation Jacksonville is not going to take an edge rusher in the first round unless someone significantly slides.

OL (+300, 25%)

  • The Jaguars have holes at left guard, center and probably right tackle.
  • Protecting Trevor Lawrence makes sense for a team that should sleepwalk its way into the 2023 playoffs should he stay healthy.
  • Wisconsin center/ guard Joe Tippmann (scouting report) or an offensive tackle prospect would make a lot of sense for the Jaguars.

TE (+750, 11.8%)

  • Evan Engram is on the franchise tag and has been vocal about how he expects to stay with the Jaguars.
  • However, many mock drafts have the Jaguars taking Michael Mayer (scouting report) or Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) at Pick 24.

 

Tennessee Titans: Pick 11

Chance to Win Division: +350 (22.2%) 

OL (-115, 53.5%)

  • The Tennessee Titans do not have a single above-average offensive lineman on their roster.
  • This looks like a rebuilding year, so it makes sense to draft a franchise tackle for whoever the next quarterback is.

QB (+115, 46.5%)

  • Ryan Tannehill is likely out after 2023, and it’s clear the Malik Willis experiment is done after journeyman Josh Dobbs started their playoff game over Willis last season.
  • Tennessee could trade up for a quarterback (think the Arizona Cardinals at Pick 3), and there’s a chance C.J. Stroud (scouting report) slides to Pick 11, much like Justin Fields did in 2021 when he was drafted at Pick 11 by the Chicago Bears.

DL/Edge (+500, 16.7%)

  • The Titans' front four is one of the few strengths of the roster.
  • If Jalen Carter (scouting report) is available, pairing him with Jeffery Simmons would be tempting. 
  • Tyree Wilson (scouting report) will likely be gone by the 11th pick, but it would be hard for Tennessee to pass on him if he slides.
  • Nolan Smith (scouting report) or Lukas Van Ness (scouting report) could be considered, but one of the top three offensive line prospects fills a bigger need.

WR (+800, 11.1%)

  • The Titans have zero NFL-caliber wide receivers after second-year wideout Treylon Burks.

Indianapolis Colts: Pick 4 

Chance to Win Divison: +500 (16.7%)

Houston Texans: Pick 2 

Chance to Win Division: +1000 (9.1%)

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Tags: Brian Branch, Calijah Kancey, Deonte Banks See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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