Below, you’ll find our thoughts for what each AFC West team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, and Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each of the positional favorites. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll make a clear note of it. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.
Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +200 line implies a 33.3 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +200 line, we think this outcome will happen more often than 33.3 percent of the time.
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Others in Series
AFC West Bets
Kansas City Chiefs: Pick 31
Change to Win Division: -145 (59.2%)
WR (+150, 40%)
- The Kansas City Chiefs will be trotting out Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at wide receiver.
- They have been rumored to be in the mix for a DeAndre Hopkins trade, as they could use a reliable playmaker.
- There should be a receiver like Zay Flowers (scouting report) or Josh Downs (scouting report) available here.
DL/Edge (+200, 33.3%)
- Edge Frank Clark was let go due to salary cap restraints, leaving a considerable void on the edge.
- There is a strong chance all the first-round caliber disruptors are gone by the time the Chiefs pick at 31.
OL (+300, 25%)
- The Chiefs have a premium interior, and the signing of Jawaan Taylor fills the void at left tackle left by Orlando Brown.
- Kansas City lost right tackle Andrew Wylie to free agency, thrusting former third-round pick Lucas Niang into the starting right tackle job.
- Right tackle is the only real question mark Kansas City has on its offensive line.
TE (+1200, 7.7%)
- Travis Kelce isn’t a traditional tight end. But if you were going to draft an heir in Kansas City, this is the draft class to do it.
- Sam LaPorta (scouting report) ran a 4.59 40-time (faster than Kelce) and had at least 650 yards receiving the past two seasons at Iowa.
Los Angeles Chargers: Pick 21
Chance to Win Division: +310 (14.3%)
WR (+125, 44.4%)
- A wide receiver with speed like Quentin Johnston (scouting report), Jalin Hyatt (scouting report), Downs or Flowers is desperately needed in this offense.
- Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both aging and have lengthy injury histories.
TE (+300, 25%)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have long been rumored to be eyeing a tight end in this class.
- Gerald Everett was capable yet unspectacular last season.
DL/Edge (+300, 25%)
- The Chargers allowed the most yards per carry to opposing running backs (5.6) last year via our flagship tool, The Edge.
- The Chargers ranked just 21st in quarterback pressure rate last year, per The Edge.
RB (+700, 12.5%)
- Austin Ekeler has been the subject of trade rumors.
- If Bijan Robinson (scouting report) is there at Pick 21, it’s tough to see the Chargers passing on him.
- The Chargers have been constantly rotating through base backs the past few seasons, and Robinson would give them stability, along with elite playmaking ability.
CB (+1200, 7.7%)
- J.C. Jackson was a massive disappointment last season, but he’s stuck in Los Angeles through at least 2024.
- Asante Samuel Jr. is in Los Angeles through at least 2024, too.
- It’s difficult to see the Chargers drafting a cornerback with this pick.
Denver Broncos: Pick 67
Chance to Win Division: +475 (17.4%)
The Denver Broncos do not have a first-round pick.
Las Vegas Raiders: Pick 7
Chance to Win Division: +1000 (9.1%)
CB (+175, 36.4%)
- The Las Vegas Raiders desperately need a headlining cornerback.
- Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) or Devon Witherspoon (scouting report) could be available at No. 7.
- This is a prime example of a team need pairing with a premium prospect.
OL (+200, 33.3%)
- Las Vegas could improve its offensive line at a few positions, but they have bigger needs if it stays put at seven.
- If a situation arises where the Raiders trade back into the low teens, selecting an offensive lineman could become more realistic.
QB (+250, 28.6%)
- Jimmy Garoppolo is effectively in Las Vegas on a one-year deal.
- To compete with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, the Raiders need a solid quarterback on a rookie deal.
- C.J. Stroud (scouting report) may slip to them at No. 7, and the Raiders are also live to trade with the Arizona Cardinals to take a quarterback at No. 3.
DL/Edge (+400, 20%)
- The need for a new quarterback — along with the needs at cornerback and offensive line highlighted by this betting market — should leave you with more than enough reason to question the Raiders roster. If all that somehow isn’t enough, know they also need a difference maker to pair with Maxx Crosby.
- This is much less of a need than the first three favorites in this market, but the Raiders having so many holes makes it hard to anticipate which direction they’ll go with the seventh pick.