Betting
4/21/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on NFC North Teams
Below are our thoughts on what each NFC North team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each positional favorite. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll note it clearly. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.
Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +750 line implies an 11.8 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +750 line, this outcome will likely happen more often than 11.8 percent.
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Others in Series
AFC East | AFC West | AFC North | AFC South
NFC East | NFC West | NFC South
NFC North Bets
Detroit Lions: Pick 6
Chance to Win Division: +140 (41.7%)
DL/ Edge (-105, 51.2%)
- Will Anderson (scouting report) and Tyree Wilson (scouting report) are consensus top-five defensive players on most draft boards.
- The 33rd Team's scouting department has Anderson as the No. 5 overall player and Wilson as No. 9.
- Detroit was middle of the pack in quarterback pressure rate (34.4%, 15th) via our flagship tool, The Edge.
- The Lions gave up the seventh most yards per carry to opposing running backs (4.7) via The Edge.
CB (+100, 50%)
- The Detroit Lions recently traded CB Jeff Okudah, the third-overall pick from the 2020 draft, to the Atlanta Falcons.
- The Lions signed CB Cameron Sutton in free agency, but it would benefit them to add more to their cornerback room.
- Cornerback prospects Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) and Devon Witherspoon (scouting report) could both still be available.
- If Detroit stays put, there’s a solid chance it selects the best defensive player available or a quarterback.
- Detroit has too many realistic options with the sixth pick to make an even money bet.
QB (+750, 11.8%)
- Jared Goff is not the long-term solution at quarterback for the Lions, and this team becomes a legitimate Super Bowl contender if they have an above-average quarterback on a rookie deal
OL (+2000, 4.8%)
- Coach Dan Campbell has emphasized the offensive line, and this longshot pick definitely fits in with the “bite the opposing team’s kneecaps” philosophy Campbell believes in
Please check out the podcast we recorded with 33rd Team co-founder and long-time Eagles President Joe Banner. We discussed the NFL Draft from a decision-maker's perspective, discussing draft expectations for many teams. We even placed a LIVE bet during the podcast based on the logic Joe provided.
Minnesota Vikings: Pick 23
Chance to Win Division: +250 (28.6%)
WR (+175, 36.4%)
- Adam Thielen is now with the Carolina Panthers, and the wide receiver corps after Justin Jefferson is thin. K.J. Osborn is best suited as a WR3 on a team’s depth chart.
CB (+200, 33.3%)
- The Minnesota Vikings gave up the second-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (279) via The Edge.
- Minnesota has a considerable need at the position, but the cornerback options they want could be gone by this point.
QB (+400, 20%)
- Kirk Cousins is on a one-year deal, and if Hendon Hooker (scouting report) is there at 23, Minnesota could look toward the future and have him learn from Cousins his rookie year.
- Hooker is coming off an ACL tear, so this timeline works well for him, too.
DL/ Edge (+500, 16.7%)
- The Vikings had the fourth-lowest pressure rate (29.2%) on opposing quarterbacks last season, per The Edge.
- Former New Orleans Saints edge Marcus Davenport signed a one-year deal with Minnesota, making him a short-term solution.
- Myles Murphy (scouting report) could be a fit if he’s still on the board at pick 23.
LB (+1200, 7.7%)
- The Vikings have generally demonstrated an understanding of positional value, so we would not recommend betting on them to take a linebacker with their first pick
Chicago Bears: Pick 9
Chance to Win Division: +350 (22.2%)
OL (-180, 64.3%)
- Chicago has already taken significant steps this offseason to support quarterback Justin Fields, but it could still use an upgrade at offensive tackle.
- The Chicago Bears' ninth-overall pick lands right in the range the premium offensive linemen in this class are projected to go.
DL/ Edge (+180, 35.7%)
- You could argue Chicago needs a disruptive defensive linemen more than anything else.
- If Jalen Carter (scouting report) is still on the board, it would be a surprise if he makes it past Chicago.
- If Carter is gone, there's a high chance the Bears will select an offensive lineman.
WR (+750, 11.8%)
- This is not a line we would recommend betting on, as Chicago recently traded for D.J. Moore
- Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool is a solid starting trio, and this offense needs more offensive line help than receiver help.
CB (+1000, 9.1%)
- The Bears allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt last season, most in the NFL, via The Edge.
- Chicago’s cornerback group is not firmly set, but it’s less of a need than several other positions.
- We expect Chicago to select an offensive lineman or Carter, but if Gonzalez or Witherspoon slide a few spots, this mid-range long-shot bet suddenly becomes live.
Green Bay: Pick 15
Chane to Win Disivion: +475 (17.4%)
DL/ Edge: (+175, 36.4%)
- Green Bay has one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league.
- It’s hard to envision the Green Bay Packers selecting a defensive tackle or edge rusher unless a top-10 talent slides.
- Given the strengths and weaknesses of the Packers roster, along with which prospects will likely still be available at this point, this is a baffling favorite.
TE: (+200, 33.3%)
- The Packers desperately need pass catchers, and at least one of Michael Mayer (scouting report) and Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) will be there at Pick 15.
- Jordan Love is unproven, and a big body in the short to intermediate part of the field will aid his development.
OL (+300, 25%)
- Given David Bakhtiari’s recent injury history and age, Green Bay could seek to draft his replacement if one of the premium offensive tackle prospects is available.
- The Packers are entering a transitional phase. Selecting a first-round offensive tackle would help support Love while serving as a foundational piece for the future of football in Green Bay.
- We haven't bet on this option because the Packers could go in a few different directions with this selection.
WR (+300, 25%)
- After Christian Watson, the Packers are incredibly thin at this position.
- If Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) is there at No. 15, it’s tough to see them passing on him since his slot game pairs perfectly with Watson’s outside skill set
