Betting
4/24/23
5 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on AFC North Teams
Below, you’ll find our thoughts on what each AFC North team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, and Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each of the positional favorites. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll make note of it. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.
Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +200 line implies a 33.3 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +200 line, we think this outcome will happen more often than 33.3 percent of the time.
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Others in Series
NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South
AFC East | AFC West | AFC South
AFC North Bets
Cincinnati Bengals: Pick 28
Chance to Win Division: +150 (40%)
TE (+150, 40%)
- If Michael Mayer (scouting report) or Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) are available, it makes sense for the Cincinnati Bengals to fill this hole since Hayden Hurst is with the Carolina Panthers.
- Because tight end is not a premium position, we would not recommend betting on this as the current favorite for the Bengals.
CB (+250, 28.6%)
- The loss of premium safety Jessie Bates in free agency reduces the capability of the entire Bengals secondary.
- Considering how much offensive firepower there is in the AFC, reinforcing the secondary with a first-round corner is a logical move.
- The Bengals may just miss on the cornerback prospects projected to go in the first round.
- If Cincinnati selects Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report) — son of long-time Steelers linebacker Joey Porter — that could add a little more fuel to the already raging fire that is the Bengals vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
OL (+350, 22.2%)
- The signing of Orlando Brown makes offensive tackle much more of a strength than a need, even if they move Jonah Williams.
- Wisconsin offensive lineman Joe Tippman (scouting report) could be considered if he’s still available.
DL/Edge (+750, 11.8%)
- Cincinnati has a good run-stuffing front, but they could use another disruptor to compliment edge Trey Hendrickson.
- Much like cornerback, the first-round caliber edge prospects could all be gone by the 28th pick.
RB (+800, 11.1%)
- Bijan Robinson (scouting report) should be long gone by Pick 28, but Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) is a speedster with an elite pass-catching skillset.
- We do not expect Joe Mixon to remain on the Bengals unless he takes a massive pay cut.
Baltimore Ravens: Pick 22
Chance to Win Division: +310 (24.4%)
CB (-120, 54.6%)
- A corner to plug in alongside Marlon Humphrey has quietly become a position of need for the Baltimore Ravens.
- Cornerback prospects like Deonte Banks (scouting report) and Emmanuel Forbes (scouting report) could still be available at No. 22.
- This is a situation where an available player could meet a positional lead, but there is no real value at -120 odds.
WR (+200, 33.3%)
- The signing of Odell Beckham Jr. reduces the need for another wide receiver to pair with Rashod Bateman, at least in the short term.
- Ravens' new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, runs a pass-centric offense. Long-term, Baltimore needs more weapons.
- Wide receivers like Quentin Johnston (scouting report), Zay Flowers (scouting report) and Jalin Hyatt (scouting report) could still be available at No. 22.
DL/Edge (+400, 20%)
- Looking at the three favorites in this market could make you realize Baltimore has a number of holes at important positions.
- Corner and wide receiver are bigger needs, but Baltimore could use a talented disruptor off the edge or in the interior.
- DT Calijah Kancey (scouting report) and edge Myles Murphy (scouting report) could still be available.
- Baltimore has too many needs to bet on any of these options.
QB (+800, 11.1%)
- Baltimore’s need for a quarterback is entirely dependent on Lamar Jackson’s contract situation.
- If Jackson resigns before the draft, or the team is confident he'll return, this isn’t happening.
- If the two sides elect to part ways, Anthony Richardson (scouting report) becomes an interesting prospect for the Ravens.
- If this was a 30-1 long shot, we’d consider it, but this option is quite thin at 8-1.
Cleveland Browns: Pick 74
Chance to Win Division: +360 (21.7%)
The Cleveland Browns do not have a first-round pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pick 17
Chance to Win Division: +500 (16.7%)
CB (+110, 47.6%)
- Cornerback is one of the Steelers' two biggest needs.
- There will be a number of first-round cornerback prospects available at pick No. 17.
- That could include former Steelers linebacker Joey Porter’s son out of Penn State — Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report).
OL (+130, 43.5%)
- A high-performing offensive tackle prospect could complete the Steelers' transformation from one of the league’s most unreliable offensive lines to a league-average group.
- Even if none of the three top offensive line prospects slide, tackles like Darnell Wright (scouting report) or Anton Harrison (scouting report) could still be available.
- We’ll be line-shopping for this option.
DL/Edge (+425, 19.1%)
- Nearly every defense can improve its pass rush, but it looks like the disruptors the Steelers might target could be gone by pick No. 17.
- Playing in a division with Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, and Jackson (probably) makes having a strong pass rush of the utmost importance.
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