Analysis
4/22/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on NFC South Teams
What will each NFC East team do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick? All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each positional favorite. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll note it clearly. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.
Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A -135 line implies a 57.5 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a -135 line, this outcome will likely happen more often than 57.5 percent.
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Others in Series
AFC East | AFC West | AFC North | AFC South
NFC East | NFC West | NFC North
NFC South Bets
New Orleans Saints: Pick 29
Chance to Win Division: +110 (47.6%)
DL/ Edge (+105, 48.9%)
- Cameron Jordan turns 34 this summer.
- Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd leave a lot to be desired on the interior of the line.
- The New Orleans Saints long have prioritized a strong defensive line.
- We haven’t bet on this line yet, but it’s the line we believe has the most tempting odds, given the clear need for them.
OL (+200, 33.3%)
- New Orleans already has a top-10 level offensive line that’s quite strong at offensive tackle and center.
- Unless someone like Wisconsin guard/ center Joe Tippman (scouting report) is available, New Orleans might have to reach for a guard.
- Given their needs at several other positions, it would be a bit of a surprise if the Saints spent their first-round pick on a guard.
WR (+600, 14.3%)
- The Saints traded up for Chris Olave last season, but Michael Thomas is not a sure bet to play more than half a season, and the depth chart is very thin here.
- There’s a good chance a wide receiver such as Quentin Johnston (scouting report) or Josh Downs (scouting report) lasts until Pick 29, but we would be surprised if they spent back-to-back first-round picks on wideouts.
TE (+750, 11.8%)
- The team has a solid duo in Juwan Johnson (receiving) and Adam Trautman (blocking).
- We would be surprised if they took a player like Darnell Washington (scouting report) or Luke Musgrave (scouting report) here, and Michael Mayer (scouting report) and Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) should be drafted ahead of this pick.
QB (+1100, 8.3%)
- Derek Carr is signed through at least 2025, so we would be surprised if they took a quarterback here.
CB (+1100, 8.3%)
- It never hurts to add more talent to a cornerback room, but the Saints pass rush needs reinforcements.
- Our draft team has cornerbacks Kelee Ringo (scouting report), Cam Smith (scouting report) and Garrett Williams (scouting report) graded as players that could be selected towards the end of the first round.
Carolina Panthers: Pick 1
Chance to Win Division: +350 (22.2%)
- The Carolina Panthers are off the board entirely and are expected to take QB Bryce Young (scouting report) with the first overall pick.
Atlanta Falcons: Pick 8
Chance to Win Division: +275 (26.7%)
DL/ Edge (-135, 57.5%)
- The Atlanta Falcons could use a headlining pass rusher to pair with veteran tackle Grady Jarrett.
- Will Anderson (scouting report) and Tyree Wilson (scouting report) could be gone by the eighth pick.
- Atlanta is an interesting landing spot for Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter (scouting report).
RB (+175, 36.4%)
- Head coach Arthur Smith has designed offenses with a heavy focus on running the ball, and Bijan Robinson (scouting report) should be there for No. 8 overall.
- The Falcons only invested a fifth-round pick in Tyler Allgeier last season, and Cordarrelle Patterson is 32.
CB (+550, 15.4%)
- Atlanta suddenly has a very talented secondary, but they could become a borderline elite group with the addition of Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) or Devon Witherspoon (scouting report).
- There’s a fair chance that one of Gonzalez or Witherspoon is still available at the No. 8 pick.
- The chances of the Falcons selecting a corner go up if each of the premium pass rushers are off the board.
QB (+800, 11.1%)
- This team has Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
- If one of Anthony Richardson (scouting report), C.J. Stroud (scouting report) or Young falls to No. 8, it’s tough to see Atlanta passing on them.
OL (+800, 11.1%)
- The Falcons are weak at left guard and center, but with their strength at the other three offensive line positions, we do not expect them to draft offensive line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pick 19
Chance to Win Division: +700 (12.5%)
OL (+150, 40%)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rebuilding, and stacking the offensive line for their future quarterback is a savvy football decision.
DL/ Edge (+300, 25%)
- What was once an elite defensive line now features nose tackle Vita Vea as the only respectable starter.
- An edge like Myles Murphy (scouting report) could be a consideration for Tampa.
LB (+400, 20%)
- There have been trade rumors about both Lavonte David and Devin White.
- If White leaves, that would leave a massive void at linebacker for the Bucs.
- That said, the first linebacker off the board in our most recent mock is Trenton Simpson (scouting report), at pick 47
- The 19th pick looks like a reach for an off-ball linebacker.
QB (+600, 14.3%)
- This team likely will start Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
- If Hendon Hooker (scouting report) is there at Pick 19, the Buccaneers may take him.
- If Stroud falls on draft day as Justin Fields did in 2021, Tampa Bay could trade up to get him.
CB (+700, 12.5%)
- The Buccaneers already have a strong duo in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, and both are in their primes at 26.
- We would not recommend betting on them to take a cornerback here.
TE (+1200, 7.7%)
- This team has many holes and should not consider tight ends with their first selection.
- That said, if Mayer or Kincaid are at pick No. 19, they could pull the trigger.
- We would not bet on them drafting a tight end with this pick.
