Betting
8/30/23
7 min read
NFL Super Bowl Betting Odds, Tips, Picks, Strategies Preseason 2023
One of the best parts of football fandom is discussing which team will win it all. With just eight days remaining until opening night, let’s look at the Super Bowl winner market.
>> Explore Other Awards Markets: MVP, OPOY, DPOY, COY, OROY, DROY
| Chiefs +600 | Eagles +650 | Bills +900 | 49ers +1000 |
| Bengals +1000 | Cowboys +1400 | Jets +1600 | Ravens +1800 |
| Lions +2200 | Chargers +2500 | Dolphins +2500 | Seahawks +3000 |
| Jaguars +3000 | Saints +3000 | Browns +3500 | Vikings +3500 |
| Broncos +4500 | Steelers +5000 | Bears +5000 | Falcons +6000 |
| Packers +6500 | Giants +6500 | Patriots +6500 | Commanders +6500 |
| Panthers +8000 | Raiders +8000 | Titans +8000 | Rams +8000 |
| Buccaneers +10000 | Colts +15000 | Texans +20000 | Cardinals +40000 |
Super Bowl Betting Market
Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs +600
Philadelphia Eagles +650
Buffalo Bills +900
San Francisco 49ers +1000
Cincinnati Bengals +1000
There are no real surprises among the top five teams in Super Bowl betting markets. The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the past four AFC Championships while winning two titles. The Philadelphia Eagles lost in February’s Super Bowl but still have a loaded roster in a weak NFC.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have become a perennial contender, but they haven’t taken that final step. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals reached the last two AFC Championship Games. Buffalo and Cincinnati continue to serve as Kansas City’s primary competition for AFC supremacy.
The San Francisco 49ers have played in three of the past four NFC Championship Games. Each of these five teams has a clear path to playing in this year’s Super Bowl, but the 49ers are the only one without an elite quarterback.
Contenders
Dallas Cowboys +1400
New York Jets +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1800
Detroit Lions +2200
Los Angeles Chargers +2500
Miami Dolphins +2500
The NFC is significantly weaker than the AFC, so the Dallas Cowboys have the sixth-lowest odds in this market. The Cowboys have been 12-5 in the last two seasons, and they added significant talent on both sides of the ball.
The New York Jets have an enormous ceiling if Aaron Rodgers can return to his MVP-caliber form. In that scenario, New York has the raw materials to beat three or four elite teams in a row. If Rodgers can’t quite reach those heights, the Jets are a fringe playoff team in the loaded AFC.
The Baltimore Ravens are one of the most reliable teams in the league, but Lamar Jackson has never won a playoff game. The Detroit Lions are the consensus fourth-best team in the NFC heading into opening day. It would be no surprise if the Lions took a big step forward this season, but a Super Bowl win is an ambitious expectation.
The Los Angeles Chargers are in the conversation for the league’s most talented roster. Injuries hampered their 2022 campaign, but it's arguable they underachieved in each of Brandon Staley’s first two years as coach.
The Miami Dolphins are in a similar position to the Chargers because both teams have exceptional rosters. The primary difference is that Justin Herbert is in a different quarterback tier than Tua Tagovailoa.
Mid-Range Longshots
Seattle Seahawks +3000
New Orleans Saints +3000
Jacksonville Jaguars +3000
Cleveland Browns +3500
Minnesota Vikings +3500
Josh Larky and I bet on the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at +7000 odds when this market opened in February. Seattle has a path in the NFC, but like the Lions, a Super Bowl win is an ambitious expectation.
The New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule in the league, so they have a path to finishing the season with the NFC’s best record. That said, it’s hard to see New Orleans beating three or more premium opponents in a row to win a title.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are an interesting longshot bet. Given their significantly weaker division, they have a realistic path to the AFC’s top seed.
The Cleveland Browns are similar to the Jets in some ways because their season rides on Deshaun Watson. If the version of Watson we saw at the end of last season is the new reality, Cleveland might not be a playoff team. If the pre-suspension 2020 version of Watson returns, the Browns can make a run.
The Minnesota Vikings have a dangerous enough offense to make some noise in the NFC. However, even if their defense significantly improves, they could still be below average. It’s hard to see the Vikings winning three playoff games in a row with their defense.
Longshots
Denver Broncos +4500
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
Chicago Bears +5000
Atlanta Falcons +6000
New York Giants +6500
Washington Commanders +6500
Green Bay Packers +6500
New England Patriots +6500
The Denver Broncos would be an exciting longshot bet if they were in the NFC. Since they aren’t, they have to jump several teams even to make the playoffs in the loaded AFC.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most reliable teams in the league, and their young offense will likely take a step forward. It won’t be a surprise if Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, but it’s hard to see a deep playoff run.
The Chicago Bears significantly improved their roster this offseason, but they finished with the worst record in football last year. They could sneak into the playoffs, but seeing Chicago ahead of certain teams in Super Bowl betting markets is surprising.
The Atlanta Falcons are an interesting longshot. They have the second-easiest schedule in football and an improved roster. Even in a best-case scenario, where Atlanta gets through the NFC, it’s hard to see them beating one of the AFC’s superpowers.
The New York Giants are in a similar position. They could take another leap forward and surprise a few of the NFC’s best. But can they knock off Kansas City, Buffalo or Cincinnati in the big dance? That seems unlikely, but the Giants could be the deepest long shot with a realistic path.
It’s a surprise to see Sam Howell’s Washington Commanders and Jordan Love’s Green Bay Packers with the same Super Bowl odds as the Giants, who made the playoffs last year. This season, a playoff berth would be a great year for the Packers or Commanders.
The New England Patriots are always a tough out, but they have an absolutely brutal schedule. It’s hard to see them making the playoffs, not to mention going on a deep playoff run.
Deep Longshots
Los Angeles Rams +8000
Carolina Panthers +8000
Tennessee Titans +8000
Las Vegas Raiders +8000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10000
Indianapolis Colts +15000
Houston Texans +20000
Arizona Cardinals +40000
The Los Angeles Rams are just a year removed from a Super Bowl win, but their roster is significantly worse than in 2021. Similar to the Rams, the Las Vegas Raiders have a strong core. However, they have a brutal schedule, and QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a parallel move from Derek Carr, at best.
The Tennessee Titans finished last season with a seven-game meltdown, but they have been a tough out under Mike Vrabel. Considering that Tennessee was the AFC’s No. 1 seed in 2021, you can’t completely cross it off in this market.
The Carolina Panthers are an interesting longshot to win the NFC South if you don’t believe in New Orleans and Atlanta. Even in that scenario, Carolina has a thin chance at a Super Bowl run.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a similar position to the Panthers because they play in the same winnable division. A question may best frame this decision: Do you want to bet on the Buccaneers being more successful under Baker Mayfield than they were with Tom Brady last season? We certainly do not.
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are two volatile teams with rookie quarterbacks. It would be a surprise to see either of them even sniff the playoffs in the loaded AFC.
The Arizona Cardinals have looked like the worst team in football all offseason. That stance is gaining even more steam with whispers that Kyler Murray might not play this season.
Super Bowl Predictions
Ryan’s Super Bowl Pick: Bengals
Ryan’s Favorite Long Shot: Jaguars
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