NFL Analysis
2/13/24
21 min read
Ranking Every NFL Quarterback Entering 2024 Offseason
It's never too early to rank quarterbacks.
Of course, we don't know who every team's starting quarterback will be yet. Some teams will draft one, and others will shuffle around their used parts via trade or free agency. A couple of teams might get stuck with the same old quarterback they tried and failed to get rid of.
With that in mind, we'll stick with ranking the quarterbacks who either most recently started a significant amount of games last season or are almost certainly projected to be the starter next season for the time being. Think Aidan O'Connell for the former, and Will Levis for the latter.
Let's get started.
QB RANKINGS LOOKING TOWARD 2024
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs 
There's nothing left to say about Patrick Mahomes. The résumé speaks for itself. Mahomes is only 28 and has already accomplished everything that all but a few quarterbacks have achieved in their entire careers.
Mahomes' reign of terror is far from over. It may have only just begun.
>>READ: Mahomes Is Coming For Brady
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
We're going to do the "Lamar Jackson can't win playoff games" thing again, but I don't really care. Jackson just won the MVP (again) and remains one of the most dynamic players in the sport, regardless of position.
What's worth remembering is that 2023 was the first year Jackson was allowed to be a high-volume passer and was doing it with a new offensive coordinator.
The fact Jackson could reach MVP heights under those conditions is outstanding. Already an ever-improving passer, Jackson could still find another gear with more comfort in this offense next season. That's a scary thought.
>>READ: Best is Yet To Come For Jackson
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
I've waffled on Jackson vs. Josh Allen for much of the 2023 season. Both of them spent their time in second behind Mahomes. Even after Jackson's MVP campaign, I still think this pairing is the most difficult to rank. Either order of the two is completely understandable and acceptable to me.
For Allen, it comes down to how much of the burden he carries for this team. Yes, the Bills improved their run game this year. However, the whole operation is still designed to make Allen throw 35 times a game, balancing patience in the underneath area with enough shots down the field to keep defenses honest and unleash his arm talent.
Allen has struck that balance incredibly well, especially compared to his play even two seasons ago.
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 
Despite all of what was wrong with the Los Angeles Chargers a year ago, Justin Herbert was still on track for another wonderful season before it got derailed by injury.
Herbert was sensational for most of the season, save for a couple of blips, like the Dallas game. Herbert remains the prototype when you consider his size, arm talent, pocket presence, decision-making and accuracy.
Now, Herbert gets Jim Harbaugh to steer the ship. Harbaugh has won everywhere he has been and consistently put together some of the best offenses in football, be it at Stanford, Michigan or with the San Francisco 49ers. Expect the same to happen with Herbert behind center.
5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams 
Matthew Stafford found a second wind. After a tumultuous, injury-riddle 2022 season, Stafford looked as though he was declining, but he bounced back in a serious way in 2023.
Stafford was the epitome of a gunslinger. He sat back in the pocket and fired the ball into tight windows all over the field, often while pressured or finding unique arm angles to get the ball out. He still has a few bizarre misfires a game, same as he ever was, but Stafford's best plays more than make up for the handful of oopsies.
Health permitting, Stafford will remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 
Dak Prescott played like an MVP this season.
Prescott remains one of the league's sharpest quarterbacks. Few quarterbacks handle as much before the snap as he does. Now and again, Prescott's pre-snap premonition leads him into trouble when defenses find a nifty way to change the picture on him, but he wins the mental battle more often than not.
That mental side of the game is Prescott's super power, considering the physical and athletic aspects of his game are more good than great.
It stings for Prescott to fall to the 49ers for what feels like the 75th time to end the season, but he was sensational for most of the year.
7. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 
Precious few rookie quarterbacks have been as good as fast as C.J. Stroud in the modern era.
Names like Andrew Luck, Herbert and maybe Prescott come to mind, but it's a pretty short list littered with perennial Pro Bowlers and clear franchise quarterbacks. Stroud is firmly in that category already.
His pocket presence and ability to find throwing platforms from the pocket is rare. He also handles both pre-snap and post-snap decision-making, as well as most quarterbacks in the league. When combined with Stroud's feathery touch to all three levels, he's got a combination of skills every team wants in a franchise quarterback.
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Trevor Lawrence's early career continues to be turbulent. The Calvin Ridley trade was not as impactful as many hoped, and Jacksonville's offensive line took a step back in 2023, an issue that hindered its pass protection and ability to run the ball.
Yet, Lawrence's individual play remains impressive. Lawrence handles pressure well, plays with exceptional timing and is more than willing to test tight windows. If anything, Lawrence's accuracy is merely good rather than great like some others at the top of the list, but he is still a plenty effective quarterback.
9. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 
Joe Burrow's injury-plagued 2023 season makes him difficult to place. We only got the best version of Burrow for a few weeks before he was out for the year with a thumb injury.
However, Burrow is one of the best and most dynamic quarterbacks at his best. Burrow is a wonderful pre-snap processor with more than enough athletic ability and creativity to make plays outside the pocket. He is also as accurate as anybody at all levels of the field.
I still have minor reservations about some of the limitations Burrow places on an offense, particularly with playing under center and throwing over the middle. Still, I believe he will continue to grow as a player and fill out those areas of his game.
10. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers 
Jordan Love's growth during the season was something to behold.
For the first two months of the year, neither Love nor his young teammates could put one foot in front of the other. The immense talent was obvious, but Love was missing throws left and right, and receivers were missing assignments and hitting the wrong landmarks when Love was doing the right thing. Nobody could get on the same page.
Then, it all clicked in the back half of the season and into the playoffs. Love transformed into a confident, accurate quarterback. He showed fearlessness in the pocket and a special mind for finding throwing platforms in the pocket that only the league's best quarterbacks share.
Love still needs to work out some inconsistencies, but he's quickly asserted himself as a good quarterback and still has room to improve.
11. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 
People seem to have forgotten that Kyler Murray is good at football. I suppose ending the 2022 season in a tumultuous fashion and then missing half of the 2023 season will do that.
Murray clearly had the goods when he played this season. He shined in a more traditional, well-thought-out offense under OC Drew Petzing. Murray's athleticism, arm talent and accuracy to all three levels popped off the screen every week. Better yet, Murray looked comfortable operating from within the pocket.
He still isn't the most conventional pocket passer, and he has some limitations in the red zone and over the middle of the field, but the good outweighs the bad.
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks 
Geno Smith is good. He's not special or unquestionably reliable like many of the QBs above him, but he is firmly good.
Most of what makes Stafford good also applies to Smith. The fearlessness in the pocket, the creativity, the raw arm talent to fit every window at all levels of the field — Smith is like an 85 percent version of Stafford. Smith handles a lot of the high-difficulty aspects of quarterbacking well.
Smith should be Seattle's quarterback in 2024, and there should be no question about it. If the Seahawks want to draft someone to develop behind him, fine. But Smith's job should not be in question this season.
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings 
Kirk Cousins was kind of lights out in 2023. It's easy to forget because the Vikings started out with a horrid record and then Cousins eventually went out for the season with an Achilles injury. However, when he was on the field, the man was balling.
The secret for Cousins has always been steady improvement. He gets three percent better every year. It doesn't sound like much, but when you consider Cousins has been starting for almost a decade, that experience and improvement eventually add up.
Cousins is one of the league's best clean-pocket throwers and has improved immensely in his ability to throw under duress. He remains a dominant play-action passer but has also grown to handle true dropback passing better than in years past. There will always be a limit to what Cousins can be, but he's a quality quarterback who can thrive under the right conditions.
14. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 
Speaking of quality quarterbacks who can really thrive under the right conditions: Jared Goff!
Goff, like Cousins, steadily improves little by little. Rams-era Goff was defined by only operating with play-action and with very specific empty concepts. He couldn't handle pressure in the pocket and regularly missed throws outside the numbers.
While Goff hasn't turned into Tom Brady, he's improved on all those things. He can handle shotgun and true dropback passing better than before. His ability to throw outside the numbers has gone from bad to functional. Though not a creator, Goff is tougher in the pocket than in the past.
That steady improvement has created a quarterback who teeters the line between above-average and good.
15. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets 
It's impossible to feel good about any Aaron Rodgers ranking. Based purely on what Rodgers was in 2022, he would be much higher on this list, but it's hard to be comfortable that he will be that player next season, especially out of the gate.
Rodgers is a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a season-ending Achilles injury. The injury is bad enough on its own, never mind that Rodgers' mobility had already been waning for years.
Maybe this placement will look stupid eight months from now. We all know Rodgers should be better than guys like Cousins and Goff. It's just tough to feel good about him getting there at his age coming off a major injury.
16. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts 
It's easy to forget now, but Anthony Richardson had people as excited as Stroud did for the first month of the season.
Richardson looked way more put together than most analysts anticipated right out of the gate. He was making quick, correct decisions with the ball and throwing aggressively over the middle. He was unafraid to hang in the pocket and make difficult throws, and you could see glimpses of high-level ability to decipher defenses.
The only thing Richardson needs to fix next season is his safety. He needs to protect himself better from contact, which Jackson and Murray also had to learn. If Richardson can do that, I have faith that the rest will come along, and he will finish higher on this list by the end of the 2024 season.
17. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles 
Jalen Hurts is a decent quarterback. His athletic ability — when healthy — and his accuracy down the field are enough to make him a beacon for offensive production. However, the rest of Hurts' game still leaves something to be desired.
It's been four years with Hurts as a starting quarterback, and he still has issues managing tight pockets and throwing over the middle of the field. So many of their true dropback concepts are more static and less taxing than what most other top quarterbacks handle. In fairness, maybe that's not on Hurts, but it is telling that the Eagles changed offensive coordinators in 2023, and nothing changed on that front.
Hurts isn't a bad quarterback. He's accurate, especially down the field, and doesn't often put the ball in harm's way. What he offers in the run game is a major benefit. I just struggle to get over the bar with Hurts because of some of his inconsistencies as a true dropback passer.
18. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers 
Brock Purdy is fine. Nothing more and nothing less. It's not a crime to just be OK — we don't need to prop Purdy up as more than he is.
It's easy to get wrapped up in propping up Purdy because he's the best quarterback Kyle Shanahan has had in San Francisco. That part is definitely true. Purdy is about as accurate as Jimmy Garoppolo was but much more aggressive outside the numbers, down the field and outside the pocket. There's a flare to Purdy's game that helps keep this offense burning bright.
At the same time, Purdy is a quarterback with modest size and an average arm. That hurts him when the pocket condenses. Purdy's major benefit as a creator is also relative to other Shanahan quarterbacks in this offense, not to the elite quarterbacks.
Purdy can play, and it feels obvious he will be around for a while. We just do not need to put him on a pedestal.
>>READ: Purdy Not Yet Good Enough
19. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins 
Tua Tagovailoa is outstanding at a small handful of things. He has the sport's quickest release, an unwavering willingness to make throws just before receivers come out of their breaks and generally impressive accuracy over the middle of the field. That blend of traits is enough to produce high-quality offense.
There's a limit to what an offense can be with Tagovailoa, though. Yes, the Dolphins can blow up the box score during the regular season, but against the best teams, Tagovailoa's limitations hinder the offense.
He isn't athletic, creative or particularly tough in the pocket. Tagovailoa also struggles greatly to throw outside the numbers because of his subpar arm talent.
Tagovailoa will remain a productive quarterback who can beat up on lesser talent, but I'm still waiting for him to be a dynamic, game-altering quarterback.
20. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
There always needs to be a mid-tier gunslinger in a starting job — just one guy who is unafraid to rip it and see what happens. Jameis Winston was the last guy to hold the mantle, but now it's Baker Mayfield with his new lease on football life.
Mayfield simply played with more confidence this season. There was a hint of that when Mayfield took over for the Rams late last season, but it turned up another notch with the Buccaneers. Mayfield was testing tight windows, pushing the ball down the field and standing strong in the pocket in ways he never had before. Not consistently, anyway.
Mayfield is still imperfect. He's less athletic than he thinks he is. Sometimes, he sprays a few throws, and he is far from the NFL's most reliable decision-maker. Mayfield is at least back to being a functional NFL starter, though. More importantly, he's fun to watch again.
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears 
Justin Fields remains the NFL's most confounding quarterback.
On one hand, Fields is a dream prospect. He's big, fast and creative. His booming arm is a weapon down the field and into tight windows. Fields' physical tools alone unlock the quarterback run and vertical passing game, two of the most valuable avenues of offense there are.
So much of Fields' game has yet to be filled out. However, he is still slow and incomplete as a passer. Though better than in years past, Fields' vision and decision-making as a passer is still inconsistent. He is not yet a thrower who anticipates but rather one who needs to see it open in order to throw it.
There's a good quarterback in Fields. It's in there somewhere; I know it. Whether or not a team ever gets that player out of Fields is to be seen. For now, Fields is a functional but frustrating quarterback.
22. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints 
Things coalesced too late for Derek Carr in 2023. Carr is typically slow to take in new offenses, and that was the case again this year.
Despite the Saints winning some games, Carr was overly conservative in a majority of games. So many of his stats came during fourth-quarter desperation attempts or as empty calories. It rarely felt as if Carr played a good, confident game for four quarters.
Maybe that will change in 2024. We've seen Carr play better once he settles into a system before. The Saints have the skill and talent to make it happen, too. I just want to see it.
23. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 
It did not make any sense to pay Daniel Jones $40 million dollars per year last offseason. At the same time, Jones was not nearly as bad as things looked in 2023.
Yes, Jones is a limited quarterback. You can't let him read the entire field on dropback concepts without risking random deep throws into coverage and strip sacks. Jones handles the quick game quite well, though, and can be useful when put on the move, whether on rollouts or as a designed runner. There are avenues to get decent offense from Jones.
The Giants just couldn't get to any of that stuff last year because of how bad the offensive line, and subsequently the run game, was for most of the year.
24. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos 
The vitriol sent Russell Wilson's way is not proportionate to how he actually played. Wilson wasn't good in 2023 and definitely worse than his massive paycheck, but he wasn't offensively bad. Sure, the offense was limited because of him, but he was still generally accurate and efficient and didn't put the ball in harm's way a ton.
All of that would be fine if Wilson were making Andy Dalton money, but he's not. Wilson is one of the league's most expensive quarterbacks.
More than that, Wilson is a quarterback who makes no sense for Sean Payton. Payton is used to sharp, aggressive quarterbacks who can handle working the entire field. From greats such as Drew Brees to mid-tier veterans like Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston, all of Payton's Saints quarterbacks could handle more of the playbook than Wilson can at this stage.
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers 
Bryce Young's rookie season was a disaster. No way around it. Some of that was his fault, some wasn't, but the whole thing was bad.
Many concerns with Young coming out of college proved meaningful in the NFL. His short stature hindered his ability to throw over bodies and find throwing platforms. Young also wasn't the athlete and creator he was in college, and his arm is well below average among other NFL starting quarterbacks.
At the same time, you saw the flashes of quality play. Young handles himself well pre-snap, especially vs. the blitz. His decision-making improved during the year, as did his ability to create outside the pocket.
I'm still worried about Young's physical tools and how that limits his ceiling, but I at least want to see what he might look like in a new and improved environment.
26. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons 
Desmond Ridder probably isn't going to bloom into the consistent starting quarterback I thought he could be. He makes too many back-breaking mistakes without a clear calling card to make up for it.
That being said, Ridder is perfectly fine in the spot starter/backup tier. He handles himself well enough pre-snap and can get through all of his reads efficiently. Most of Ridder's mistakes come because he is trying to be Superman without the means to do so, not because he doesn't see or understand something.
Ridder can stick around for a while. It's just unlikely he's going to be the answer either in Atlanta or elsewhere any time soon.
27. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns 
I'm over it with Deshaun Watson. The only players on this list lower than him are either clear backups or young players with something more to prove. Watson has not been legitimately good since being a Houston Texan, and there's no reason to believe that will change.
Aside from accuracy issues and deteriorated decision-making, Watson is never on the field. In 2022, Watson missed the first 11 games with a suspension. In 2023, Watson was on and off the field with a shoulder issue, an ankle injury and another shoulder problem. Watson played just six games this season.
28. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans 
Will Levis has the exact profile that can and will trick teams into giving him time.
Levis has some traits you can't teach. For one, he has one of the league's strongest arms. The ball absolutely jumps out of his hand. Levis is also tough as nails in the pocket, sometimes to his detriment. He is an old-school gunslinger with a penchant for chucking it deep and zero aversion to being hit.
Levis has a lot to fix, though. He needs to clean up his footwork, speed up his clock as a passer and improve his down-to-down accuracy from terrible to average. We'll see if new head coach Brian Callahan can make headway in those areas.
29. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders 
I think the Washington Commanders broke Sam Howell.
For three months, Howell was made to be the most pass-heavy quarterback in football. That was a huge mistake. Howell is too young, too inconsistent and too numb in the pocket to drop back 35-plus times per game. But the Commanders made him do it anyway, and eventually, the beatings caught up to him. Howell crumbled during the season's last month.
He still has some redeemable traits. He has a big arm and can move a little. Howell clearly isn't afraid to test tight windows, either. He just needs to fix his internal clock and find consistency as a decision-maker.
30. Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders 
I really enjoy watching Aidan O'Connell for what he is. A late-round rookie last season, O'Connell showed impressive pre-snap ability and admirable pocket presence when under duress. That's a good formula for a player who can stick around for a long time as a backup.
That being said, O'Connell has zero athletic ability to speak of. His arm talent and accuracy are also middling — good enough for a backup but not enough to make an impact as a solidified starter.
O'Connell is unequivocally a successful pick for where the Raiders drafted him, but he won't be a long-term starter in this league.
31. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers 
The Steelers were sold a bill of goods that Kenny Pickett would be their version of Burrow. That simply has not come to be.
At this stage, Pickett remains frenetic in the pocket and undisciplined in how he reads the field. Throws over the middle are completely absent from his game, and it's clear he is only comfortable throwing quick game and vertical shots down the sideline.
That's not nearly enough of a formula to make for a good quarterback, considering his decision-making and iffy accuracy.
32. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots 
Bailey Zappe is only on this list because Mac Jones clearly shouldn't be, considering the reports of him being on the trade market.
Zappe is fine for what he is: A quick-hitting, weak-armed backup with enough accuracy to get by. He's rosterable and can keep things afloat for short stretches, but nothing more.
