Analysis
11/7/23
18 min read
2023 NFL Win Total Picks, Predictions for Every Team at Midseason
Here, Ryan Reynolds and Josh Larky walk through all 32 NFL teams at the midpoint of the 2023 NFL season, discussing their current record and outlook. For each team, you can see its original projected win total, followed by its current projected win total after nine weeks.
You’ll get quick-hitting fantasy and betting insights throughout. Teams are listed in the current reverse standings order in each division (fourth place is listed at the top, with first place in the division listed at the bottom). The AFC North is tackled first, with the NFC East teams at the end.
Record predictions were updated this past week and can be found in more detail in this article from Reynolds.
There is also a podcast version of this information for those interested.
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2023 NFL Win Total Predictions
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 11.5
Current Win Total: 10.5
We have the Cincinnati Bengals finishing 12-5 on the season, atop the AFC North. The first four games of the season (when they began 1-3) should be treated as throwaways, given Joe Burrow’s calf wasn’t fully healthy. The offensive line is in-sync, and this will likely be the best supporting cast of Burrow’s career, before his extension kicks in.
For fantasy purposes, Joe Mixon is a low-end fantasy RB1 for the rest of the season, while Tee Higgins is starting to look like the Round 2/3 turn pick he was back in August drafts.
Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 9.5
We have the Cleveland Browns finishing the season at 9-8. This team would win 12 games if pre-suspension Deshaun Watson was at the helm and paired with Cleveland’s current top three defense. Even with average quarterback play, the Browns are a potential contender.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 8.5
Current Win Total: 9.5
We have the Pittsburgh Steelers finishing the season at 9-8. Their defense has been solid but unspectacular, with the Steelers’ volatile offense being the main driver behind the team’s inconsistency. Kenny Pickett looks like a below-average starting quarterback who will not get extended should this level of play continue.
Diontae Johnson is the most attractive fantasy asset here — his target shares have been at least 26 percent in all three games since returning from a hamstring injury. Think of him as a low-end fantasy WR2 type.
Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Preseason: 9.5 (over -165)
Current: 11.5
We have the Baltimore Ravens finishing at 12-5, a shade behind the Bengals in the division. Baltimore’s decisive victories against Detroit and Seattle are among the five best wins in the entire league this season. The Ravens are a reliable team each week, with an excellent defense. However, Baltimore’s second-half schedule is a gauntlet of talented teams, and Lamar Jackson has thrown for under 200 yards in about half of his games in 2023. The pass attack under new OC Todd Monken may need to step up down the stretch.
This is one of the tougher teams to get right in fantasy football on a weekly basis, as any of Jackson, Gus Edwards, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews can finish toward the top of their position in fantasy points. Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell ran for 138 yards on just nine carries Sunday and should be stashed in all formats.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (3-5)
Preseason Win Total: 8.5
Current Win Total: 6.5
We have the Denver Broncos finishing 7-10 on the season. After a worst-case-scenario start, they have looked more competent the past three weeks, even upsetting the Chiefs in Week 8. The slight turnaround can be pinned on the defense’s improvement because the offense has been a mediocre group all year. Russell Wilson has rebounded nicely and sports a 16-4 touchdown to interception ratio. However, no skill position players have emerged as true difference-makers in fantasy football or in real NFL action.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 8.5
We have the Los Angeles Chargers finishing at 9-8 and squeaking into the playoffs. This team has lost several one-score games and still has a top-flight quarterback in Justin Herbert. The defense has struggled, allowing a league-high in passing yards per game. Offensively, the loss of Mike Williams and the new loss of Joshua Palmer to injured reserve (IR) limits the ceiling and floor of this group.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 6.5
We have the Las Vegas Raiders finishing at 5-12 after their win over the Giants on Sunday — but Daniel Jones’ torn ACL early in the game contributed to that blowout. For Las Vegas, beating the worst team in the league with Tommy DeVito at quarterback is not much of an accomplishment. Zooming out, this is a Raiders team that fired its general manager, head coach and offensive coordinator, while subsequently benching its quarterback. We don’t trust Las Vegas for the rest of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Preseason Win Total: 11.5
Current Win Total: 12.5
We have the Kansas City Chiefs finishing at 12-5, winning at least 12 games for the sixth straight year. Patrick Mahomes is still the league’s best quarterback, but he’s playing with the worst supporting cast of his career. Surprisingly, the Chiefs defense has been the catalyst behind the team’s 2023 success. Unless the offense can improve, it’s tough to see another deep playoff run from this unit.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans (3-5)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 6.5
We have the Tennessee Titans finishing at 7-10 in the division. Will Levis looks promising and should remain the starter ahead of Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season. Mike Vrabel is one of the NFL’s better head coaches, but the Titans’ offensive line and secondary are liabilities each week. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins are a volatile top two because of their ages.
Levis is very interesting in dynasty leagues given what we’ve seen through two games. We slightly lean toward Hopkins as a redraft buy after a disappointing Week 9 performance.
Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Preseason Win Total: 6.5
Current Win Total: 7.5
The Indianapolis Colts may be the biggest overachievers this season. We have them at 7-10 after winning against Carolina in Week 9. The Colts’ 7.5 win total (juiced to the over) is surprising to us, and we’d consider betting that as an under. Gardner Minshew is one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks, but he really shouldn’t be a team’s full-time starter. Indianapolis’ pass defense has also struggled mightily this season.
Jonathan Taylor is a great buy in redraft because his usage has returned to elite levels (18 carries and five targets in Week 9), but he’s still not valued as a top-six rest-of-season running back in most leagues.
Houston Texans (4-4)
Preseason Win Total: 6.5
Current Win Total: 8.5
We have the Houston Texans finishing the season at 7-10, though an 8-9 finish is also on the table. C.J. Stroud is the real deal, and he’s elevated a mediocre supporting cast all season — heading into 2023, there was a strong case to be made that the Texans had the NFL’s worst receiver room. Stroud looks the part of a franchise quarterback, and Houston’s defense has been serviceable all season. We bet the Texans over 5.5 wins before the NFL Draft and then didn’t touch this line once it increased to 6.5. We are not interested in 8.5 wins now.
While the Texans’ run game has been frustrating for fantasy purposes, the team has been one of the NFL’s most bankable passing attacks, with Stroud and two to three pass catchers being fantasy-relevant in many weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 11.5
We have the Jacksonville Jaguars finishing at 13-4, taking home the No. 1 seed in the AFC. While Jacksonville is realistically the seventh- to ninth-best team, its favorable schedule lends itself to a high win total.
Trevor Lawrence and this offense haven’t hit their highest potential yet, but the defense has been slightly better than advertised.
AFC East
New England Patriots (2-7)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 5.5
Bill Belichick has a long history of talent maximization, but this season’s New England Patriots may be the worst overall roster on paper. We have this group finishing at 5-12 after losing to the Commanders in Week 9. New England’s offense and defense were already thin to start the season, and both units have been ravaged by injuries.
Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end RB2-type), no Patriots players should be started each week in fantasy football.
New York Jets (4-4)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 8.5
We were both bullish on the New York Jets entering this season, and through nine weeks, we appear to be right. If Aaron Rodgers was healthy, this team would be a serious contender, but Zach Wilson unfortunately cannot keep the offense afloat, so a top three defense is getting wasted.
For fantasy football, Breece Hall is midrange RB1, while Garrett Wilson should flirt with fantasy WR2 status each week based on target volume, rather than efficiency.
Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Preseason Win Total: 10.5
Current Win Total: 9.5
We have the Buffalo Bills finishing 12-5, an ambitious figure given their schedule. Their 9.5 win total is one where we lean toward betting the over. Josh Allen has a decent supporting cast for the first time in several years, but the Bills’ defense has struggled with injuries.
Dalton Kincaid has surged in fantasy since Dawson Knox’s wrist surgery, and only Travis Kelce, Andrews and T.J. Hockenson appear to be poised for better second-half fantasy performances than Kincaid. Think of him similarly to Lions rookie Sam LaPorta.
Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 11.5
We have the Miami Dolphins finishing at 12-5, tied with the Bills atop the division. Through nine weeks, the Dolphins have gone 6-0 against opponents with losing records while dropping all three games against winning teams. Tua Tagovailoa’s offense has struggled out of structure, and Tyreek Hill has routinely been this team’s best overall offensive player. The defense recently brought back Jalen Ramsey and looks like one of the NFL’s better groups.
The defense may need to carry this team in the playoffs, unless Tagovailoa and company can begin stringing together successful drives against higher-end opponents.
The Dolphins face the Jets, Cowboys and Ravens in Weeks 15-17, so the floor of all Miami players will be quite low.
NFC North
Chicago Bears (2-7)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 5.5
We have the Chicago Bears finishing at 5-12. Tyson Bagent has been better than advertised, but he’s ultimately a backup quarterback. Justin Fields should return for Week 10, which raises the ceiling of this offense. We saw him shred several opponents prior to injury, and he’ll be playing for his future to close out 2023. The Bears own their first-round pick in addition to the Panthers’, so Fields has minimal job security right now.
This team should continue to put up a fight against most opponents, and the addition of Montez Sweat (from Washington) on the defensive line will continue to be a boon to what was a bottom-tier pass rush.
For fantasy purposes, Fields looks like the rest-of-season QB6, ahead of Tagovailoa.
Green Bay Packers (3-5)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 7.5
We have the Green Bay Packers finishing at 5-12 and would bet the under-7.5-wins if it wasn’t already juiced to -150. Ultimately, we have minimal confidence in Jordan Love for the rest of the season. After a hot start, he has cooled considerably and is at risk of being replaced in 2024. The Packers’ defense is the lone bright spot, and that unit will need to consistently hold opponents to under 20 points if Green Bay wants to reach eight wins.
Positively, Aaron Jones appears to be past the hamstring injury that hampered him over the past two months. He’ll be an every-week fantasy RB2 if he can get 15-20 touches in this offense.
Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Preseason Win Total: 8.5
Current Win Total: 8.5
After Kirk Cousins went down for the season, the Minnesota Vikings looked like they’d be a 6-11 team. However, Josh Dobbs elevates this group back into the eight-win range. While last year’s Vikings won 13 games, this team looked more complete prior to Cousins’ injury thanks to DC Brian Flores’ scheme. The Vikings were stingy against rushing attacks for most of the year and were just starting to become a competent unit against the pass, too.
With Dobbs, his rushing ability is the biggest concern for the fantasy pass-catchers. Cousins was playing the best football of his career, but pass volume played a major part in the fantasy relevance of Jordan Addison. Alexander Mattison has renewed life after Cam Akers’ second Achilles rupture.
Detroit Lions (6-2)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 11.5
Much like the Jaguars in the AFC, the Detroit Lions are in the mix for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, thanks to their schedule. We have them finishing 12-5 on the season, even though the offense has fallen off compared with last year’s fifth-ranked scoring unit.
The emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs in the past two weeks is a major positive, but the Lions still need more from second-year receiver Jameson Williams if they want to get back to their explosive ways from 2022.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (1-8)
Preseason Win Total: 4.5
Current Win Total: 3.5
The Arizona Cardinals wouldn’t win another game with Clayton Tune at quarterback. Fortunately, Kyler Murray should return in Week 10, and we expect the Cardinals to finish with a 4-13 record. Marquise Brown remains an excellent buy-low in fantasy because he’s averaged nine targets per game the past month but hasn’t topped 50 receiving yards since early October. Trey McBride looks like a discount Kincaid at tight end and should be valued similarly to Evan Engram moving forward.
Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Preseason Win Total: 6.5
Current Win Total: 7.5
We have the Los Angeles Rams reaching seven wins, but it wouldn’t surprise either of us if they ended at 6-11. Outside of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay’s play-calling, there is a clear lack of overall depth and talent on both sides of the ball.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should be started every time Stafford suits up, but no Rams players should be trusted anytime Brett Rypien draws a spot start.
Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 8.5
Current Win Total: 9.5
We bet on the Seattle Seahawks to go over 8.5 wins in March because the team had a solid roster combined with significant draft capital. The issue for this team has been last year’s surprise Pro-Bowler: Geno Smith. After a strong first month, he’s tossed six picks and taken 11 sacks over his past four games. The Week 9 loss to Baltimore demonstrated how low this offense’s floor can be on any given week.
The defense has played at or above expectation, and the running back and receiver rooms are top-notch. Several offensive line injuries have hampered Smith and this offense, and while we think they finish 9-8 with a playoff berth, it’s difficult to see this team moving forward in the playoffs without the 2022 version of Smith.
San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 10.5
Current Win Total: 11.5
We have the San Francisco 49ers finishing at 12-5 because this is one of the NFL’s most complete teams. The 49ers’ Week 9 bye couldn’t have come at a more opportune time, breaking up their three-game losing skid. The already-stout defense added DT Chase Young via trade with Washington, so QB Brock Purdy just needs to play relatively mistake-free football most weeks.
For fantasy, Christian McCaffrey looks like the most untouchable asset because he’s getting an outrageous workload every week. Hill’s reliance on Tagovailoa has docked him slightly, thrusting McCaffrey into overall No. 1 player territory.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (1-7)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: 4.5
We had the Carolina Panthers finishing 5-12 after an 0-6 start, assuming they’d beat the Colts in Week 9. Now, the lean is toward the Panthers’ under. The offense has been among the league’s worst, and this team must be regretting the decision to select Bryce Young ahead of Stroud. This team is without its 2024 first-round pick, and it will need Young to emerge as a franchise cornerstone to break this half-decade funk.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Preseason Win Total: 6.5
Current Win Total: 7.5
We have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finishing at 6-11, but the under is juiced to -150, so this is a situation we’re monitoring and line-shopping. Their solid defense was lit up by Stroud in Week 9, and while Baker Mayfield has met or exceeded expectations, it’s still wildly apparent how important a strong starting quarterback is in the NFL. This team may squeak into wild card consideration, but for its future, a high 2024 draft pick is in their best interest.
Despite our lack of enthusiasm for the offense, the consolidation is good for fantasy football. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White are the usual suspects each week, and all make decent trade targets if/when your league mate becomes frustrated by Mayfield’s inconsistency.
Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Preseason Win Total: 8.5
Current Win Total: 8.5
We have the Atlanta Falcons as a 8-9 team after losing to the Jaren Hall–Dobbs combination this past weekend. Atlanta remains one of the hardest teams to solve each week for fantasy football because coach Arthur Smith routinely leaves star rookie Bijan Robinson on the bench during red zone and goal line trips.
The Falcons’ defense held up well through seven weeks before back-to-back meltdowns against Levis’ Titans and Stroud’s Texans. This is a team to either pass on or bet against because there is also uncertainty at quarterback with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons provide us with a valuable team-building lesson because they’ve spent three successive top-eight picks on skill position players and still have a below-average offense because of the tandem of Ridder and Heinicke.
New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 9.5
We have the New Orleans Saints finishing 11-6, thanks to the league’s easiest schedule, so betting their over is at least interesting. This is a complete yet unexciting team. The offense is capable through the air and on the ground, and the defense is still a high-quality group.
Alvin Kamara is an elite fantasy running back, and Chris Olave is second to only A.J. Brown in receiving yards on the season.
NFC East
New York Giants (2-7)
Preseason Win Total: 7.5
Current Win Total: Off the board
With Jones’ ACL tear, the New York Giants could easily finish 2-15 and get the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The offense may be the worst group of the past decade, thanks to the quarterback situation, skill group and offensive line. The defense is fine, but it’ll need to hold opponents to single-digit points to keep this team in games.
Outside of Saquon Barkley, no Giants players can be trusted in fantasy. With DeVito at quarterback, Darren Waller can be dropped in shallower leagues now that he’s on IR (hamstring).
Washington Commanders (4-5)
Preseason Win Total: 6.5
Current Win Total: 6.5
We have the Washington Commanders at 6-11 now that they beat Atlanta in Week 8. Reynolds bet on Ron Rivera at 400-1 to win Coach of the Year because this team had just enough talent and the NFC is a much weaker conference.
However, now that the team traded away its two best players on the defensive line, it’s tough to place any bets on this team’s over. Sam Howell looks like he’s in the Minshew vein: an elite backup who shouldn’t be trusted to carry a team in the playoffs.
For fantasy, this is among the most frustrating teams. Howell is on pace to set the NFL record for drop-backs in a season, but the targets have been too spread out among Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel during most weeks.
Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
Preseason Win Total: 9.5
Current Win Total: 10.5
We have the Dallas Cowboys finishing at 12-5 once again, thanks to their pass attack and shutdown defense. Dak Prescott has surged while their run game has stalled, and CeeDee Lamb once again looks like a star. While the defense has lost key players such as CB Trevon Diggs due to injury, it’s still a top-flight unit.
For fantasy, we are assuming Lamb outscores Tony Pollard over the rest of the season. Pollard’s efficiency has been poor with the increased 2023 workload, and his real saving grace at this point is the bleak state of the running back position.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Preseason Win Total: 11.5
Current Win Total: 12.5
We have the Philadelphia Eagles finishing at 13-4, succumbing ever so slightly to a brutal second-half schedule. This is the best roster in the league because their tie-breaker over San Francisco is that Jalen Hurts is better than Purdy. Each week, we see the Eagles utilize adaptive play-calling, beating opponents on the ground or through the air, depending on what’s needed.
Super Bowl Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles over Cincinnati Bengals
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