Analysis
9/5/23
6 min read
Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 1 Projections Have Surprise QB1
Week 1 is so close you can taste it. I spent the offseason building a projection model using machine learning to better formulate opinions about which players to start in fantasy in a given week.
The 2023 NFL season is sure to bring many surprises, and as we learn what's new, these weekly projections will adjust accordingly.
Quarterbacks
| Team | Player | Att | Comp | Yds | TDs | Rush | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 30 | 20 | 215 | 2.0 | 10 | 65 | 0.5 | 26.0 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 41 | 27 | 318 | 2.3 | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | 25.1 | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 34 | 22 | 255 | 2.1 | 7 | 41 | 0.3 | 24.8 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts | 31 | 20 | 242 | 1.5 | 10 | 45 | 0.6 | 23.9 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Justin Herbert | 40 | 27 | 292 | 2.5 | 4 | 10 | 0.1 | 22.9 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow | 37 | 25 | 283 | 2.1 | 4 | 15 | 0.2 | 22.6 | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | Justin Fields | 30 | 19 | 209 | 1.5 | 8 | 55 | 0.4 | 22.4 | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | 38 | 25 | 274 | 1.9 | 3 | 15 | 0.3 | 22.2 | 8 |
| New York Giants | Daniel Jones | 32 | 21 | 221 | 1.4 | 7 | 43 | 0.5 | 21.5 | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | Russell Wilson | 34 | 22 | 249 | 1.9 | 4 | 22 | 0.2 | 21.2 | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | Geno Smith | 35 | 23 | 252 | 2.0 | 5 | 25 | 0.1 | 21.2 | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | Deshaun Watson | 32 | 21 | 233 | 1.6 | 6 | 35 | 0.3 | 20.9 | 12 |
| Miami Dolphins | Tua Tagovailoa | 35 | 23 | 272 | 2.1 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 20.6 | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | Kirk Cousins | 36 | 24 | 249 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 0.2 | 20.5 | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 36 | 24 | 254 | 2.0 | 2 | 10 | 0.2 | 20.4 | 15 |
| Detroit Lions | Jared Goff | 38 | 24 | 284 | 1.8 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 19.5 | 16 |
| New York Jets | Aaron Rodgers | 35 | 24 | 261 | 1.9 | 2 | 5 | 0.1 | 18.9 | 17 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Anthony Richardson | 27 | 16 | 172 | 1.2 | 6 | 44 | 0.3 | 18.2 | 18 |
| Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | 35 | 23 | 252 | 1.8 | 3 | 2 | 0.1 | 17.9 | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love | 31 | 20 | 228 | 1.5 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 17.4 | 20 |
| New Orleans Saints | Derek Carr | 33 | 20 | 239 | 1.7 | 1 | 6 | 0.1 | 17.4 | 21 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Kenny Pickett | 32 | 20 | 230 | 1.3 | 4 | 17 | 0.2 | 17.4 | 22 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Jimmy Garoppolo | 34 | 22 | 245 | 1.5 | 3 | 9 | 0.1 | 17.3 | 23 |
| Washington Commanders | Sam Howell | 29 | 17 | 206 | 1.4 | 4 | 25 | 0.1 | 17.3 | 24 |
| San Francisco 49ers | Brock Purdy | 30 | 21 | 231 | 1.4 | 2 | 3 | 0.1 | 16.1 | 25 |
| Houston Texans | CJ Stroud | 32 | 20 | 212 | 1.3 | 3 | 17 | 0.1 | 16.0 | 26 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Desmond Ridder | 28 | 18 | 188 | 1.3 | 4 | 20 | 0.2 | 15.9 | 27 |
| New England Patriots | Mac Jones | 30 | 20 | 210 | 1.5 | 4 | 9 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 28 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 32 | 18 | 206 | 1.6 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 29 |
| Tennessee Titans | Ryan Tannehill | 28 | 18 | 213 | 1.3 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 30 |
| Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | 32 | 20 | 210 | 1.2 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 31 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Clayton Tune | 31 | 18 | 193 | 0.9 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 32 |
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have the highest team total in what is projected to be a shootout for opening night. Patrick Mahomes had originally been ranked as the QB1, but given TE Travis Kelce’s status (doubtful), he falls just behind Lamar Jackson.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is the projected QB5. He led all active quarterbacks in attempts per game last season. Now with a completely healthy wide receiver core, the Los Angeles Chargers have the second-highest implied team total for Week 1.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is projected for 30 attempts, more than he had in any game in 2022. Reports say the Chicago Bears are hoping to pass more in 2023.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Targ. | Rcpt. | Rec. Yds | Rec. TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 8 | 102 | 0.8 | 19.4 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 8 | 94 | 0.7 | 18.7 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 7 | 100 | 0.6 | 17.8 | 3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 7 | 95 | 0.7 | 17.8 | 4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 7 | 89 | 0.7 | 17.1 | 5 |
| Chris Olave | 10 | 7 | 92 | 0.6 | 16.0 | 6 |
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 7 | 85 | 0.6 | 15.6 | 7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9 | 6 | 88 | 0.5 | 15.3 | 8 |
| Calvin Ridley | 10 | 7 | 87 | 0.5 | 15.3 | 9 |
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 6 | 85 | 0.6 | 14.7 | 10 |
| DK Metcalf | 9 | 6 | 76 | 0.6 | 14.3 | 11 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 6 | 75 | 0.6 | 14.2 | 12 |
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 6 | 73 | 0.6 | 14.0 | 13 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 5 | 72 | 0.6 | 14.0 | 14 |
| Christian Watson | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0.6 | 13.4 | 15 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 5 | 71 | 0.6 | 13.4 | 16 |
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 5 | 68 | 0.5 | 12.7 | 17 |
| Skyy Moore | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0.5 | 12.6 | 18 |
| Chris Godwin | 9 | 5 | 58 | 0.5 | 12.4 | 19 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 6 | 63 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 20 |
| Van Jefferson | 9 | 6 | 64 | 0.5 | 12.2 | 21 |
| DJ Moore | 8 | 5 | 67 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 22 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 5 | 64 | 0.5 | 11.9 | 23 |
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 5 | 67 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 24 |
| Mike Evans | 8 | 5 | 59 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 25 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 5 | 59 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 26 |
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 5 | 68 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 27 |
| Drake London | 8 | 5 | 63 | 0.5 | 11.6 | 28 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 5 | 61 | 0.5 | 11.5 | 29 |
| Jahan Dotson | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0.4 | 11.5 | 30 |
| Courtland Sutton | 9 | 5 | 62 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 31 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 5 | 62 | 0.3 | 11.0 | 32 |
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 4 | 48 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 33 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 7 | 4 | 57 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 34 |
| Gabe Davis | 7 | 4 | 59 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 35 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 5 | 58 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 36 |
| Treylon Burks | 7 | 4 | 51 | 0.4 | 10.0 | 37 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 38 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 4 | 52 | 0.3 | 9.7 | 39 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 4 | 58 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 40 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 41 |
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 5 | 53 | 0.2 | 9.1 | 42 |
| Zay Jones | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 43 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 44 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 45 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 46 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 47 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 3 | 42 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 48 |
| Quentin Johnston | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0.2 | 8.1 | 49 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0.2 | 7.9 | 50 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 4 | 42 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 51 |
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 3 | 44 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 52 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 53 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 54 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 55 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 56 |
| Alec Pierce | 5 | 3 | 42 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 57 |
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 58 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 59 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 60 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 61 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 4 | 46 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 62 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 63 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 3 | 34 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 64 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 65 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 66 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 67 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 68 |
| John Metchie III | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 69 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 70 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 71 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 72 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 73 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 74 |
| Ben Skowronek | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 75 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 76 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 77 |
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 78 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 79 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 80 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
My model projected the Detroit Lions as the fifth-highest-scoring offense in 2023. With Jameson Williams suspended, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected to lead all wide receivers in targets in Week 1 with 12, finishing just behind Justin Jefferson in fantasy points.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
With Cooper Kupp sidelined due to a hamstring injury, Van Jefferson’s target share skyrockets about 10 percent, putting him with nine targets and 12.2 fantasy points, finishing as the WR20.
Dynamic Duos
The Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill (WR3) and Jaylen Waddle (WR8) are expected to finish in the top 12.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' Calvin Ridley (WR9) and Christian Kirk (WR19) are expected to finish in the top 24.
The Philadelphia Eagles' A.J. Brown (WR10) and DaVonte Smith (WR23) are expected to finish in the top 24.
Running Backs
| Name | Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | Targ. | Rcpt. | Rec. Yds | Rec. TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 73 | 0.6 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0.3 | 18.1 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 75 | 0.7 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 17.8 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 56 | 0.7 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 0.3 | 17.4 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 88 | 0.7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0.1 | 17.4 | 4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 84 | 0.7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.2 | 16.9 | 5 |
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 78 | 0.8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0.1 | 15.6 | 6 |
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 60 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0.3 | 14.4 | 7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 61 | 0.3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 0.1 | 13.8 | 8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 62 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 9 |
| David Montgomery | 13 | 52 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 10 |
| Najee Harris | 15 | 61 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 13.3 | 11 |
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 66 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 12 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 13 | 55 | 0.9 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 13 |
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 53 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.2 | 13.1 | 14 |
| Cam Akers | 11 | 48 | 0.6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0.2 | 12.9 | 15 |
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 51 | 0.4 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0.1 | 12.9 | 16 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 50 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.2 | 12.9 | 17 |
| James Conner | 14 | 57 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 18 |
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 60 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 19 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 38 | 0.4 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 20 |
| Alexander Mattison | 15 | 64 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 21 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 10 | 45 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0.2 | 12.6 | 22 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 50 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 0.2 | 12.6 | 23 |
| Rachaad White | 13 | 49 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0.2 | 12.5 | 24 |
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 59 | 0.5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 25 |
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 65 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 12.2 | 26 |
| Samaje Perine | 10 | 42 | 0.3 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 27 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 15 | 60 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 28 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 38 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 11.8 | 29 |
| James Cook | 8 | 40 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 0.2 | 11.3 | 30 |
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 46 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 10.7 | 31 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 67 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 32 |
| Khalil Herbert | 11 | 54 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 33 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 44 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 34 |
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 45 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 35 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 33 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.2 | 8.6 | 36 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 39 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.0 | 8.6 | 37 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 37 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 38 |
| Zack Moss | 10 | 46 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 39 |
| Rashaad Penny | 12 | 50 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 40 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 46 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 41 |
| Damien Harris | 8 | 37 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 42 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 12 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 43 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 8 | 42 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 44 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 8 | 41 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 45 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 19 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 46 |
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 40 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 47 |
| Deon Jackson | 8 | 30 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 48 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 30 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 49 |
| Evan Hull | 8 | 32 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 50 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | 6 | 23 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 51 |
| Devon Achane | 7 | 32 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 52 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 30 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 53 |
| Roschon Johnson | 7 | 31 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 54 |
| Chris Evans | 4 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 55 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 25 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 56 |
| Ty Chandler | 6 | 23 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 5.8 | 57 |
| Sean Tucker | 5 | 21 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 58 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 14 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 59 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 0 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 60 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 8 | 32 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 61 |
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson figures to have a heavy workload for the Atlanta Falcons given his draft capital. He is projected as the RB2 for Week 1.
Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
This is the only duo with both ball carriers projected in the top 24. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected for receiving work (four receptions, eight rushes), while David Montgomery is projected for rushing work (two receptions, 13 rushes). Montgomery’s rushing role is expected to look similar to Jamaal Williams’ last season.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs is projected for the sixth-most running back touches in Week 1 but still is expected to finish outside of the top 12 due to inefficiency. The season-long projections have him finishing outside the top 12 running backs given his 2022 usage and the dropoff that happens the next season.
Tight Ends
| Name | Targ. | Rcpt. | Rec. Yds | Rec. TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| T.J. Hockenson | 9 | 6 | 56 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 5 | 58 | 0.7 | 12.3 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 8 | 6 | 62 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 5 | 57 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 4 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 5 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 4 | 56 | 0.3 | 9.4 | 6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 6 | 4 | 47 | 0.4 | 9.3 | 7 |
| Greg Dulcich | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 8 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 5 | 41 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 9 |
| David Njoku | 6 | 4 | 38 | 0.4 | 8.1 | 10 |
| Noah Gray | 6 | 4 | 47 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 11 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 12 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 13 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 14 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 15 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 16 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 4 | 38 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 17 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 18 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 19 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 20 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 21 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 22 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5 | 3 | 33 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 23 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 24 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 25 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 3 | 24 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 26 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 27 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 28 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 29 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 30 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 31 |
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Like Jefferson, Tyler Higbee’s usage is expected to skyrocket 10 percent with Kupp out for the Rams. Higbee projects as the TE4 with eight targets.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Greg Dulcich projects as the TE9 and to have six targets for the Denver Broncos with WR Jerry Jeudy expected to miss Week 1.
Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs
Originally ranked outside the top 30, Noah Gray’s projection skyrockets with three increased targets because Kelce likely will miss Week 1.
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