Fantasy
1/29/24
4 min read
2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Senior Bowl Preview
The Senior Bowl kicks off this week, and it always includes relevant rookie prospects. Those prospects can positively and negatively affect their draft stock at this event, and this year is no different.
I’ve listed five rookie prospects who are expected to have significant draft capital in the upcoming draft and will be in attendance at the Senior Bowl. Keeping an eye on how they perform can help determine how relevant they will be this May in dynasty rookie drafts.
Dynasty Senior Bowl Prospects
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Of all the skill position seniors attending the Senior Bowl, Michael Penix Jr. holds the highest expected draft capital with GrindingTheMocks.com. He has a 12.2 EDP, good for the 11th highest in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Penix completed a very solid season in what was his sixth season of college football, posting 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a 6.5 passing percent touchdown rate.
Unfortunately, as a prospect, sixth-year-senior quarterbacks don’t typically fare well, as Brandon Weeden is the only first-round quarterback to play in at least their sixth year of college football. That doesn’t mean Penix isn’t a first-round quarterback, but the floor is a bit worrisome without rushing production on his side.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Bo Nix is one of the bigger mysteries of the draft, which creates a wider range of outcomes for him. He averaged 6.3 rush points per game during his collegiate career, with an 18.4 percent carry percentage and 0.72 yards per team rush attempt.
If that level of rusher at the quarterback position gets first-round draft capital, it makes them more intriguing. Since 2006, 57.1 percent of Konami quarterbacks drafted in the first round have posted at least a 20-point per game season, regardless of their passing profile. It might not be “likely” for Nix to be a first-round quarterback, but it’s not out of the question.
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
Xavier Legette was awesome for South Carolina this past season, posting 19.8 fantasy points per game on the back of a 23.3 percent target share and 3.05 yards per team pass attempt. But this level of production came out of nowhere. Legette hadn’t posted 5.0 points per game prior to this past season, which was his fifth year in college football.
That doesn’t bode well in terms of being a safe prospect. But with solid draft capital attached, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside. Since 2006, of all late declares to get drafted in the first two rounds at the wide receiver position, 28.6 percent have posted at least a 16.0 point per game season, while 21.4 percent have posted at least an 18.0 point per game season.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Ladd McConkey is a productive player when on the field, having never posted a yards per route run below 2.00 in his collegiate career. He even posted 3.26 yards per route run in his most recent season at Georgia.
Unfortunately, we only got to see McConkey in a full-time role for one season, his junior season, but it resulted in a career-high 13.4 points per game and a career-high 16.6 percent target share.
While he still isn’t a highly regarded prospect in this upcoming class, if the NFL likes him enough to invest significant draft capital into him, which seems likely at this point, there is plenty of upside with his profile.
Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina
Devontez Walker was a productive player at Kent State before he transferred to North Carolina for his senior season, where he remained a productive player. This past season, he posted 19.4 points per game on the back of an efficient 2.47 yards per team pass attempt and 2.28 yards per route run.
He was the near leading receiver on this Drake Maye-led offense, only trailing by 12 yards, despite playing in five fewer games.
His production remaining strong despite transferring to tougher competition is a major reason he’s expected to have fringe second-round draft capital.
