Analysis
11/5/22
6 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
I provide in-depth analysis on every game, every week from a betting perspective. You can find all of those articles and a short summary for each game right here. The links for each game will bring you to that contest’s matchup article.
Dolphins at Bears
Opening Spread: Bears +4.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Bears (20), Dolphins (24.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Justin Fields and the Bears offense have exceeded expectations in back-to-back games against two high-end defenses in the Patriots and Cowboys. Miami has a dangerous offense that can beat you in multiple ways, which is a problem for a Bears defense that has recently traded two of their four best defenders. I’m considering Miami -4 as an ATS tournament entry this weekend.
Bills at Jets
Opening Spread: Jets +13
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Jets (17.25), Bills (30.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Bills high-end defense are double-digit road favorites at the 5-3 Jets. Buffalo has scored 27 or fewer points in four of their last five games. If you’re betting on the Jets in this spot, you’re either going to need that trend to continue or you’re going to need Zach Wilson’s offense to at least meet expectations while facing the Bills premium pass rush. I bet on Wilson’s over 32.5 completions in this game on our Friday Player Prop Happy Hour Show.
Packers at Lions
Opening Spread: Lions +3.5
Opening Game Total: 49
Opening Team Totals: Lions (22.75), Packers (26.25)
Weather: Dome
The Packers are now in desperation mode as the NFC North now belongs to the Vikings. Green Bay can only afford a few more losses the rest of the way to get in as a Wild Card. The Lions league-worst defense represents the best chance the Packers have of getting right on offense.
Chargers at Falcons
Opening Spread: Falcons +3
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (22.75), Chargers (25.75)
Weather: Dome
Entering the season I viewed this as an appealing matchup for the Chargers in survivor pools. Now? Atlanta’s run-heavy offense has a shot at knocking off the injury-ravaged Chargers. Cordarrelle Patterson will be active after missing four weeks, which will be an unexpected benefit to the Falcons. A Chargers bet is built around Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler carrying this offense, which they are capable of. As things stand now, I am debating taking the Falcons +3.5 due to Los Angeles having so many key injuries.
Panthers at Bengals
Opening Spread: Bengals -8.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25.75), Panthers (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
Chris Farley and I discussed this game on Betting the NFL on Monday. We both have interest in the Bengals in a bounce back spot against a Panthers team that just suffered an emotional overtime loss in Atlanta last week. I’m going to take the Bengals -7.5 this week and I will play them in at least one of my remaining survivor pool entries.
Raiders at Jaguars
Opening Spread: Jaguars +1
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.75), Raiders (23.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
My decision on this game is going to come down to the wire. I have an interest in the Raiders in a bounce back spot after they were shut out in New Orleans last week. Additionally, Jacksonville has been unable to finish games while the Raiders, apart from last week, have lost a number of one score games to quality opponents. On the other side, I don’t trust the Raiders and Jacksonville’s front four has an edge in the trenches this week. I still lean Raiders, but I haven’t pulled the trigger on it yet.
Vikings at Commanders
Opening Spread: Commanders +3.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (20.5), Vikings (24)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
When I first saw this game I liked the Commanders side. Since Washington is the team I’ve had the worst read on this season, I approached this game differently from a process standpoint. I started by trying to talk myself out of a Commanders bet. I was able to get there from a football standpoint, which I explain in this matchup article. While I’m going to pass on this game against the spread, Josh Larky and I both like the over here as we discussed on his Friday Fantasy World show.
Colts at Patriots
Opening Spread: Patriots -6
Opening Game Total: 39.5
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (22.75), Colts (16.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
I’m not sure this Patriots team should be giving anyone six points, but I couldn’t imagine betting on Sam Ehlinger in a road game against Bill Belichick. Patriots Edge Mathew Judon is tied for the league lead in sacks and he could wreak havoc against the Colts' offensive tackles, who have been an issue all season. I don’t normally bet on things like this, but I bet on Sam Ehlinger to not have a touchdown pass at +195 odds.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Opening Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (26), Seahawks (23.5)
Weather: Dome
Another game Chris and I discussed on Monday was this one, where we both seemed to lean toward the Cardinals side. The Cardinals are the second team I’m going to definitely play in my main tournament entry this week. I’m also going to get exposure to this contest in DFS from a variety of angles.
Rams at Buccaneers
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (22.5), Rams (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Similar to the Ravens game last Thursday, I liked Tampa Bay until I got through the injury report. Now I’m far more neutral on this contest, as I originally intended to bet on the Bucs' pass rush, which will be down their best player in this contest. I’d still lean Tampa Bay when picking every game, but I don’t think they’ll make my top five now.
SNF: Titans at Chiefs
Ryan Tannehill is considered a game-time decision, which muddies this game from both a betting and showdown perspective. In general, the Chiefs front has a trench advantage against the Titans bottom tier line. The Titans consistent ability to overachieve throughout the Mike Vrabel era is the only real concern you have from the Chiefs end from a football perspective. That said, 12.5 points is a lot to lay, which is going to make this one a pass for me.
MNF: Ravens at Saints
Mark Andrews injury status is a big one here, as Lamar Jackson might have the league’s worst supporting cast if Andrews misses this contest. The Saints have a well-built roster, and Andy Dalton has brought more consistency at quarterback than anyone else for New Orleans since Drew Brees retired two years ago. The Saints have some key players with uncertain injury statuses as well, which we’ll get into once this preview goes live on Sunday.
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