Betting
11/4/22
7 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Panthers vs. Bengals
Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)
Opening Spread: Bengals -8.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25.75), Panthers (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Bengals -8 and Bengals -8.5.
- This line has moved down to Bengals -7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals -7.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Bengals: Out: WR Ja’Marr Chase, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie. Questionable: RT La’El Collins, DT Josh Tupou, CB Eli Apple.
Panthers: Out: C Pat Elflein, S Jeremy Chinn. Questionable: RB Chuba Hubbard, CB Donte Jackson, CB Jaycee Horn.
The Bengals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
The Bengals offensive line continues to struggle, as the Browns sacked Joe Burrow five times last week. The Panthers have an average front four that is headlined by talented Edge Brian Burns. There’s no significant trench advantage here from a macro sense, but Burns has an individual matchup edge.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 2-5-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 20-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 16-16-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 30-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 25-30-2 on overs as an NFL head coach.
Bengals Offense
- The Bengals are scoring 23.3 points per game, tied for 12th in the league.
- Cincinnati is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Joe Mixon is 27th in yards rushing per game and ninth in yards receiving per game.
- Mixon often sees usage spikes coming off games where the Bengals offensive line struggled like they did last Monday night in Cleveland.
- Tee Higgins has a 16.8% target share and a 26% air yards share.
- Tyler Boyd has a 14.1% target share and a 20.9% air yards share.
- Hayden Hurst has a 14.1% target share and a 9.4% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Tee Higgins has played 263 snaps on the perimeter and 71 in the slot.
- Tyler Boyd leads the league in snaps in the slot with 355. Boyd has played 69 snaps on the perimeter.
Panthers Defense
- The Panthers have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the eighth most yards rushing per game and the 15th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has given up the 11th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Carolina has given up the eighth most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Panthers have allowed the 19th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Panthers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Panthers have a slightly below-average offensive line, while the Bengals front is in the same general tier. Neither side has a macro advantage in the trenches, but Bengals Edge Trey Hendrickson will be a challenge for either Panthers offensive tackle.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 3-5 on overs this season.
- PJ Walker is 5-8 against the spread in his career.
- PJ Walker is 6-7 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 9-9-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Steve Wilks is 8-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Panthers Offense
- The Panthers are scoring 19.8 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Carolina is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- P.J. Walker has been better than expected in each of his last two games.
- Per the Edge, D’Onta Foreman has run for 118 yards rushing in each of the last two games.
- D.J. Moore has double-digit targets in each of the last two games. He’s had at least seven in each of the last five.
- Terrace Marshall had a nine-target usage spike last week.
Bengals Defense
- The Bengals have allowed 20.5 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 18th most yards rushing per game and the 27th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 22nd most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the 16th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bengals vs. Panthers
The Bengals are in an obvious correction spot, having been blown out by the Browns last Monday night. Steve Wilks’ Panthers have been much better than expected over the past two weeks. They first upset the Buccaneers 21-3, before losing to the Falcons 37-34 in overtime last week. Given the theatrics of the D.J. Moore penalty that came after P.J. Walker’s throw of the year to improbably tie the game late against Atlanta, the Panthers are coming off an abnormally emotional game that went to overtime.
If you’re betting on the Bengals, you’re betting on the defending AFC champs in an obvious correction spot against a Panthers team in a classic letdown spot. The Bengals will be down star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, which reduces the ceiling of this elite offense. But you’re still getting Joe Burrow with an above-average supporting cast even without Chase. Cincinnati’s defense had a bad outing in Cleveland last week, but they’ve been otherwise better than most expected this season. A bet on the Bengals can be a bet against P.J. Walker. Your biggest concern with a Bengals bet is that their offensive line continues to struggle in a game where you need them to beat the Panthers by at least eight points.
A bet on the Panthers is a bet on this team continuing to overachieve since Steve Wilks took over as head coach. Carolina has continued to play hard despite upper management’s decision to trade Christian McCaffrey and thus waive the white flag on the season. Tons of credit to Wilks for keeping this team together. If you’re betting on Carolina you are betting on a volatile offense headlined by a third-string quarterback in P.J. Walker. The Panthers have scored 55-points over the past two weeks with Walker, showing some unexpected ceiling against the Falcons last week. If you’re betting on the Panthers you are betting on their scrappy defense that held Tom Brady’s offense to three points two weeks ago. Your biggest concern is that the Panthers are inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Your second biggest worry with a Panthers bet is that you’re getting Joe Burrow in an obvious bounce-back spot.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Bengals in all of my winner pools and I’ll have them in the top four in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: As of right now I intend to take the Bengals -7.5 in my main ATS tournament entry.
Survivor Pool: I already took the Eagles in my main survivor pool, primarily because I already used Cincinnati in that entry. In general, the Bengals are my preferred option in survivor pools, as this is the best matchup left on their schedule.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Trouble in the Jungle? Bengals Clearly Missing Chase
