Betting
2/13/23
5 min read
Estimated 2024 Super Bowl Odds For Teams Landing Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson
Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson rumors are swirling, and Super Bowl odds are estimated for the popular suitors, should they successfully land one of these two quarterbacks. Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds estimate the odds for the teams involved in the rumors, should they land either one of the former league MVPs (implied probability in parenthesis):
Aaron Rodgers
New York Jets
Estimated Odds: +1000 (9.1%)
Josh Larky: The New York Jets already have a top-5 defense, so adding Rodgers would vault them to the top of the division. They have a young offensive line, along with skill position stars in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. The Buffalo Bills' roster has declined since 2021, and the Jets would be well set up for 11-13 wins next season with Rodgers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Estimated Odds: +2000 (4.8%)
Larky: Pairing Rodgers with Davante Adams and Darren Waller makes my mouth water for fantasy football, but this would remain a flawed team, lacking offensive line and defensive talent. They also play in the NFL's toughest division. Even still, reuniting Rodgers with Adams would surely cause the Las Vegas Raiders' Super Bowl odds to surge.
Green Bay Packers
Estimated Odds: +1750 (5.4%)
Larky: The Green Bay Packers should once again catapult to the clear division favorite if Rodgers remains in town. The defense still has solid pieces, and Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs should both take steps forward in the receiving game in their sophomore campaigns.
Miami Dolphins
Estimated Odds: +1000 (9.1%)
Larky: The Miami Dolphins' front office is desperate for playoff success, and Tua Tagovailoa's health remains in a delicate balance. Rodgers throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is tantalizing enough the Dolphins may try to make this a reality. They'd leapfrog to the division favorite, like the Jets. If Tagovailoa could have one of the most efficient passing seasons of the past few years, then Rodgers could showcase historic efficiency and raw numbers in this system.
Ryan Reynolds: If Rodgers is traded to the Jets or the Dolphins, both of those teams are instantly capable of beating anyone. My only concern there with a Super Bowl bet is the AFC being filled with premium quarterbacks supported by talented rosters. When division winner odds are released, the Jets and Dolphins will be among the first teams I look for.
If Rodgers is traded to Vegas I’ll be interested in him in best ball, but I don’t think the Raiders have the roster to get through an absolutely loaded AFC. The easiest path to the Super Bowl is through the NFC. If Rodgers stays in Green Bay and the Packers supply him with a premium wide receiver, like DeAndre Hopkins, they are a top-3 option in the conference. That’s a nice thought, but even if Rodgers returns I have little to no confidence in Green Bay’s ability to get Rodgers a premium pass catcher to pair with Watson.
Lamar Jackson
New York Jets
Estimated Odds: +1500 (6.3%)
Larky: The Jets would rank among the best defenses Jackson has ever played with, and the Jets' skill position group is far better than anything he ever had in Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens
Estimated Odds: +2000 (4.8%)
Larky: The Baltimore Ravens' current odds are around this number, and it feels like Jackson staying in Baltimore is already priced into their 2024 Super Bowl odds.
Carolina Panthers
Estimated Odds: +2500 (3.9%)
Larky: The NFC South is the league's weakest division, and Jackson heading to the Carolina Panthers — a team desperate to make the playoffs — would instantly catapult them to division favorites. They have a young defense with a few talented pieces, but I'd prefer looking at Carolina to win the division should Jackson land here.
Atlanta Falcons
Estimated Odds: +2500 (3.9%)
Larky: Like with Carolina, the main appeal is the weak NFC South division. The Atlanta Falcons' offense was surprisingly effective with Marcus Mariota last season, and the defense has a couple of intriguing young players. Jackson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts in the same offense would make the Falcons must-watch every Sunday.
Reynolds: I have little to no interest in betting on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl. The other premium quarterbacks in the AFC have a much better-supporting cast on offense. If Jackson was traded to the Jets, he’d get a roster upgrade that would increase his chances of getting through the loaded AFC.
The NFC South is wide open, to the point that a Jackson trade to any of those teams would put them in the driver’s seat in the division for several years. The Panthers and Falcons wouldn’t become bona fide Super Bowl contenders with a Jackson trade, but they wouldn’t be cross-offs, either.
