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Super Bowl LVII Player Props to Target

25 min Watch

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolby provide you with eight Super Bowl player props to take ahead of next Sunday’s Eagles-Chiefs matchup. For each line, they provide their detailed reasoning behind betting on the specific prop.

The implied probabilities are included along with the odds to make the mathematical intuition easier. If a prop has odds of -110, this implies it should hit 52.4% of the time. So, if we take a -110 prop, we expect it to hit more often than 52.4%.

Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions – Ryan Reynolds

Odds: -125 (55.6%) on BetMGM

  • Patrick Mahomes has been over in 11 of 19 games
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league
  • I expect more short throws to help manage pressure, given the state of Mahomes’ ankle
  • The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in below-average matchups, so lay-up passes should be heavily featured

 

Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Completions – Josh Larky

Odds: +102 (49.5%) on FanDuel

  • Jalen Hurts was over this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup
  • Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year
    • That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9
  • In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was over against Kansas City
  • The only QBs under this number were:

Hurts Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards – Ben Wolby

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings

  • Last week, I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards
    • Burrow had rushes of 11 and 14 yards against the Chiefs last week
  • Quarterbacks rush against Kansas City at the third-highest rate this year, and they’re fairly efficient in doing so
  • The Chiefs allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to QBs, the second-most in the NFL
  • Hurts’ rush attempts line is 10.5, and he’s averaging 10 non-kneel-downs per game
  • Hurts is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards and had 11 in the regular season
    • But, including the playoffs and looking at a per-game basis (he missed time), he’s averaging just less than one per game but is fourth on a per-game basis
  • Hurts had a run of 14 yards last week against the 49ers, the second-best rush DVOA team in the NFL (the Chiefs are 15th), which came in the third quarter when up by two TDs

Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing – Wolby

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on BetMGM

  • If you’ve followed along this season, you know I love taking Miles Sanders overs against bottom-tier rush DVOA teams
    • The Chiefs are ranked 15th but have been the second-worst through the playoffs among playoff teams
  • Last week, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon combined for just 40 yards rushing, but Travis Etienne had 62 yards rushing on just ten carries the week prior
  • In games that Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76 yards rushing per game and is over in nine of 15
    • Three of those six losses were against top-10 rush DVOA teams

Jerick McKinnon Under 21.5 Yards Rushing – Larky

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings

 

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer yards rushing in four of his past five games
  • McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously

McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards – Larky

Odds: -105 (51.2%) on DraftKings

  • Only seven of his 87 carries this year were over this number
    • That’s just one in 12.4 carries over this number for McKinnon
  • Only one of his past five games was more than five carries
  • Eleven carries is the most he’s had in any game this season
  • He’s averaged 1.8 yards per carry during his past five games
  • Edwards-Helaire may be activated ahead of this game, stealing carries from McKinnon
  • The Eagles’ run defense is roughly league-average during the past two months

Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Yards Receiving – Reynolds

Odds: -114 (53.3%) on FanDuel

Mahomes Under 20.5 Yards Rushing – Josh Larky

Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings

  • Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl
    • Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
  • Mahomes was under this number in nine of 19 games this year.
  • Mahomes averaged 21 yards rushing per game during the regular season when fully healthy
  • This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue
  • In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest

We hope you enjoyed reading through these eight Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

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Analysis

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith Will Be ‘Difference-Maker’ in Super Bowl LVII

Former All-Pro Running Back

1 min Watch

Chris Johnson was known for explosive plays throughout his NFL career. The former Titans running back thinks Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith could be a difference-maker against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII.

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Betting

Early Super Bowl LVII Betting Advice

4 min Watch

Tank Williams gives us his early look at betting on the Super Bowl. Williams is confident with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs’ high-powered offenses, the Over is the safe bet.

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Video

Will Eagles or Chiefs’ Defense Step Up to Win Super Bowl LVII?

Hall of Fame Safety

1 min Watch

The upcoming Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles features two impressive offenses. Ed Reed acknowledges that Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, will play a major factor in the Super Bowl, but Reed stands by the old adage, “defense wins championships.”

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Betting

5 Early Player Props to Bet in Super Bowl LVII

24 min Watch

While the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs don’t play for 13 more days, I’ve already found five Super Bowl player props I have put my money on. I expect these lines to move as the game draws closer, and I outline the logical/statistical case for each bet.

Along with the betting odds and sportsbook, I’ll provide the implied probability, too. If I’m taking a -115 bet, I’m expecting it to hit more often than the implied probability of 53.5%.

Jerick McKinnon UNDER 23.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings and BetMGM

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has only beat this number once in the past five games, when he carried 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league average the past two months.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.
  • This line is already down to 20.5 rushing yards at FanDuel.

DeVonta Smith OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings and BetMGM

  • DeVonta Smith has been OVER this number in 10 of his past 18 games (56%).
  • While Smith has been UNDER this number each of the past two games, the Eagles won by at least 24 points in both playoff games.
    • I would be completely shocked if the Eagles blew out the Chiefs, as the Chiefs haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.
  • Smith finished the 2022 NFL season on an absolute tear:
    • From Weeks 10-18, Smith averaged 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 83.8 receiving yards per game.
    • He was OVER this number in seven of those nine weeks prior to the playoffs.

Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings

  • Travis Kelce was OVER this number in 11 of 19 games (58%).
  • Kelce has been OVER this number in his past eight playoff games.
  • The Eagles are an elite pass defense overall, but they do allow a significant portion of receiving yards to go to TEs. Using our flagship tool, The Edge, I calculated the percentage of a team’s WR/TE receiving yards that came from TEs.
    • 26.6% of total receiving yardage from the WR/TE position came from TEs when facing the Eagles, the tenth highest figure this season.
  • Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are both questionable to play in the Super Bowl, so Kelce may be counted on even more than usual for this matchup.

 

Patrick Mahomes MOST Passing Yards in the Game

Odds: -220 (68.8%) on FanDuel

  • I don’t usually like betting on anything with so much juice, but mathematically, I like this play.
  • The included sample I used for this analysis was Patrick Mahomes’ 19 games and Jalen Hurts’ 17 games from the 2022 season/playoffs.
  • Running 100,000 simulations, I would randomly grab one pass yards game log from Mahomes and one from Hurts.
    • 72.9% of the time, Mahomes’ pass yards number was higher than Hurts’ number, which is better than the 68.8% implied probability of -220 odds.
  • During the regular season, Mahomes attempted 38.1 passes per game, while Hurts attempted just 30.7 passes per game.
  • During the regular season, the Eagles defense allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt, while the Chiefs defense was close behind, at 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
  • It’s tough to envision the Chiefs leaning on a running back room that’s averaging just 4.1 yards per carry over their past five games.
  • While the Eagles boast arguably the NFL’s top pass defense, Mahomes is the one QB that’s truly matchup-proof:
    • He threw for 338 yards against Buffalo, 423 yards against the 49ers, 329 yards against the Chargers, at least 328 yards in both games against the Broncos, and 326 yards against the Bengals (last week).
    • These are all top-12 pass defenses according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Skyy Moore Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +950 (10.5%) on PointsBet

  • Skyy Moore ran 29 routes in the Conference Championship game, with both Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney exiting early with injuries.
    • It’s too early in the week to speculate on their exact injury statuses for the Super Bowl, but neither is a guarantee to suit up.
  • Moore was targeted seven times on his 29 routes, and his targets per route run rate of 24% is very strong.
  • +950 odds for potentially a starting Chiefs WR is simply too good to pass up at this stage.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these five Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.

WATCH: Championship Review, Super Bowl Preview

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