Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolby provide you with eight Super Bowl player props to take ahead of next Sunday’s Eagles-Chiefs matchup. For each line, they provide their detailed reasoning behind betting on the specific prop.
The implied probabilities are included along with the odds to make the mathematical intuition easier. If a prop has odds of -110, this implies it should hit 52.4% of the time. So, if we take a -110 prop, we expect it to hit more often than 52.4%.
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions – Ryan Reynolds
Odds: -125 (55.6%) on BetMGM
- Patrick Mahomes has been over in 11 of 19 games
- The Kansas City Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league
- I expect more short throws to help manage pressure, given the state of Mahomes’ ankle
- The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in below-average matchups, so lay-up passes should be heavily featured
Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Completions – Josh Larky
Odds: +102 (49.5%) on FanDuel
- Jalen Hurts was over this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup
- Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year
- That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9
- In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was over against Kansas City
- The only QBs under this number were:
- Derek Carr for Las Vegas in Week 5
- Willis for Tennessee in Week 9
- Bryce Perkins for the Rams in Week 12
- Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel for Houston in Week 15
Hurts Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards – Ben Wolby
Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings
- Last week, I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards
- Burrow had rushes of 11 and 14 yards against the Chiefs last week
- Quarterbacks rush against Kansas City at the third-highest rate this year, and they’re fairly efficient in doing so
- The Chiefs allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to QBs, the second-most in the NFL
- Hurts’ rush attempts line is 10.5, and he’s averaging 10 non-kneel-downs per game
- Hurts is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards and had 11 in the regular season
- But, including the playoffs and looking at a per-game basis (he missed time), he’s averaging just less than one per game but is fourth on a per-game basis
- Hurts had a run of 14 yards last week against the 49ers, the second-best rush DVOA team in the NFL (the Chiefs are 15th), which came in the third quarter when up by two TDs
Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing – Wolby
Odds: -115 (53.5%) on BetMGM
- If you’ve followed along this season, you know I love taking Miles Sanders overs against bottom-tier rush DVOA teams
- The Chiefs are ranked 15th but have been the second-worst through the playoffs among playoff teams
- Last week, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon combined for just 40 yards rushing, but Travis Etienne had 62 yards rushing on just ten carries the week prior
- In games that Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76 yards rushing per game and is over in nine of 15
- Three of those six losses were against top-10 rush DVOA teams
Jerick McKinnon Under 21.5 Yards Rushing – Larky
Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings
- Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games
- McKinnon has seven or fewer yards rushing in four of his past five games
- McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville
- McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games
- The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks
- Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously
McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards – Larky
Odds: -105 (51.2%) on DraftKings
- Only seven of his 87 carries this year were over this number
- That’s just one in 12.4 carries over this number for McKinnon
- Only one of his past five games was more than five carries
- Eleven carries is the most he’s had in any game this season
- He’s averaged 1.8 yards per carry during his past five games
- Edwards-Helaire may be activated ahead of this game, stealing carries from McKinnon
- The Eagles’ run defense is roughly league-average during the past two months
Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Yards Receiving – Reynolds
Odds: -114 (53.3%) on FanDuel
- The Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points to tight ends in the slot via The Edge
- Dallas Goedert plays about 29% of his snaps in the slot
- He’s beaten this number in nine of 14 games
- George Kittle had 98 yards against the Chiefs
- Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich both broke 40 yards, as well
Mahomes Under 20.5 Yards Rushing – Josh Larky
Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings
- Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl
- Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
- Mahomes was under this number in nine of 19 games this year.
- Mahomes averaged 21 yards rushing per game during the regular season when fully healthy
- This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue
- In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest
We hope you enjoyed reading through these eight Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.