Analysis
9/28/23
11 min read
2023 NFL Week 4: Expert Picks, Predictions for Every Game
Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. It’s still early in the season, but we learn a little more about who each team is every week. An important question entering Week 4: Who is overvalued, and who is undervalued?
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Thursday Night Football
Lions at Packers
Spread: Packers +1.5
Total: 46
Both teams have several difference-makers on the injury report, especially on their offensive lines. The Detroit Lions have become a tough, rock-solid football team. Detroit’s defense has carried the team to both of its wins so far this season. Jared Goff’s offense scored 31 points in the Lions’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks but has been otherwise underwhelming. The Lions are 2-1, but they have not yet played a ceiling game this year.
Jordan Love has been good despite being without his best receiver through the first three games. Love’s offense isn’t a liability, but we shouldn’t count on that group to go out and win games on its own. Much like Detroit, the Green Bay Packers’ defense is the primary reason they are 2-1. Expect another close, physical game as these rivals play for the early lead in the NFC North.
Score Prediction: Lions 20, Packers 17
Sunday Morning Game
Falcons at Jaguars (in London)
Spread: Jaguars -3
Total: 43
Both teams suffered ugly losses in Week 3 behind disappointing offensive performances. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, it’s only a matter of time before Trevor Lawrence’s passing attack gets back on track. For the Atlanta Falcons, there’s been little reason to be enthusiastic about Desmond Ridder’s future. That means Atlanta’s offense will continue to be run-reliant.
The trip to Europe is an additional variable for this matchup. The Jaguars have played in Europe in the last two years and in nine of the previous 10 seasons. This will be Atlanta’s third trip to Europe and its second in the past three years.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Falcons 20
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Commanders at Eagles
Spread: Eagles -8
Total: 44.5
The Philadelphia Eagles continue to march out one of the league’s best rosters, headlined by their premium offensive and defensive lines. Offensively, Philadelphia is one of the few teams in the league that can mitigate Washington’s premium pass rush. Last week, Sam Howell took nine sacks and threw four interceptions against the Buffalo Bills. The Eagles’ pass rush is even more disruptive than Buffalo’s.
The Washington Commanders were the first team to beat Philadelphia last season. Commanders running backs saw 40 total carries in that contest. Expect a similar approach in this matchup, especially considering Howell’s struggles last week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Commanders 13
Dolphins at Bills
Spread: Bills -3
Total: 53.5
This is the most interesting game on the Week 4 slate. The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos without Jaylen Waddle. Miami’s mixture of innovative play calling and game-breaking speed will be hard for anyone to contain.
Buffalo lost a close, defensive-driven game to the New York Jets on opening day. The Bills have since blown out the Las Vegas Raiders and Commanders to get back on track. Miami and Buffalo split their two matchups last year, where the home team won by three points or less.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 24
Vikings at Panthers
Spread: Panthers +3.5
Total: 45
This is one of two battles between winless teams on the Weslate.
Kirk Cousins’ passing attack is among the best in the league. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Vikings’ running game and defense are below average.
There are very few positive things to say about the Carolina Panthers this season. Bryce Young struggled in his first two games, then missed last week’s contest in Seattle. Veteran Andy Dalton filled in admirably, but many of his 361 passing yards came in a negative game script. Both these teams desperately need a win, but this is Minnesota’s game to lose.
Score Prediction: Vikings 27, Panthers 20
Steelers at Texans
Spread: Texans +3
Total: 42
No one could have asked for more from C.J. Stroud through his first three NFL games. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he’ll face the first premium pass rush of his professional career. Pittsburgh’s pass rush has a trench advantage against the Houston Texans' injury-ravaged offensive line.
Kenny Pickett’s offense is coming off a solid game against the Raiders, but it still needs to improve. The key to this contest is how well Stroud plays in a game where he’ll likely face consistent pressure.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Texans 17
>>READ: Stroud Playing at Pro Bowl Level
Ravens at Browns
Spread: Browns -2.5
Total: 41
The Baltimore Ravens lost to the rebuilding Indianapolis Colts in overtime last week. That’s a bad loss, but the Ravens were without a handful of their best players. This week, they get the Cleveland Browns, who have given up just three points in two of their three games.
Cleveland’s defense is for real, but its offense is still unreliable. Deshaun Watson played his best game of the year against the Tennessee Titans last week. Tennessee has one of the league’s most beatable secondaries, so take that performance with a grain of salt. However, if Watson can consistently play like he did last week, Cleveland is a title contender.
Lamar Jackson, who can carry his offense, is a more reliable option than Watson. If the Ravens get back a few of their key pieces this week, they can beat Cleveland. If they don’t, the Browns could control the trenches on both sides of the ball in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 17
Bengals at Titans
Spread: Titans +2.5
Total: 41.5
Joe Burrow’s passing attack vs. the Titans’ pass defense is the key to this contest. The Titans have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers through three games. The Cincinnati Bengals have an elite wide receiver trio and less-talented quarterbacks have torched Tennessee.
However, the Bengals' offensive line has struggled, and the Titans have a premium pass rush. Burrow has a mobility-reducing calf injury, making that trench matchup an even more significant concern for Cincinnati. Tennessee has the league’s worst offensive line, giving the Bengals a solid front advantage.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Titans 17
Buccaneers at Saints
Spread: Saints -3
Total: 40.5
This is a matchup between two rock-solid defenses that will face two volatile quarterbacks. Jameis Winston will likely start in place of the injured Derek Carr. Winston is the king of all Jekyll and Hyde quarterbacks; he can throw for 300 yards or turn the ball over multiple times. Neither of those outcomes would be a surprise here against his former team.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were brought back to reality after their 2-0 start on Monday night, losing by 14 to the Eagles. Tampa’s defense is still a solid unit, but it’s hard to have any real confidence in Baker Mayfield.
Score Prediction: Saints 16, Buccaneers 13
Broncos at Bears
Spread: Bears +3
Total: 46
We saw the Dolphins hang an unthinkable 70 points against the Broncos last week. If the Kansas City Chiefs had kept their foot on the gas, they might have been able to do the same to the Chicago Bears. In other words, we’re looking at two of the most beatable defenses in recent memory in this matchup.
Russell Wilson could still be more consistent, but he’s made several excellent plays this year and is better and more reliable now than he was this time last season. Justin Fields’ offense looked lost last week in Kansas City. We can’t count on either defense, but Wilson’s offense has been more of a factor than Fields’.
Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Bears 24
Rams at Colts
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 47
The rebuilding Colts are a scrappy 2-1 team coming off an overtime win in Baltimore. They accomplished that with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew under center. This week, likely get back Anthony Richardson, who has been a much better passer than most expected.
On the other side, Matthew Stafford draws the Colts' beatable secondary. Stafford has kept the Los Angeles Rams competitive through the season's first three games. This game primarily rides on Stafford’s right arm and the Colts’ ability to pressure him.
Score Prediction: Rams 24, Colts 20
Raiders at Chargers
Spread: Chargers -6
Total: 48
The Raiders' lone victory came against a Broncos team that gave up 35 points to Howell and the Commanders and 70 points to the Dolphins. Las Vegas beat Denver 17-16 on opening day. Jimmy Garoppolo is in concussion protocol, putting his status in doubt for this matchup. That means Brian Hoyer could take over this already-limited offense.
Expect Vegas to lean on Josh Jacobs because Brandon Staley’s defense invites running back production. Ultimately, there’s a narrow path for the Raiders to keep up with Justin Herbert’s offense.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Raiders 16
Cardinals at 49ers
Spread: 49ers -14
Total: 43.5
The Arizona Cardinals gave the Commanders and Giants all they could handle in their first two games. Then, last week, they decisively defeated the Dallas Cowboys by beating them up in both trenches. After that impressive win, the Cardinals have to travel to San Francisco to face the most complete team in football.
The 49ers are well-rested and can win in the air, on the ground or with defense. Arizona has exceeded expectations through three games, but a road game in San Francisco is a tall task.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 13
Patriots at Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -7
Total: 43.5
Dallas is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals, where Arizona pushed them around in both trenches. Expect Bill Belichick to take a similarly physical approach against the Cowboys.
The strategic chasm between Belichick and Mike McCarthy is quite wide. Dallas has the better roster, so this game is mainly on McCarthy and Dak Prescott. Both quarterback and coach had no answers in Arizona last week.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Patriots 20
Sunday Night Football
Chiefs at Jets
Spread: Jets +9.5
Total: 42.5
The Jets’ defense is talented enough to limit Patrick Mahomes’ offense. We saw the Lions and Jaguars keep Kansas City below its team total. The Jets could, conceivably, do the same. The problem for New York this week — and moving forward — is its offense. The team has plenty of talent, but Zach Wilson’s passing attack is again nonfunctional. Unless New York can have a big game on the ground, it’s hard to see the Jets doing enough on offense to win this game.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
Monday Night Football
Seahawks at Giants
Spread: Giants -1.5
Total: 47
After an embarrassing blowout loss to the Rams on opening day, the Seahawks bounced back nicely over the last two weeks. Their offense has scored exactly 37 points in each of their previous two contests. On the other hand, their defense has allowed at least 27 points in all three games.
The Giants lost badly to the Cowboys and 49ers, two of the most talented teams in the league. Outside of their second-half surge against the Cardinals, the Giants’ offense has been nonfunctional this season. If New York is going to take down Seattle, it’s primarily on Daniel Jones and the Giants pass rush.
Score Prediction: Giants 26, Seahawks 24
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 and has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
