Analysis

9/1/23

5 min read

2023 NFL Betting: Divisional Bets To Place

By Daniel Racz

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The 2023 NFL season kicks off in less than a week, and betting analyst Daniel Racz looks at the league with an emphasis on analyzing divisions. Below, we'll look at the markets where bettors can still make worthwhile wagers.

NFL Division Bets to Consider

AFC East

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

Betting markets have correctly priced the Buffalo Bills as the strong favorites to win their division. Meanwhile, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins offer little value. The New England Patriots, appropriately, sit as long shots to win the division. 

There are no worthwhile bets in the AFC East divisional market or any other performance-based market.

AFC North

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

Like the Bills in the AFC East, the Cincinnati Bengals are a reasonably priced favorite to win the division. If someone wanted to bet on the Bengals, their +1100 Super Bowl odds offer more value than their odds to win the division. Even their Super Bowl chances are close enough to fair value not to warrant a bet. 

The Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers offer no value to win the division at current prices. You should avoid the AFC North until the odds change after the season starts. 

AFC South

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

While the other AFC divisional favorites possess little to no value, betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ upside case remains appealing. However, their -155 price to win the division is too steep to bet. 

The Jaguars are +220 to have over 11.5 wins. Given their roster’s ascending nature and an easy schedule, the over on 11.5 wins provides substantial value. It should be priced at roughly +200. 

Additionally, the Jaguars are +1200 to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. If Trevor Lawrence takes a significant step, the Jaguars could dominate their schedule. In an efficient market, the Jaguars should have odds closer to +800 in this market, making this a strong bet. 

The rest of the AFC South has no value, and bettors should not make wagers on the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans.

AFC West

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

The Kansas City Chiefs hold little value because the betting markets have them priced as favorites in nearly every available category. However, the Los Angeles Chargers still seem underrated. 

Instead of betting on them to win the division, consider over 10.5 wins at +145 as a light play. Justin Herbert is a top-tier quarterback, but injuries held this team back last year. The Chargers should win 11 or more games in around 45 percent of seasons and be priced far closer to +120. 

>> READ: Lions vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

NFC East

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

The Philadelphia Eagles sit atop the division, but their aging defense and fragile offense provide value for outsiders. The Dallas Cowboys’ price of +195 makes them an attractive bet. They spent their offseason investing in the passing game (adding Brandin Cooks) and secondary (trading for Stephon Gilmore) while revamping their analytics department. 

The NFC East is a two-horse race, but the price discrepancy between the top two teams in the betting markets is wider than their actual ranges of outcomes should indicate. The Cowboys should be priced at close to +175. 

NFC North

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

The NFC North projects as a relatively wide-open division, and the market has reasonably captured each team’s potential. The Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are slightly overpriced, while the Green Bay Packers’ price of +400 holds some appeal, but not enough to demand a wager. 

With an above-average roster and a potentially elite coaching staff, the Packers only need Jordan Love to play close to league average to have a realistic path to winning the division. But Love’s ability is a big enough question to force bettors to stay away from the market at current prices. 

NFC South

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

In the league’s weakest division, buying into the New Orleans Saints’ downside has value. The Saints have one of the league’s oldest rosters and lack ascending talent at multiple premium positions. Their odds of missing the playoffs sit at +160.

While the Saints range from the fifth- to seventh-best team in the NFC, the variance of the season is more likely to hurt their playoff chances than help. An unexpected breakout from a fringe contender, such as the Atlanta Falcons, could drastically lower the Saints’ playoff chances. 

The Falcons’ odds to win the division are appealing, but playing the Saints to miss the playoffs captures the Falcons’ upside in a more valuable way. 

NFC West

Division Odds (from DraftKings): 

The San Francisco 49ers’ place atop the NFC West hierarchy is well-deserved, but the Seattle Seahawks’ upside deserves consideration. 

Geno Smith’s late-career breakout has every characteristic of a legitimate stepping stone instead of a fluke, but the markets seem less confident.

As such, betting on the Seahawks to make the playoffs at -120 and to have over 10.5 wins at +220 appropriately captures the Seahawks’ median and ceiling outcomes. The Seahawks’ four combined games against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals — with many other winnable games on their schedule — provide a reasonable path to an 11-win or better season. 

The Seahawks likely only need to win nine games to make the playoffs. They could sneak into the playoffs with eight wins, too.

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Daniel Racz

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