Analysis
10/19/23
9 min read
NFL Week 7: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. As we head into Week 7, there’s a clearer line between contending teams and those jockeying for position in the middle.
For a handful of teams, the 2023 season is close to being over. Here are our picks and predictions for each Week 7 contest.
Thursday Night Football
Jaguars at Saints
Spread: Saints -1
Total: 39.5
Trevor Lawrence is trending toward playing despite a knee injury, which changes the complexion of this game. With Lawrence, the Jacksonville Jaguars have two clear paths to victory. The first is through him elevating the offense against the New Orleans Saints’ top-10 defense. That’s how Lawrence’s Jaguars win most of their games. The second is through Jacksonville’s edge duo wreaking havoc against New Orleans’ underachieving, banged-up offensive line.
For the Saints, Derek Carr finally looked like himself last week after injuring his throwing shoulder in Week 3. New Orleans hasn’t hit its stride on offense, but it has the raw materials to be a fringe top-10 unit. The Jaguars’ pass defense has struggled against every pass-catching group so far this season
Score Prediction: Saints 24, Jaguars 23
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Lions at Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3
Total: 42
The Detroit Lions head to Baltimore for their second road game in a row. On the surface, the Lions might be a tougher, more complete team than the Baltimore Ravens. Detroit’s defense has been good, while the offense has paired stability with a pretty high ceiling. The Lions’ running game will take a hit without David Montgomery, which puts this game even more on Jared Goff.
On the Ravens’ side, the defense has been good, which is standard in Baltimore. However, Lamar Jackson’s offense hasn’t been overly impressive. Jackson has topped out at 237 passing yards for a single game this season. It’s still early, but so far, Todd Monken’s new pass-centric offense has been more hype than substance. Baltimore doesn’t need a big day on offense to leave with a win, but this group is still reliant on Jackson.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Lions 17
Falcons at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Total: 38.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a solid defense paired with a one-dimensional offense. The problem there is that one dimension — Baker Mayfield’s passing attack — isn’t good and can’t be relied upon.
The Atlanta Falcons have a solid, well-rounded roster outside of quarterback. Desmond Ridder has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the last two games. He played well against Houston but threw three interceptions against the Commanders last week. Quarterback play drives virtually all NFL contests, but for this matchup, stability could be the difference.
Score Prediction: Falcons 17, Buccaneers 16
Commanders at Giants
Spread: Giants +2
Total: 39.5
The New York Giants are 1-5, but they’ve lost to Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami and Buffalo. The Washington Commanders are a far more beatable opponent than any of those contending teams. The Commanders' and Giants’ defenses have trench advantages in this matchup. This game largely boils down to which volatile quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. Expect both teams to lean on their running games for as long as they can.
Score Prediction: Giants 16, Commanders 13
Browns at Colts
Spread: Colts +2
Total: 39
After a big win against the 49ers, the Cleveland Browns are in your prototypical letdown spot. To make that happen, the Indianapolis Colts need to keep this game close enough so that they can lean on their run game.
If they fall behind, we’ve seen Cleveland’s pass defense shut down several offenses. If Deshaun Watson plays, the Browns have a number of paths to victory. If he doesn’t, Cleveland’s defense will have to drive them to victory.
Score Prediction: Browns 16, Colts 6
Bills at Patriots
Spread: Patriots +9
Total: 41.5
The Buffalo Bills escaped with a win against Tyrod Taylor’s Giants on Sunday night. Buffalo now faces a similarly ineffective New England Patriots offense. Josh Allen’s Bills have only lost one game to New England since 2020, the infamous wind game in 2021.
Allen’s offense has scored more than 30 points in three of its four games against the Patriots since. New England has its back up against the wall and has a significant talent deficit against Buffalo.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 13
Raiders at Bears
Spread: Bears +3
Total: 37.5
Justin Fields is considered doubtful for this matchup, which means Tyson Bagent could get his first NFL start. Bagent will need to be a radically different player than he was last week for the Chicago Bears to have a functioning offense.
The Las Vegas Raiders will likely be without their starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, as well. Veteran Brian Hoyer came on in relief duty last week against New England, which means he likely starts Sunday. The Raiders are in a better position with Hoyer than the Bears are with Bagent. Las Vegas EDGE Maxx Crosby is going to be a real problem if Chicago needs to play from behind.
Score Prediction: Raiders 16, Bears 10
Steelers at Rams
Spread: Rams -3
Total: 43.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their bye, and their defense will have a trench advantage against the Los Angeles Rams; Los Angeles will be down to its fourth and fifth running backs in this matchup.
Matthew Stafford’s already pass-centric offense will be even more reliant on his right arm. Pittsburgh could get Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth back in this contest, so if Kenny Pickett’s offense can meet expectations, the Steelers should leave Los Angeles 4-2.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Rams 20
Cardinals at Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -7.5
Total: 45
Geno Smith’s offense underwhelmed in Cincinnati last week. The Seattle Seahawks are in a classic bounce-back spot against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals played well through the first four weeks, but they’ve lost decisively in each of the last two. Arizona faces a major talent deficit against the Seahawks at virtually every position group. Ultimately, this is Seattle’s game to win, and they can do so categorically.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
Chargers at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 48.5
The Kansas City Chiefs' defense continues to drive their early season success. Patrick Mahomes and the offense has uncharacteristically underwhelmed through the first six games. The Los Angeles Chargers are now 2-3, coming off a difficult Monday night loss to the Cowboys.
Win or lose, Justin Herbert consistently gives Mahomes’ Chiefs a run for their money. The Chargers are the far more desperate team, but the Chiefs are used to taking everyone’s best shot. That said, Mahomes might need to do more this week to put Los Angeles in a 2-4 hole.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
Packers at Broncos
Spread: Broncos +1
Total: 44.5
The Denver Broncos’ defense had its best showing of the season Thursday night against Kansas City. The Broncos offense, on the other hand, only scored eight points. Denver continues to be a maddeningly inconsistent team.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye and are hoping that leads to getting back some key pieces. We can’t rely on Jordan Love and the offense just yet, but the group is in a strong position to at least meet expectations in Denver. If Green Bay’s talented defense plays to its potential, the Packers should win this game comfortably.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Broncos 17
Sunday Night Football
Dolphins at Eagles
Spread: Eagles -2
Total: 52
This is a great primetime matchup between two of the best teams in football. The Miami Dolphins’ offense has been historically productive through the first six weeks. If Miami is going to beat a premium team such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing attack will lead the way — especially because Philadelphia has been one of the harder teams to run against this season.
A major obstacle for Miami is that Philadelphia’s pass rush has a trench advantage in this matchup. If rookie DT Jalen Carter returns to action, Philadelphia has a major advantage in the interior. That talent gap will widen further if Dolphins C Connor Williams misses this contest.
The Eagles’ skill group will also be a lot for Miami’s struggling defense to handle. If Jalen Hurts bounces back after a rough outing against the Jets, the Eagles can walk away with a win.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Dolphins 27
Monday Night Football
49ers at Vikings
Spread: Vikings +6.5
Total: 44
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a loss against Cleveland’s premium defense. 49ers K Jake Moody missed a potential winning 41-yard field goal with just seconds left. Don’t overreact to that outcome. The strength of the Minnesota Vikings over the past two seasons has been their passing attack.
With Justin Jefferson sidelined, Minnesota has no elite strength to hang its hat on. The Vikings are facing a more talented, more complete roster Monday night. They have a narrow path to giving the 49ers a scare.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 17
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
