Analysis
10/12/23
11 min read
NFL Week 6: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. Every week, we better understand who each NFL team truly is. There are many matchups this week that will give us a much better read on where some surprise teams are truly headed.
Thursday Night Football
Broncos at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10.5
Total: 48
Patrick Mahomes and the offense haven’t quite hit their stride through the first five games. In fact, Kansas City’s defense has been the driving force behind their 4-1 start. Denver’s defense has been consistently dismantled in the air and especially on the ground this year. If Mahomes’ passing attack will show some ceiling, this is the week for it.
Russell Wilson has been better than he was for most of last season, but he’s still been inconsistent. Overall, the Broncos have been a bottom-tier team so far. That said, it would be less of a surprise if their offense played well against Kansas City than if their defense figured things out on the short week.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Broncos 20
Sunday Morning Game
Ravens at Titans
Spread: Titans +4.5
Total: 40.5
The Baltimore Ravens’ new-look offense hasn’t exactly impressed through five games. Lamar Jackson is an efficient passer, but his dynamic athleticism still determines the Ravens’ success.
The Ravens had several game-changing drops last week, so expect a better outing at London. The Tennessee Titans’ pass rush is the team's strength, while the secondary remains a beatable unit.
Tennessee has talent on offense, but it has been inconsistent. A big reason for that is its bottom-tier offensive line. The Ravens do not have a highly capable front four, but they will create pressure in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Titans 17
Sunday Afternoon Slate
49ers at Browns
Spread: Browns +5.5
Total: 37.5
The San Francisco 49ers are the league's best, most complete team. The 49ers can beat you in the air, on the ground or with the best defense in football. San Francisco has it all.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off their bye, and their high-end defense could challenge the 49ers. Deshaun Watson missed Week 4 due to a throwing shoulder injury. If he misses this contest, Cleveland is in danger of being shut out. If Watson plays, the Browns have a realistic path to knocking off the undefeated 49ers.
Score Prediction: 49ers 17, Browns 13
Panthers at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -13.5
Total: 48.5
The Miami Dolphins have a historic offense through five games. Their decision to stack speed has made them one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Miami will be without RB De’Von Achane, whose game-breaking speed further elevated this dangerous offense.
Even without Achane, the Dolphins have plenty of ways to march up and down the field. The Carolina Panthers are the only winless team in the league, and they desperately need their Week 7 bye. Extreme effort is the Panthers’ best chance to keep this one close. That’s a pretty thin path against a top-five team like Miami.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Panthers 20
Colts at Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -4
Total: 45.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a big win against the Bills in London. That victory gets an asterisk because the Jaguars were already in England the previous week while the Bills had to travel.
Still, Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars are trending in the right direction. The offense has shown some ceiling in both phases, while the defense has been solid in their three wins.
One of those came against the Indianapolis Colts on opening day. Gardner Minshew will take over for the injured Anthony Richardson at quarterback for the next several weeks. Minshew is a good backup, but beating the Jaguars on the road is a tall task.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 17
Vikings at Bears
Spread: Bears +2.5
Total: 44.5
Justin Jefferson will miss at least four games because of a hamstring injury. His absence turns this into a matchup between two very similar teams. The Minnesota Vikings’ passing attack is their lone strength. Losing the most productive wide receiver in football makes Minnesota a team with no true strength.
Justin Fields and the offense are inconsistent, but as we saw last week, it still has a considerable ceiling. Both defenses are below-average groups, giving this contest shootout potential. You could argue the Chicago Bears have more ways to win a game than the Jefferson-less Vikings.
Score Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 24
Seahawks at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3
Total: 45.5
This is among the most exciting games on the Week 6 slate. The Cincinnati Bengals looked like they might be back in Arizona. Joe Burrow looked like himself, and Ja’Marr Chase could not be stopped. They get a much tougher test this week when they host the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle is coming off its bye and is at least on the fringe of being a complete team. Geno Smith and the offense are highly capable, with a high-end wide receiver trio and a strong running back duo. Seattle added significant talent to their defense this offseason, which is starting to pay dividends.
The Bengals head into their bye after this contest, but they’ll face the 49ers and Bills afterward. That makes this a borderline must-win game for 2-3 Cincinnati.
Score Prediction: Bengals 26, Seahawks 23
Saints at Texans
Spread: Texans +1.5
Total: 42.5
The Houston Texans have been a tough out early this season. C.J. Stroud has been historically efficient for a rookie quarterback. Stroud, surprisingly, hasn’t been greatly affected by Houston’s injury-ravaged offensive line. However, Houston’s running game has struggled mightily behind that group. That makes Houston a one-dimensional offense against the New Orleans Saints’ top-10 defense.
Derek Carr is playing through a throwing shoulder injury, costing him a handful of throws a game. The Saints have a better roster than the Texans, but Houston has the better quarterback and coaching staff.
Score Prediction: Saints 20, Texans 17
Commanders at Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total: 42.5
The Atlanta Falcons have escaped with home wins against the Packers and Texans this year. Desmond Ridder is coming off his most productive game as a pro, but he’s still a volatile quarterback. The Falcons’ roster is strong in virtually every other area. Consider the Falcons an unreliable 3-2 team.
The Washington Commanders gave up 40 points to the Bears last Thursday, where their premium front had little impact. Expect a much better effort coming off the long week.
Sam Howell is a talented but inconsistent player, taking sacks at a historic rate. Some of it is on him, but most is on Washington’s bottom-tier offensive line. How that group plays could determine who wins this contest.
Score Prediction: Falcons 21, Commanders 20
Patriots at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -3
Total: 41.5
The New England Patriots have lost their last two games by a combined score of 72-3. New England’s defense, which is the team's strength, has been ravaged by injuries.
On top of that, Mac Jones has been pulled in the last two games. Few things are going right for the Patriots.
The Las Vegas Raiders have a handful of exceptional players but are not a good football team. A big reason for that is Jimmy Garoppolo is a game manager. That won’t be enough for the Raiders to beat most NFL teams, but it could be enough against New England.
Traditionally, Bill Belichick’s disciples, like Josh McDaniels, fare well against the NFL’s strategic master.
Score Prediction: Raiders 17, Patriots 16
Eagles at Jets
Spread: Jets +7
Total: 41
The Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive front has a trench advantage in this contest. New York will be without OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, further increasing Philadelphia’s advantage.
This isn’t good news for Zach Wilson, one of the league’s most unreliable quarterbacks.
The New York Jets will have their hands full with Jalen Hurts and his collection of difference-making skill players. The Eagles’ offensive line can also mitigate New York’s high-end front.
The Jets’ defense carries this team to victory every week. That will be a big ask against the undefeated Eagles.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Jets 13
Lions at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers +3
Total: 43.5
The Detroit Lions were down several difference-makers last week and still blew out the Panthers. The Lions are one of the league’s few complete teams. They can win games in multiple styles.
The 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their bye. Tampa Bay’s defense has driven their success, but Baker Mayfield has played well for his new team. The Buccaneers’ running game has been nearly non-existent. When Tampa faces premium teams like Detroit, their success or failure will be largely determined by Mayfield.
Score Prediction: Lions 23, Buccaneers 17
Cardinals at Rams
Spread: Rams -7
Total: 48.5
Matthew Stafford has been exceptional this season, as he’s made the Los Angeles Rams a consistently competitive team. With Cooper Kupp back, the Rams’ passing attack is a genuine strength.
The Arizona Cardinals were an extreme effort team that overachieved through the first four games. In Week 5 against the Bengals, Arizona had its worst game of the year. If the Cardinals put forth a similar effort against the Rams, it will end with a similar result.
Score Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 17
Sunday Night Football
Giants at Bills
Spread: Bills -14
Total: 44.5
This looks like it's going to be bad. The New York Giants have a limited roster with a few individual bright spots. No position group can genuinely be considered a strength. On top of that, three of New York’s four best players are listed on the injury report, including Daniel Jones.
That’s a real problem when playing an elite team like Buffalo.
The Giants’ biggest positive is that Buffalo is coming back from London. Teams often play down after that unorthodox trip. Otherwise, from a pure talent perspective, the Buffalo Bills can beat New York in every area.
The Bills’ pass rush can dominate, and so can their secondary. Then, you have Josh Allen coming off a loss. Chances are Buffalo finishes this contest with its fourth decisive win of the season.
Score Prediction: Bills 34, Giants 3
Monday Night Football
Cowboys at Chargers
Spread: Chargers +2
Total: 50.5
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing primetime loss against the 49ers. Expect a much stronger effort from Dallas in all phases. In fact, the Cowboys’ coaching staff is reportedly working overtime all week.
While that effort is admirable, it’s time for Dak Prescott to step up and win a game. The lopsided loss to the 49ers is forgivable, but his effort in Arizona weeks ago is not.
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers can beat anyone at full strength. The Chargers are coming off their bye, which means they will likely get back Austin Ekeler, Derwin James and Joey Bosa.
An interesting wrinkle in this matchup is that Chargers’ offensive coordinator Kellen Moore faces his old team. The Chargers’ offensive line can mitigate the Cowboys’ elite pass rush, and Moore couldn’t be more familiar with Dallas.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
