Analysis
11/9/23
11 min read
NFL Week 10: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. This week marks the start of the second half of the season. There’s already a pretty definitive line between contending teams and everyone else.
There are a few matchups this week that could end up having significant playoff ramifications.
Thursday Night Football
Panthers vs. Bears
Spread: Bears -4
Total: 39
It looks like Tyson Bagent will get another start for the Chicago Bears. Bagent has had some turnover issues; otherwise, he’s been better than most expected. He’s been particularly solid in pressure management. The Carolina Panthers' run defense has been a liability, giving up the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season. That puts Chicago’s fourth-best rushing attack in a plus matchup. Expect the Bears to lean on their running game for as long as possible. The Panthers' best defender, EDGE Brian Burns, will miss this contest.
Bryce Young’s offense continues to do little in either phase. Chicago’s defense is an improving unit that has played well in three of its last four games. It’s hard to expect a breakthrough performance from Young on a short week. The Bears are unreliable but have more paths to victory.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 16
Colts vs. Patriots (London)
Spread: Patriots +1.5
Total: 43.5
This has been a nightmare season for Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. New England’s offense is scoring the second-fewest points per game in the league. The offense has a good matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who are allowing the fourth-most points per game. If Mac Jones’ offense is going to take a step forward, this is the week.
The Colts are, surprisingly, seventh in points per game. The Patriots continue to play without a few of their most impactful defenders. That said, Gardner Minshew has never faced the Patriots before, and Belichick continues to create strategic advantages on defense.
Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Colts 20
Texans vs. Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6.5
Total: 48
The Cincinnati Bengals are on a four-game winning streak, which includes three wins against quality teams. Joe Burrow is back, and Tee Higgins looked like himself for the first time in weeks against Buffalo. Cincinnati’s offense line has played its two best games against tough opponents in the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills. In summation, things are trending up for the Bengals in a big way.
They’ll host C.J. Stroud coming off a record-setting performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud was spectacular, but the Houston Texans' defense gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield. The Texans have shown a serious ceiling on both sides of the ball, but their defense remains volatile. Expect Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to make things difficult for Stroud.
Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Texans 20
Browns vs. Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6
Total: 37.5
The Baltimore Ravens blew out the Cleveland Browns 28-3 earlier this season in Cleveland. The Browns have gone 3-1 since that outing, including a narrow loss to the Seattle Seahawks on the road. Cleveland played three of those games with P.J. Walker at quarterback. Deshaun Watson returned to action last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
You could argue it was Watson’s most encouraging outing of the year. Unfortunately, he’ll face the Ravens without both of Cleveland’s starting offensive tackles. You can game plan around one liability at offensive tackle, but it’s hard to play effective offense with two. How Cleveland manages that dynamic likely will determine this game.
Lamar Jackson has been efficient this season, but he’s thrown for less than 200 yards four times. That includes their decisive win over Cleveland, where Baltimore had just 296 yards of offense. Baltimore is among the most complete and reliable teams in the league. The Ravens can win this game in several ways. The Browns continue to have a top-five defense that has driven most of their success.
Score Prediction: Ravens 17, Browns 13
49ers vs. Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars +3
Total: 46.5
The San Francisco 49ers entered their Week 9 bye on a three-game losing streak. Most teams would be in trouble facing San Francisco under these conditions. The most significant factor in this matchup is Brock Purdy. After scoring at least 30 points a game in their wins, the 49ers scored 17 points in each of their losses. If Purdy gets back on track, that puts this game entirely on Trevor Lawrence’s shoulders.
Adding EDGE Chase Young improves San Francisco’s dominant pass rush. How well Jacksonville Jaguars rookie RT Anton Harrison holds up is another key. San Francisco’s ordinarily stout run defense struggled against the Minnesota Vikings and the Bengals.
That creates some hope Travis Etienne can provide Lawrence with some help. But ultimately, if the Jaguars win this game, that outcome is likely driven by Lawrence.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Jaguars 20
Packers vs. Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3
Total: 39
These are two similar teams whose defenses primarily drive their success. Kenny Pickett’s offense continues to be volatile and underwhelming. The Pittsburgh Steelers have enough talent on offense to be better than they have been. But we’ve seen enough from this group where this might just be who they are. Pittsburgh is coming off a long week after beating the Tennessee Titans last Thursday.
The Green Bay Packers haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 2 despite facing a few average defenses. It’s hard to envision Jordan Love’s offense having its breakthrough against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. If the Packers win this game, their talented defense will likely drive that outcome.
Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Packers 13
Saints vs. Vikings
Spread: Vikings +2.5
Total: 41
Joshua Dobbs joined the Minnesota Vikings last week and then came on in relief duty to score 31 points against the Atlanta Falcons. His effort under those conditions is remarkable. In the long term, he can keep the Vikings alive in the NFC Wild Card picture. Dobbs is still unfamiliar with the offense this week, and he’ll be without two of Minnesota’s four best pass catchers. The Vikings have a significant challenge against a New Orleans Saints defense allowing the seventh-fewest points per game.
The Saints have an above-average roster to the point they are close to being a complete team. Derek Carr is 10th in the league in passing yards, and New Orleans has a capable running game. From a pure talent perspective, the Saints have several advantages in this matchup. New Orleans’ biggest issue continues to be consistency.
Score Prediction: Saints 20, Vikings 17
Titans vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -1
Total: 38
Will Levis has shown some promise through his first two NFL games, so the Titans named him the starter for the rest of the season. Tampa Bay has a strong enough run defense that teams try to be more pass-centric against them. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers’ pass rush has a trench advantage in this contest. That puts a lot on Levis’ shoulders in his third start. One benefit for the Titans is they are coming off a long week, having played last Thursday.
The Buccaneers’ ineffective running game will square off against Tennessee’s usually stout run defense. The Titans have a formidable front, but their secondary is beatable. If Tampa Bay produces any offense, Mayfield will need to provide it.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Titans 17
Lions vs. Chargers
Spread: Chargers +2.5
Total: 48.5
The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye, and they’ve been a rock-solid football team this year. That said, they are 1-2 against teams with winning records and beat the Kansas City Chiefs by one point. Kansas City was without Chris Jones and Travis Kelce in that matchup. The Lions’ offense has been good but not quite great this season. Detroit’s defense has been the better unit to this point.
Few teams have a premium quarterback like Justin Herbert with a high-end pass rush like the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles also has a high-quality offensive line with difference makers in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers’ offense has consistently underachieved since losing Mike Williams in Week 3. Defensively, every position group has shredded the Chargers through the air. Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Detroit’s running backs all have plus matchups in this contest.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Chargers 23
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +1
Total: 42
Kyler Murray returns to action this week against Atlanta. Expect Murray to be less active as a runner because he’s coming off a season-ending knee injury. Even if Murray is rusty, he’s a monumental upgrade over Clayton Tune.
The Falcons lost to the Vikings last week despite Minnesota having to play a quarterback they acquired earlier in the week. Taylor Heinicke looks like an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons continue to make bizarre decisions on offense. Ultimately, the Falcons are a talented team with zero reliability.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Falcons 17
Giants vs. Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -16
Total: 38.5
When these two teams met on opening day the Dallas Cowboys won 40-0. The Cowboys’ pass rush completely derailed that game. Tommy DeVito is now the New York Giants’ starting quarterback. It’s nearly impossible to envision New York orchestrating multiple scoring drives against Dallas.
Dak Prescott has played his best football of the year in the Cowboys’ past three games. He’s been productive and solid in pressure management during that stretch. Prescott can beat the Giants through the air, but New York allows the third-most rushing yards to running backs. It’s Tony Pollard week.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Giants 3
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 46.5
The Seattle Seahawks are a contender when Geno Smith plays at a high level. Unfortunately, Smith is on a four-game run where he’s thrown six interceptions and taken 11 sacks. Seattle has scored 20 points or less in three of those four games. The Washington Commanders have a beatable pass defense, which puts Smith in a solid position to right the ship. If Smith struggles in this matchup, that’s genuinely concerning for Seattle’s long-term prospects.
Sam Howell is on pace to throw the most passes and take the most sacks in a single season in NFL history. He shouldn’t be treated as a reliable quarterback, but he’s a big reason Washington is a competitive team.
Seattle doesn’t have the most imposing pass rush, but it has a talented secondary. The Seahawks’ defense could create several turnovers in this matchup. If Washington keeps this game close, that’s likely driven by Howell's strong play.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Commanders 23
Sunday Night Football
Jets vs. Raiders
Spread: Raiders +1.5
Total: 36
Zach Wilson’s offense has been hard to watch all season, but the New York Jets’ defense can win this game on its own. In Week 4, Aidan O’Connell struggled with pressure management all game against the Chargers. That situation could be much worse against New York on Sunday night. Expect the Las Vegas Raiders to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs in both phases for as long as possible. If the Raiders fall behind, O’Connell is in trouble.
The Jets have been pass-heavy in recent weeks, with little to show for it. Their running game hasn’t seen much success since Week 5 against Denver. The Raiders have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs. If the Jets are going to lean on their running game while trying to grind out a win, this is the week to do it.
Score Prediction: Jets 17, Raiders 9
Monday Night Football
Broncos vs. Bills
Spread: Bills -7.5
Total: 47
The 5-4 Bills are no longer a lock to make the playoffs. That makes them a desperate team capable of beating anyone. Buffalo’s defense has held up reasonably well despite losing several difference-makers to injury. If the Bills ascend, that’s likely on Josh Allen. He’ll face a Denver Broncos defense that’s played three strong games in a row, including two against the Chiefs.
Russell Wilson has 16 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. He’s also thrown for fewer than 200 yards in Denver’s past four games. At this point, the Broncos should be treated as a bottom-tier offense with upside.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17
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Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
