Analysis

9/13/23

11 min read

Matthew Hill's 2023 NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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The uncertainty of Week 1 is in the rearview mirror. Unlike the educated guesswork of opening week, we can build and set lineups more confidently because of access to data, including snap counts, routes, targets and touches.

While there is a hesitancy to put too much stake in the small sample size, we can still use it to better understand which players to target and which ones to be light on or to fade altogether. 

My complete Week 2 rankings include highlights of players I have significantly above or below consensus, according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Player blurbs are included for the ones I have the strongest opinions on and which I will invest the most for DFS.

I will update my weekly rankings as new information comes in, including writing additional player blurbs. 

Hill’s Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a top-10 performance on the road against the Indianapolis Colts and now gets the Kansas City Chiefs at home in the week’s highest-totaled contest (opened at 51 points). No one has to tell you to start Lawrence in traditional leagues. He comes into the week undervalued at only $6,700 on DraftKings (the sixth-highest price on the main slate) and as the QB6 in the early ECR. 

Jared Goff, Lions

Jared Goff gets a Seattle Seahawks defense at home that just surrendered 334 yards to Matthew Stafford. The Lions-Seahawks matchup has the week’s second-highest total (48.5); Goff’s receivers are healthy, and he should have no trouble returning value on his $6,200 price tag. While his early ECR of QB11 is fair, Goff has high-end QB1 upside. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders

With the top-tier quarterbacks in smash spots and Goff being a great value, there is little interest in paying down for a quarterback. However, if I was looking to save at the position, Jimmy Garoppolo was a high-end QB2 in his Las Vegas Raiders debut. He could compile significant garbage time points at Buffalo. His ECR of QB30 is too low. 

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs’ minimal involvement in his debut was frustrating. Still, what he did with his limited touches gave us a glimpse into his bright future. Gibbs totaled 42 yards on his seven carries and was targeted on two of his nine routes, securing both for an additional 18 yards. The fact that Gibbs received nine touches on only 19 snaps shows the Detroit Lions are committed to getting the ball in his hands. Gibbs’ role will grow each week, making his ECR of RB17 his floor. 

Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split touches in Week 1, with both backs earning eight. Warren appears to be the clear passing-down option at least through one week, out-targeting Harris six to two. The Pittsburgh Steelers now get the Cleveland Browns in a game with only a 40-point total. Cleveland’s defense held Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon to 53 yards last week. Harris is overvalued as the RB20 in the early ECR. 

Miles Sanders, Panthers

Miles Sanders conceded nine carries to Chuba Hubbard, with Hubbard seeing all third-down snaps. The preseason speculation about Sanders being a three-down back wasn’t the Week 1 reality. Sanders being ranked as a low-end RB2, while Hubbard carries an early ECR as RB53 that is not in line with what we saw last week. 

Brian Robinson, Commanders

Brian Robinson saw elite usage in Week 1, logging 19 carries compared with only three for Antonio Gibson. Robinson was surprisingly active in the passing game, running 18 routes to Gibson’s 17. Robinson has a tough matchup at Denver, but his projected volume at a $5,200 price tag is interesting for those who need a low-priced second running back.

Dameon Pierce, Texans

Dameon Pierce disappointed as road underdog against a tough Ravens defense. Pierce should have both more opportunity and find more running room at home against the Colts. Pierce is a high-floor volume play with touchdown upside.

Wide Receivers 

Calvin Ridley, Jaguars

Calvin Ridley’s preseason excellence continued into his regular season debut. He posted eight catches for 101 yards and one touchdown. I will be massively overweight on Ridley as Lawrence’s go-to receiver in a game expected to be the week’s highest-scoring contest. His ECR of WR12 and DraftKings salary ($7,200) are too low.

Garrett Wilson, Jets

Garrett Wilson averaged 3.7 receptions for 45 yards in seven games with Zach Wilson last season. A spectacular touchdown reception saved his stat line on Monday night, but it is hard to overstate how bad Zach Wilson being under center is for Garrett Wilson. Add in the Jets being on the road at Dallas, and Zach Wilson’s ECR of WR14 is far too high. 

Nico Collins, Texans

Nico Collins secured six of 11 targets for 80 yards as the Houston Texans’ No. 1 receiver. Houston gets a vulnerable Colts defense at home. Still, Collins is the WR47 in the early ECR, making him a value at $4,800 on DraftKings. I will not be overweight on Collins. Robert Woods also saw 11 targets last week, and Tank Dell is lurking, but I will prioritize having some exposure.

Zay Jones, Jaguars

Zay Jones seems to have the WR2 spot opposite Ridley locked up. Jones out-snapped Christian Kirk (61-43), ran more routes (32-24) and saw more targets (6-2). Despite this, Kirk checks in as the WR30 with Jones as the WR50 in the early Week 2 ECR. Jones is severely underpriced, and Lawrence/Ridley/Jones triple stacks are in play this week in a projected shootout vs. Kansas City. 

Mike Williams, Chargers

Mike Williams is being overlooked against a pass-funnel Titans defense that allowed Derek Carr to throw for 305 yards last week. The Chargers were content to lean on the run last week, but with Austin Ekeler out against a stout Titans run-defense, the high-flying Chargers passing attack may be on display Sunday, making Williams undervalued.

Treylon Burks, Titans

As of Saturday afternoon, DeAndre Hopkins looks highly questionable. Treylon Burks was one of my favorite value plays at $4,500 on DraftKings, but if Hopkins were to sit, Burks seems locked into double-digit targets in a potential shootout.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta, Lions

Sam LaPorta secured each of his Week 1 targets and is an inexpensive way to get a piece of the Lions passing offense in a projected shootout. 

Luke Musgrave, Packers

Luke Musgrave turned his three receptions into 50 yards. He was wide open on an overthrow that would have allowed him to surpass double-digit PPR points had the throw been accurate. It seems a matter of time before Musgrave has his breakout game. His ECR (TE20) and DraftKings price ($3,200) do not reflect his potential ceiling. 

Zach Ertz, Cardinals

It was remarkable enough that Zach Ertz was active on opening weekend after tearing his ACL in Week 10 last season. Still, Ertz surpassed all expectations, securing six of 10 targets in his return. Ertz offered little after the catch, only totaling 21 yards. 

In a week characterized by star tight ends sitting out and others performing historically poorly, Ertz’s six catches were enough to have him finish as a low-end TE1, even with the minuscule yardage total. A home contest vs. the Giants could see the veteran perform similarly. 

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.